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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Sunday Hoops
nropp11
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#1
Posted: 3/25/2012 9:42:41 AM
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 63-44, +65.90
February Leans: 56-49
March: 62-43, +84.35
March Leans: 42-37

The two games on Sunday really come down to a simple two-word question.

What if?


Baylor/Kentucky
Coming into this tournament, I wrote down five teams who could give Kentucky problems:

Syracuse
Ohio State
Baylor
Louisville
Wichita State

That's it. Syracuse came before Melo. Wichita State came on the belief of having an experienced team who could knock down shots, and some decent size. Ohio State, well, you have tournament experience and some decent shooting. Louisville, again, prep time, and revenge. Which leads me to Baylor. Before I get into this, realize this, yes, I believe Kentucky is the best team in the country. They have the best starting five of any team, they have the most future NBA players and all that jazz, and yes, they are probably the most verstaile and well-rounded team this tournament has to offer. What I'm going after is value. Always will, always have, always and always. This is like those certain occassions where you find yourself at the OTB or the horsetrack. Should I take the easy way out and hit the horse that's 1/8...no way he can lose right? That's not me. I find that sliver of hope, the itsy bitsy teeniest ounce of value in another horse. whether it's the jockey, the trainer, the fact that the horse just put blinkers on, the fact that the horse is due for a big payday, whatever. Thus, Baylor holds value. As I've mentioned, Kentucky is pretty damn good. They exploit teams not only with their athleticism, but the size advantage they hold on teams at just about every position is a tremendous advantage, and an advantage they've lived up to on the year. That sort of changes with Baylor. And here comes the What if? What if Scott Drew plays man to man? Baylor will lose by a ton. No other explanation, if Drew comes out in a man-to-man as he has exhibited the past few games, Baylor doesn't hold an ounce of value. None. Zilch. Zero. Nada. Capiche. Rip it up, and move on. But, if he can come out in a zone, which also goes back to a heavier emphasis on Louisville and Pitino and my knowledge of what he'll do in these types of situations already having gone through it once this year, Baylor should have a chance to come out victorious. Really, it's that simple. IF, and I stress, the IF, Baylor can play zone, they will have a chance. When a team goes zone, and Kentucky hasn't seen all that much of it this year, it neutralizes...
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nropp11
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#2
Posted: 3/25/2012 9:42:59 AM
... Kentucky in the half court, and forces them to hit outside shots. Can they hit outside shots? Sure, they can. They are actually pretty good at it. But they have they HAD to hit outside shots this year? My answer to that is no. They have not relied on it in the least bit. This isn't the type of team that can rely on it with the way that they're built. In regards to the zone, what's not to like about Baylor. They bring in just as much of an effective height, in fact, they're taller. The only position they don't have an advantage in the match-ups is the PG spot, but if this game is played at the fast tempo that I'm expecting, I don't care about the PG spot. Baylor masks that advantage in a zone defensively, and takes advantage of it offensively in transition. In regards to the tournament thus far, with a few upsets prior, Kentucky's really had it easy. They played WKU on short prep, main goal, don't foul. They succeeded, faced an Iowa State team where the main goal was to guard the three-point line. They succeeded, faced an Indiana team on a revenge situational spot where Indiana was shorthanded from the first meeting and succeeded, and scored 100+ in the process (and it just so happens that was their first 70+ possession game since the first Louisville meeting). Again, this comes down to what if? I don't have the greatest trust in Scott Drew here, but I think it's a no-brainer. If he sees it differently, OK, mark it as a loss and on to next weekend. But if not, you have a Baylor team who is awfully acustommed to playing in a two-day bounce back having been apart of the B-12 and ESPN agreement for Big Monday, against a young Kentucky team who hasn't been dealt that hand all too often. Add in the non-height advantage that Kentucky usually has in match-ups, along with an oh-so HUGE lookahead to a rival (I'm probably looking ahead more than they are), I think you get some value.

Kansas/North Carolina
I've been consistent on Kansas all year. Wrong at times, yes. Right at other times, yes. They're just missing something. I don't know what it is, but there is just some sense of urgency missing it's hard to grasp. Which leads me to the big what if? What if Kendall Marshall doesn't play? Well, defensively, Stillman White guards either Taylor, Johnson, or Releford. That's a mismatch, and Bill Self exploits mismatches more than any coach in the country. Offensively, Stillman White is guarded by Johnson who has four inches and pressures very well. Lose/Lose for Carolina, here. Again, I go back to Kansas missing something and not being able to pinpoint exactly what. I think that gets thrown out the window here. Asking UNC to score in the half-court here is a bit too much. Can they score in transition? Sure, but the offensive system that Kansas employs doesn't really allow all that many transition opportunities. So the big question is Marshall. I guess if Marshall does play, I don't really put a bump in UNC's defensive prowess. Still a mismatch wherever, and something Self will exploit early and often. Offensively, UNC becomes a bit dangerous, but again, only in transition which probably isn't going to happen much. If you've seen UNC in the half court, they're extremely vulnerable against teams that can defend well (averaged just under a point per possession against good defenses in the half court). Marshall at full strength, I probably still take a chance, and assuming he isn't (which is impossible with a broken bone in your hand), I push that chance.

5* Baylor +8
3* Kansas -1.5

Lean: Baylor/Kentucky Under 148.5
Lean: Kansas/North Carolina Under 143

Nothing on the other game. Felt like I was on a tilta-whirl trying to figure that one out (fast vs. slow, Oakland on the road, yadda yadda).

GL
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Raidernator76
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#3
Posted: 3/25/2012 9:46:35 AM
i dont know why people are on unc? both teams didnt look that good their last game but imm guessing almost losing to ohio loses credibility.
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#4
Posted: 3/25/2012 9:59:22 AM
woke up with baylor on my mind. i am a diehard uk fan(i know, go ahead...)and am proud of these cats. but the bears have been on quite a run.  uk could even lose today!  i feel good taking the points in this spot as well. best of luck and thanks.
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#5
Posted: 3/25/2012 10:00:22 AM
nice write up--cats in a blow out,,hopefully the zone wont work and the bears try and run with the cats
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#6
Posted: 3/25/2012 10:07:49 AM
i hate to see people taking kentcky gets me nervous but i am with you on baylor +8
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#7
Posted: 3/25/2012 10:11:38 AM
i thought they put kentucky by 8  for a reason.im on the fence still
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#8
Posted: 3/25/2012 10:13:09 AM
Lean the same way on both _ GL today boys
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#9
Posted: 3/25/2012 10:19:22 AM
on it.
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#10
Posted: 3/25/2012 10:21:09 AM
BAYLOR BEARS....just seems right
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#11
Posted: 3/25/2012 10:21:49 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lumpsluck:

woke up with baylor on my mind. i am a diehard uk fan(i know, go ahead...)and am proud of these cats. but the bears have been on quite a run.  uk could even lose today!  i feel good taking the points in this spot as well. best of luck and thanks.
Pierre Jackson has to have the game of his life. I can't keep asking for Perry Jones III to step up and be great. Just not going to happen yet.
Not just pointing the finger at you but for Baylor to win today PJ III would have to have his emergence as the player he can be, and p. jackson would have to have a tremendous game just to keep this game close until the end. Kentucky wins this game and Baylor could easily lose by 10. The biggest win in the history's program is what would happen if they did upset Kentucky and there is a list of reasons for that. Waste of space to list the Wildcats positives in this game. Baylor does match up I'l say that, but not well enough..You should get back on your team lumpluck with ml and play it safe................... gl every1 2nite
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#12
Posted: 3/25/2012 10:23:47 AM
http://www.sacbee.com/2012/03/24/4363748/kentucky-could-face-trouble-against.html
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#13
Posted: 3/25/2012 10:25:19 AM
Part that worries me


"Drew cautioned reporters from assuming a zone defense made for a wooden stake to drive into Kentucky's heart. Baylor will play man-to-man or zone or whatever proves effective.

"At the end of the day, length doesn't matter if you can't keep the ball in front of you," the Baylor coach said. "I think we've gotten better defensively at doing that.

"It is much harder to shoot over a 6-10 (or) 6-11 guy than it is a 6-foot guy. But at the same time, first and foremost, I think if we're not back on defense, it doesn't matter if we're tall or small."


Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2012/03/24/4363748/kentucky-could-face-trouble-against.html#storylink=cpy


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#14
Posted: 3/25/2012 10:28:16 AM
have great respect for u--- think ur one of the most savyy cappers about cbb---- but i sincerely know baylor is just too sloppy with the ball, is not disciplined, and go in to some scoring droughs--and that against a KTY team that is relentless, well coached,focused---u know what they said

is just pain dumb and stupid to stand up in the middle of a highway when u see a freightrain headding ur way--so --- i wont bet against kty---bol---like ur leans and the kansas play
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#15
Posted: 3/25/2012 10:31:41 AM

"As I've mentioned, Kentucky is pretty damn good. They exploit teams not only with their athleticism, but the size advantage they hold on teams at just about every position is a tremendous advantage, and an advantage they've lived up to on the year."

Ky offsets whatever matchup Baylor possesses in the paint by pressuring Baylor's guards...Ky will use its athleticism and height advantage at the PG & SG positions to shut Baylor down. Just take a look at what they've done in games vs. FL & Vandy the past couple of years (with the exception of the recent SEC tourney games.) Ky has stepped up their level of play considerably since the SEC tourney and that's what you will see today.

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#16
Posted: 3/25/2012 10:41:22 AM

Agree with shark, I think Kentucky will be just to much for Baylor and it wil get ugly.  KY easily beat an Iowa St team who just handled Baylor a few weeks back.  Leaning Kansas and under.

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#17
Posted: 3/25/2012 10:54:07 AM
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#18
Posted: 3/25/2012 10:55:07 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Raidernator76:

i thought they put kentucky by 8  for a reason.im on the fence still

I think the line has to be 8...I mean it was 10 for Indiana and Kentucky won by 12.  I didn't think they would open this line any lower than 7.  BOL

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#19
Posted: 3/25/2012 10:55:26 AM
like the plays, gl nropp
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#20
Posted: 3/25/2012 10:55:57 AM
Good write-ups, but kind of sems like you are trying to convince yourself why Baylor might be the play. Personally I have seen enough of both teams to know UK is way more effecient on both ends. Baylor does match up athletically, but you could also loo at it the other way....Baylor hasn't played against athleticism like UK before. I'm taking UK, but you have me at least thinking about it more.
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#21
Posted: 3/25/2012 10:56:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lumpsluck:

woke up with baylor on my mind. i am a diehard uk fan(i know, go ahead...)and am proud of these cats. but the bears have been on quite a run.  uk could even lose today!  i feel good taking the points in this spot as well. best of luck and thanks.

Much respect to your team and good luck!  Just know that our boys won't be dazzled by the history of UK.
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#22
Posted: 3/25/2012 11:03:20 AM
I'm not saying we'll win or cover... but most of you are acting as if this is a regular season game.  UK is every way better than BU, but it's the tournament ... which we've seen bring out the best in teams.  And it's not like Calipari has the best resume when it comes to the tournament either.

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#23
Posted: 3/25/2012 11:19:08 AM
Both over yesterday-- gotta love the unders today!!!!!
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#24
Posted: 3/25/2012 11:21:26 AM
Neil, youre something else when it come to indepth analysis.  Do you do NBA games too?  If not do you have someone on here that you trust?
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#25
Posted: 3/25/2012 11:29:19 AM
GL Nropp!
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