Wednesday 11/14

Overall: 8-10 (-1.4 units)


Bonnies -2.5 (1 unit)
Big change in style this year for SBU after losing Nicholson to the NBA. Schmidt is an avowed up-tempo coach who changed his philosophy to a more deliberate halfcourt offense in order to accommodate Nicholson's unique skill set. Now, he returns to his up-tempo, high-energy roots and has a plethora of athletic guards with which to work. Mosley, Gathers, Kloof, and Wright all played roles in last year's surprising postseason run and provide SBU with the second-best backcourt depth in the conference (behind La Salle). The Bonnies also get Michael Davenport (near 40% 3pt shooter in '10-11) back in the lineup after missing last season with a shoulder injury. In the opener against Bethune-Cookman, SBU struggled against the crawling pace and packed-in zone en route to putting up only 65 points. Tonight, they'll face a Cornell team that plays a traditional man-to-man and has expressed a commitment to running more this season after losing last year's two top scorers. This Cornell team is very different from previous iterations, all of which had a slew of outside shooters and did most of their damage from the perimeter. Now, they will have to score in the paint, a tough task against a physical SBU defense led by an emerging big guy in Youssou N'Doye, who had 5 blocks in the opener. SBU will struggle this season against teams who can slow the pace and defend in the halfcourt (see: Louis, Saint), but the matchup against Cornell tonight is one in which the Bonnies should have a bunch of tangible advantages.

Toledo +14 (1 unit)
Not much here other than the line value I believe I am getting with a team that played two poor games going against an opponent built to win ugly and coming off of the first 100-point showing in the Jacobson era. Not much gap in the overall talent level.

Lean:
Santa Clara +14

GL Mate

GL tongiht!

My book has Santa Clara -12, I think they can win outright.  Toledo has been terribly disappointing this year, maybe they are packing it in (unlike UConn) being one of the 3 teams on academic postseason suspension this year.

Would not bet the Bonnies until they prove that they are as good as without Nicholson. Have seen the NCAA Tournement and they are just struggeling without Nicholson and are greating a lot of TO s. First game was a shock for me to see how bad they are executing the offense. Cornell will be there for revange and they kept the game close last year until the last minutes. Nicholson was 10-10 from FT line in this game and came up with over 20 points. Just an even game in my eyes.

Buddha - Is that from Blue Ribbon? Here's what Courtney told the local Press and Sun Bulletin in the November 9th season preview entitled "Run, Red, Run: Courtney to Oversee High-Tempo Squad"


“I think that’s probably also a reason for the excitement, because we’re extremely athletic, extremely fast, and we’ll probably be extremely exciting to watch, sometimes to our detriment. If you play at that tempo, you have to realize there are going to be some mistakes involved.”

"Because of our style of play and the quick tempo, you need several guys in the rotation, and we’ve been able to establish those guys early because we’ve been healthy."

"We’ll be a little different in that I don’t think we’ll shoot quite as many threes as we have the last two years,” said Courtney. “We’ll look to get it inside and drive to the basket and get fouled a little bit more. We have a lot of versatile guys that can do a lot of things, so we have several guys that can dribble it up the floor, we have several guys that can post up, we have several guys that can shoot perimeter jump shots. You’ll see guys doing a little bit of everything."

Link to article:
https://www.pressconnects.com/article/20121109/SPORTS03/311090068/Cornell-basketball-preview-Run-Red-run?odyssey=nav|head

not really going out on a limb there....

As I suggested in the writeup, the offensive struggles could at least partially be attributed to Bethune-Cookman walking the ball up the floor, getting back defensively, and staying in a packed-in 2-3 zone for the entire game. The Bonnies' zone offense was not particularly good even with Nicholson, so to see them struggle against it in the opener was no surprise.

That was from Blue Ribbon.  I am assuming neither of us saw the game with WMU, so we are going from reports/previews.  In your story he admits running and playing fast could be "to our detriment."  And they don't want to shoot 3's.  Doesn't sound too high-tempo.  

Even without Mitchell and Conklin it is still going out on a limb to call a Santa Clara outright win in StLouis.  The Broncos will really struggle to score against this team.  Santa Clara couldnt even win a game in the WCC last season.  The WCC is not exactly stacked at the bottom of the conference either.

^he was messing with him because he wrote -12

Jfen, thoughts on the st bonny game going over 132?

thanks for your info. just don t trust this bonnaventure squad withour nicholson. shame on me i didn t see the game vs. Bethune-Cookman. I will enjoy the game and make my decision later on in the season. first weeks are killing me right now, like most good cappers do here in the forum.....but they will come

Thanks for the writeup on the Bonnies I was going to ask your opinion.

Really like the Wisc - Florida Over 22 as Wisc can still shoot the 3 ball. Berggren , Bruesewitz , Brust , are all capable. Havent seen the freshman guard Marshall from yet. Also rebounding they will get some freebies. Florida with Murphy what a beast Boyton will get his points as well as Young. I also think Wilbekin will play in this game. Think Florida covers this spread also.

Probably too many players not playing right now for you to have a play here but any thoughts?

Alright, Neil and Riccio talked me into the over, which was my initial lean on the first run-through of the card. I think I also mentioned the Bonnies being a big "over" team in my March writeups once Nicholson departed.

Bonnies @ Cornell Over 134 (1 unit)

The best play on the board would have been the UAB-Creighton over, but naturally, like 95% of totals thus far, it is not lined. If UAB employs its new up-tempo offense, Creighton might hang 100.

GL jfen!!

That S.Clara line falling it seems,11.5 now from your +14,someone thinks its a play,
you going to add it?

J-fen as you can see I never post on the boards but have  been a reader of yours for a good while now. I wasn't sure where to post this so figured I would try here.  I know you're great at and enjoy picking college basketball but I also look forward to your college football picks weekly. I haven't seen you post much lately in terms of college football. I know you said your trying to be selective. Was wondering do you like anyone this week in cfb? Thanks! Keep up the great work!

Jfen,

he obviously meant +12

JEG - Yah, I think they cover, but the line has dropped too much for me to get involved.

wmcintyre - Slowed down with CFB to allow more time for CBB and beginning to prep for my exams. I will post on Saturday if I decide to play anything.

Kdubb - CU probably covers that number but I like UAB's athletes and think they may excel in Haase's system. Curious to see how it turns out without having money invested.

11/14 (1 unit each)
Toledo +14
Bonnies -2.5
Bonnies @ Cornell Over 134
Wisconsin +11.5/Creighton -10 -120

Good luck, guys.

Good luck, J.

Most guys are getting theit tars back it seems.
I dont see mine though.