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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Tuesday Hoops
nropp11
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#1
Posted: 3/20/2012 3:44:37 PM
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 63-44, +65.90
February Leans: 56-49
March: 57-40, +82.65
March Leans: 34-35


Spot play. Few of them actually within the same play, and a few spots that I have a tough time avoiding. First, Oregon just scored 100 points, the first time that’s happened since 2008 against a Division 1 opponent. They completed that feat in just 76 possessions. In fact, in both post-season NIT games, they have now scored 96 and 108 in a couple up-tempo ballgames. Tonight’s game should feature some up-tempo as well, or should it? Both meetings this year only hit 70 possessions. In each meeting, one team flat out tanked on the other’s home court and the games really weren’t close. Which leads me to the next spot – and it may not seem all that bad, but it holds value. Back in early February, Washington went into Oregon as a 1 point favorite and got waxed. Yes, you read that right. You want value? Washington was a 1 point favorite AT Oregon. If you watched the game, it was pretty obvious that Washington wasn’t all there. They looked terrible as they often did on the road (pointed out Washington’s road struggles quite a bit this year). They’re just a completely different team when they get away from Alaska Airlines Arena. Not only that, but they were faced with a difficult task in this one prior to the ball even being tipped in the air. The normal 10 minute drive from the team hotel took an hour as they were stuck in traffic caused by an accident, and they arrived just in time for the warm-up. Now most of you will say oh that isn’t all that big of a deal, yadda, yadda, OK, it probably isn’t. But on the mental side of things, it is. Players have pre-game rituals, routines, whatever you want to call it and it will affect teams from the mental standpoint. Enough of the Dr. Phil stuff and more focus on revenge. First place team runs into some trouble and shows up late and tanks, yet still ends up winning the conference. Getting the better defense with height in a revenge spot is key as well. Back to the value, the line just doesn’t make sense. Washington was a 9 point favorite in this spot earlier in the year. What’s changed? Oregon’s offense found its rhythm? They’re scoring more now, so they hold more value? I guess that could be true, but here’s what the defense has done in this same time frame in terms of how many points per possession they’ve given up:

1.28
1.03
1.02
0.75 (Utah – #317 offense)
1.16
1.09

So, while the Ducks have looked good offensively, they’ve looked just as bad defensively. This one should be a battle as both teams hate each other and everything depending on each other’s season comes down to a 3rd and final meeting between the two. The road or home team? The bad or good defense? The team coming into a letdown spot after just scoring 100+ or the team coming in having held a couple pretty good offenses well below a point per possession? Pretty simple spot play for me here tonight.

5* Washington -4.5

GL
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#2
Posted: 3/20/2012 3:48:52 PM
Thanks for your time and efforts NROPP.

Best of luck to all.
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#3
Posted: 3/20/2012 3:49:38 PM
I had Washington in that game when they got waxed...like the spot....good luck
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#4
Posted: 3/20/2012 3:51:55 PM
Best of luck Brother! Always Appreciated and much respect for you Neil !       
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#5
Posted: 3/20/2012 3:52:28 PM
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#6
Posted: 3/20/2012 3:53:17 PM
BOL tonight Ropp...
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#7
Posted: 3/20/2012 3:57:33 PM
Mahalo Bruddah N
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#8
Posted: 3/20/2012 4:00:03 PM
Any thoughts on total in Rice-Oakland,160-
Rice seems ok running but will they in this one?
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#9
Posted: 3/20/2012 4:00:29 PM

Another 5* on it with ya.

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#10
Posted: 3/20/2012 4:01:07 PM
As always - 
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#11
Posted: 3/20/2012 4:01:26 PM
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#12
Posted: 3/20/2012 4:07:29 PM
I hate disagreeing with two of my favorite cappers here.  I like Drexel against Umass opposite of oddsbuster and I like Oregon.  Not betting it but I almost did until I saw you take Washington.  Like  I mentioned for the Drexel game I look deeper into reverse on no line movement as opposed to handycapping the game because I could never do that.  By the way thanks alot for that Mercer Bet Saturday.  I was on a St. Patty's day Pub Crawl, several hours into it, when I saw your POY #4 I dropped a dime on it (much larger than my normal bet) influenced by several hours of consuming green beverages, those damn green beverage get ya every time.
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#13
Posted: 3/20/2012 4:11:01 PM
i wish i woulda seen this play before i put in  my picks for the day, gotta limit my action, nropp a former co worker of mine put me on to ya, so far what ive seen is impressive bol!
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#14
Posted: 3/20/2012 4:11:22 PM
,gL
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#15
Posted: 3/20/2012 4:30:12 PM
NROPP
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#16
Posted: 3/20/2012 4:41:23 PM
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nropp11
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#17
Posted: 3/20/2012 4:43:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEG53:

Any thoughts on total in Rice-Oakland,160-
Rice seems ok running but will they in this one?

Sounds like Rice wants to slow them down, but I'm not sure how beneficial it is to do so. If you look at the course of their season, the offense was non-existent in a slow setting. They need to play fast in order to score. Scary game.
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#18
Posted: 3/20/2012 4:46:29 PM
Any Thoughts on Drexel/Umass 141 Total? any insight woule be greatly appreciated !
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nropp11
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#19
Posted: 3/20/2012 4:51:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bail8gent:

Any Thoughts on Drexel/Umass 141 Total? any insight woule be greatly appreciated !

Should be a much slower game than what Umass is accustomed to, and they're playing their third roady within a week.

Spaz hit the nail on the head with the styles and possession total differences here.
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#20
Posted: 3/20/2012 4:58:00 PM
Damn, Neil....I keep being amazed at how much you know ! Thanks for sharing!




p.s.  Cheers, on Mercer, Candyman!!
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#21
Posted: 3/20/2012 5:10:56 PM
UMASS +8 (-110) Game ...Risking 6 Units


When looking at this game I have found one area where UMASS has the obvious advantage and that is height and rebounding ability. I believe UMASS will have the edge on the glass which will create second chance points and keep this game within reach of winning straightup or at least covering this rather large game spread. Drexel's biggest guy on the floor during most of the game will be Senior Forward Samme Givens who stands 6' 5" 220 Lbs. and is there teams leading rebounder averaging only 7.8 rebounds per game. The teams 2nd leading rebounder is 6' 9" Junior Daryl McCoy who doesn't play enough minutes to make a huge impact in this game, but he only averages 6.7 rebounds per game. McCoy has only had a total of 9 rebounds in the past 3 games combined. Drexel is a short team, they average 35 rebounds per game this season. In this past game versus N Iowa they struggled on the glass and it showed, it was the teams main problem in that game which allowed N Iowa second chance opp's and Drexel barely pulled out the win by 2 pts as a 7 pt home favorite. In that game N Iowa out-rebounded Drexel 30 to 20, 7 to 3 in offensive boards, bc of that N Iowa managed 4 more FG attempts in that game. On the flip side, UMASS rebounds real well as a team, they average 40 rebounds per game. UMASS features 6' 9" Soph Raphiael Putney who averages 6.1 rpg, 6' 9" Senior Sean Carter who averages 6.6 rpg but has come on very strong lately and is a difference maker on both sides of the court, he as a total of 39 rebounds in his past 4 games (11,12,8 & 8). 6' 7" Junior Terrell Vinson averages 5 rpg, and the guards rebound well with 5' 9" PG speedster Chazz Williams from Brooklyn, NY averaging 4.4 rpg, 6' 5" Jessie Morgan averages 3 rpg. Morgan is from Philly, PA and will be playing his 4th game this season in his hometown of Philly, look for him to have a great game tonight in front of fam and friends, he averages 10.1 ppg and recently had 21 points in this huge win over Temple. In UMASS' last games versus the tough and physical Miss State Bulldogs UMASS controlled the glass and that imo was the eventual difference in the game as UMASS won in 2 OT, they beat Miss St on the glass to the tune of 51 to 38, on the offensive glass 19 to 10!! This gave UMASS 15 more FG attempts in the game! Last game out a huge win on the road again @ Seton Hall they did the exact same thing to the fiesty and talented Pirates, beating them on the glass 38 to 34. In that game Herb Pope had his way downlow with 15 rebounds but even with that as a team they out-rebounded the Pirates. Drexel is very good defensively, but they prefer to keep possessions low and with the above mentioned rebounding advantage for UMASS I see those extra possessions and shot attempts playing a crucial role in UMASS' cover of the spread tonight. Drexel wins 70-66 IMO.

Another sidenote:

Both UMASS coach Derek Kellogg and Drexel's Bruiser Flint know eachother VERY well, Bruiser coached at UMASS up until 11 years ago, Derek Kellogg played at UMASS and now HC. I believe this game comes down to the wire.

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#22
Posted: 3/20/2012 5:13:37 PM
UMASS +4.5 1H (-110) ...Risking 2 Units

2 TT: UMASS +11.5 & Washington -1 (-110 odds) ...Risking 2 Units

UMASS @ Drexel UNDER 141 (-110) ..Risking 2 Units
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#23
Posted: 3/20/2012 5:15:04 PM
Good luck NRopp! I will be tailing your Wash play!

What is your take on the line movement towards Drexel with most of the money being on UMASS? Line opened at +6.5 now is +8 currently?..thnx
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#24
Posted: 3/20/2012 5:16:52 PM

Wahington -5. lets get the

Turtle 

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#25
Posted: 3/20/2012 5:19:26 PM

Tough game for me to cap. I know the home team has ruled, so going that way. Also playing the under after reading JFen's great write-up

BOL Neil!

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