Under 134 ODU/Coastal Umass +7.5 LSU +7.5 under Weber/Utah Valley ?(currently 146 been letting it climb for two days - probably wait till right before tip)
It must be said that TOO MUCH is being made about the motivation angle all over the forum. It FEELS like it is a big difference maker, but if you really have watched the results its about 50/50 (like most other angles). It just feels that way because of when it hits everyone talks about it endlessly and when it doesn't nobody ever revisits the topic. Also, if a dog wins straight up (or even just covers) its ALWAYS mentioned that motivation was the key factor, but that is just revisionist history based on already knowing the results. The fact of the matter is that many of these home teams that are hosting "minor" tourney games in the cbi, cit, nit, just shouldn't be laying these kinds of points because a. they aren't a very good team in the first place, b. they shouldn't be given credit for being at home when the venues will be 50+% or more empty with no buzz, c. linemakers (and fans in general, and especially the selection committee) undervalues the second and third best teams from mid-major (or smaller) conferences so they have something to prove and a chip on their shoulder. Please just be aware that the motivation angle is just one angle to look at it as its already being vastly overused and overstated all this website.
Still looking: Iona, Cleveland St
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Conference Tourney: 15-10 (+6-units)
Under 134 ODU/Coastal Umass +7.5 LSU +7.5 under Weber/Utah Valley ?(currently 146 been letting it climb for two days - probably wait till right before tip)
It must be said that TOO MUCH is being made about the motivation angle all over the forum. It FEELS like it is a big difference maker, but if you really have watched the results its about 50/50 (like most other angles). It just feels that way because of when it hits everyone talks about it endlessly and when it doesn't nobody ever revisits the topic. Also, if a dog wins straight up (or even just covers) its ALWAYS mentioned that motivation was the key factor, but that is just revisionist history based on already knowing the results. The fact of the matter is that many of these home teams that are hosting "minor" tourney games in the cbi, cit, nit, just shouldn't be laying these kinds of points because a. they aren't a very good team in the first place, b. they shouldn't be given credit for being at home when the venues will be 50+% or more empty with no buzz, c. linemakers (and fans in general, and especially the selection committee) undervalues the second and third best teams from mid-major (or smaller) conferences so they have something to prove and a chip on their shoulder. Please just be aware that the motivation angle is just one angle to look at it as its already being vastly overused and overstated all this website.
Under 134 ODU/Coastal Umass +7.5 LSU +7.5 under Weber/Utah Valley ?(currently 146 been letting it climb for two days - probably wait till right before tip)
It must be said that TOO MUCH is being made about the motivation angle all over the forum. It FEELS like it is a big difference maker, but if you really have watched the results its about 50/50 (like most other angles). It just feels that way because of when it hits everyone talks about it endlessly and when it doesn't nobody ever revisits the topic. Also, if a dog wins straight up (or even just covers) its ALWAYS mentioned that motivation was the key factor, but that is just revisionist history based on already knowing the results. The fact of the matter is that many of these home teams that are hosting "minor" tourney games in the cbi, cit, nit, just shouldn't be laying these kinds of points because a. they aren't a very good team in the first place, b. they shouldn't be given credit for being at home when the venues will be 50+% or more empty with no buzz, c. linemakers (and fans in general, and especially the selection committee) undervalues the second and third best teams from mid-major (or smaller) conferences so they have something to prove and a chip on their shoulder. Please just be aware that the motivation angle is just one angle to look at it as its already being vastly overused and overstated all this website.
Still looking: Iona, Cleveland St
KP, Got U Mass & LSU also
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Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:
Conference Tourney: 15-10 (+6-units)
Under 134 ODU/Coastal Umass +7.5 LSU +7.5 under Weber/Utah Valley ?(currently 146 been letting it climb for two days - probably wait till right before tip)
It must be said that TOO MUCH is being made about the motivation angle all over the forum. It FEELS like it is a big difference maker, but if you really have watched the results its about 50/50 (like most other angles). It just feels that way because of when it hits everyone talks about it endlessly and when it doesn't nobody ever revisits the topic. Also, if a dog wins straight up (or even just covers) its ALWAYS mentioned that motivation was the key factor, but that is just revisionist history based on already knowing the results. The fact of the matter is that many of these home teams that are hosting "minor" tourney games in the cbi, cit, nit, just shouldn't be laying these kinds of points because a. they aren't a very good team in the first place, b. they shouldn't be given credit for being at home when the venues will be 50+% or more empty with no buzz, c. linemakers (and fans in general, and especially the selection committee) undervalues the second and third best teams from mid-major (or smaller) conferences so they have something to prove and a chip on their shoulder. Please just be aware that the motivation angle is just one angle to look at it as its already being vastly overused and overstated all this website.
Why LSU,just seems that Ore.can put up alot of points and not sure that LSU can, like Iona and Cleveland St though,missed your under which seems off to a good start, GL tonight
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Why LSU,just seems that Ore.can put up alot of points and not sure that LSU can, like Iona and Cleveland St though,missed your under which seems off to a good start, GL tonight
Waiting on word about the health of a few players - don't love the play by any stretch but would need confirmation of a few guys being 100% - my only other play will probably just be wash st
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Quote Originally Posted by Jaysvdubwhat:
you not going to play cle st?
or waiting on other gms to finish to decide?
Waiting on word about the health of a few players - don't love the play by any stretch but would need confirmation of a few guys being 100% - my only other play will probably just be wash st
Trying for a middle here - got 12.5 points to play with - there were a ton of possessions in the first half and hardly any free throws (just as I suspected) but with the prospects of a close(r) game and late free throws and Weber's ability to put up points - rather go for a middle and have a freeroll instead of the prospects of a painful bad beat.
I do not support this play if you don't have money on the game under and if you wanted to let it ride and feel good that these teams won't put up 88+ in the second half - I wouldn't blame you either for skipping this play.
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Added: Over 75.5 Weber/Utah (2nd half)
Trying for a middle here - got 12.5 points to play with - there were a ton of possessions in the first half and hardly any free throws (just as I suspected) but with the prospects of a close(r) game and late free throws and Weber's ability to put up points - rather go for a middle and have a freeroll instead of the prospects of a painful bad beat.
I do not support this play if you don't have money on the game under and if you wanted to let it ride and feel good that these teams won't put up 88+ in the second half - I wouldn't blame you either for skipping this play.
Might be way off on this one - San Fran played A TON of emotional, tough games at the end of the season, not sure what they have left in the tank, they also play zero defense, allowing team to shoot crazy percentages from the floor. Wash St suffered at the end of the season by playing teams that had already played them once and we comfortable playing against the Wash St schemes and such - just don't agree that San Fran should be laying 5.5 in this spot at all. Again, could be totally wrong on this one, but I'll take my chances
Card: ODU under 134 = Push Umass +7.5 = Win LSU +7.5 Weber under 146 Weber over 75.5 2nd half Wash St +5.5
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Added: Wash St +5.5
Might be way off on this one - San Fran played A TON of emotional, tough games at the end of the season, not sure what they have left in the tank, they also play zero defense, allowing team to shoot crazy percentages from the floor. Wash St suffered at the end of the season by playing teams that had already played them once and we comfortable playing against the Wash St schemes and such - just don't agree that San Fran should be laying 5.5 in this spot at all. Again, could be totally wrong on this one, but I'll take my chances
Card: ODU under 134 = Push Umass +7.5 = Win LSU +7.5 Weber under 146 Weber over 75.5 2nd half Wash St +5.5
HELLUVA MIDDLE I MISSED IT BUT GREAT CALL///I WAS JUST ON THE UNDER...LET ME KNOW IF U LIKE WASH ST 2H+4.. AM SURE YOU CAPPED IT WITH STATE HAVING GREAT JUST OF WINNING, IF NOT I WILL LAY OFF
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HELLUVA MIDDLE I MISSED IT BUT GREAT CALL///I WAS JUST ON THE UNDER...LET ME KNOW IF U LIKE WASH ST 2H+4.. AM SURE YOU CAPPED IT WITH STATE HAVING GREAT JUST OF WINNING, IF NOT I WILL LAY OFF
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