YTD: 0-0
2011-'12: 34-23
2010-'11: 2-3-1
2009-'10: 14-7
Finally the wait is over and college basketball is back. There will definitely be one total I'll be playing tomorrow night (maybe more) and will post write up in a little bit.
Since the end of last year, I've also enjoyed discussing games via Twitter (and it shouldn't be hard to find me)
Good luck and may everyone have a profitable season.
Play: Fordham / Texas St Over 148
Last year Texas St was the 7th fastest adjusted tempo team in the country, averaging 72.6 possessions per game. Their non-conf schedule included 10 games against D1 teams. Not one of these games had less than 71 possessions. And besides a game vs Texas that landed on 138 (Texas had #44 adj def eff), none of the nine other non-conf games had a final total less than 151 (average was 168.9 points).
The game that did land on 151 was vs the same Fordham team they face Friday. The key to looking back to this game is the fact that it still went over this posted total of 148 despite both teams combining to shoot 48-131 (36.7%) and 11-49 (22.4%) from behind the arc. The game saw 75 possessions and despite the horrible shooting, the 81 points scored by Fordham was a season high.
Combined with the fact that the 7 other opponents the Rams faced last year in the top 75 with respect to pace, they averaged giving up 73.7 points -- the ingredients are there for an over. Just as they were in a game vs a similar-paced UMass (# 3 tempo) team last year that saw an 80-76 final.
I also expect Fordham to improve upon their 0.929 points per possession (#289) they averaged last year to maximize their opportunities in a game that should approach at least 75 possessions. And comments in preseason publications show that Coach Pecora is encouraged by the early play of his young backcourt to back this sentiment up.
Good luck if you decide to make a play
I expect that nropp will be posting a 10,000 word opus on this total later today and this is not intended to steal his thunder at all. As most of you know, the majority of my posts are stat centric. But a great situation is available today on a total that has not accounted for a coaching change at one of the schools involved in the match-up. With the line still readily available, I am adding:
Play: Miami OH / NC State Over 134
Much has been made about the heralded freshman class Gottfried has brought to Raleigh this season and expectations are high as the Wolfpack enter the season ranked 6th in the country. This talent infusion should only enhance an NC State offense that was the 14th most efficient offense in the country last year averaging 1.126 pts per possession while also being the 2nd fastest paced team in the ACC (#87 nationally).
But more importantly is the situation we get in tonight’s opener. The “low” total is being influenced by a Miami OH team that has operated at a plodding pace on offense over the last decade. Since the 2003 season, their tempo rankings have been 322, 318, 314, 320, 330, 334, 319, 337, 281, and last year at 339!! But alas, Charlie Coles has retired, and in comes the new style of John Cooper (from Tennessee State), that is also more predicated on pressure defense. Case in point, Cooper’s Tigers generated turnovers on 22.4% of their defensive possessions last year (#44 nationally) and an increase in pace is a natural result.
The offensive fire power of NC State and the change in style of Miami OH should be more than enough to push this over tonight’s total.
Good luck if decide to make a play.
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