Tuesday Night Hoops

In two meetings this year with Portland State, Damian Lillard has gone for 40 and 38 points, respectively. He shot 25/41 from the floor. He was 14/22 from the three-point line. And he was 14/16 from the foul line. This is not the type of game for those looking for a nice physical and defensive approach. Both teams will get open shots, and both teams can light up the scoreboard on any given night. Neither team forces all that many turnovers, and both teams just look to keep you at bay and hope to outscore you. And despite the ability of Lillard to go off, I think Portland State holds some value tonight. If you look at the first two meetings, Weber State won both by final margins of 7 and 13. Portland State actually held a 7 point lead at the half in one of those games before posting a 30 point 2H. Those games only went 64 and 66 possessions. Talk about some high scoring games with very few possessions. The first meeting 169 points in 64 possessions! The second meeting 171 points in just 66 possessions. Those are some outrageous performances with both teams. So I’m not worried about offense on either side tonight as both will definitely have opportunities to score. What I am worried about is which Weber State team shows up, and how they respond. They just lost the conference tournament outright in this gym. They’re a team full of jump shooters, and they rely on the three-pointer quite a bit. The problem? A finesse team like this with a week off not the greatest of situations, especially against an experienced squad like Portland State who just played the other night (PSU starts 3 seniors, 2 juniors). Here’s Weber State’s points per possession with more than 6 days off last couple years:

0.98

0.91

1.22 (Idaho State = bad)

1.17

1.13

1.07

1.04

1.14

A couple impressive #’s in there, but nowhere near close to the 1.39 and 1.37 they posted against Portland State this year. In those games, Portland State posted PPP totals at 1.27 and 1.20. As you can see, I’m focusing on the offense. The team that makes shots will win this game, and more than likely the team that can take care of the ball late and scores with balance should have the team advantage over the team that’s going to force it into one player down the stretch. Don’t get me wrong, Lillard’s a beast. I don’t like the fact I’m going against him as he can put up 40 on any night. I’m basically banking on a reduction within the offense with the time off, a letdown coming off of losing the conference title, and a big fat look ahead to a revenge spot with Montana assuming they can get past this one. Now, Montana certainly has a better defense than most teams in the conference from a wide margin, but these Weber State point totals in this gym are borderline mysterious the last couple years:

51

56

61

58

Again, that probably don’t mean much, but it is what it is. Portland State in this gym:

64

70

58

65

All in all, this game comes down to offense. Which team is going to outscore the other? Lillard’s going to get his points, I am sure of that. I just need one player to mentally let down. So, which team is it? The young team coming off their worst performance of the season sandwiched in a redemption spot for the automatic bid with a week off, or the more experienced team who can score from anywhere, the one that led the conference in scoring, FG%, and one that placed more than one person on the all-conference first team, along with the fact that they did play a game within the past week and have double revenge? I think I’ll side with Portland State, here. They beat them last year, no reason they can’t do it again.

Another dumb under play in postseason by me, but I think its warranted. These two played about a week ago, so the familiarity with what each other do should help keep this game under the number. Both play at a fast pace, but both coaches aren’t nearly used to playing this fast so with something at stake and moving on to day #2 a priority, I think each will slow it up and make each possession valuable. It also helps that each team will use some sort of zone, probably. Both team strength’s are scoring on the interior, working the ball in and out, so that will take some time. Neither team can shoot it all that well, and while Villanova attacks a bit better than Rutgers, neither team makes it a point. Probably more of a hunch play than anything. Nova can defend it really well, they’ve just gone through spurts where they simply have shown the ability to not care. Rice is a defensive first coach. Has the makings of an under if Nova can actually show up and defend for a game, and this one stays out of OT.

That’s it for tonight. Card sucks.

GL

Was also curious if you had any thoughts on UofD/Valpo?

Thanks for putting in all the work so we can make bank! 

Add another to the list for this Valpo game.  BOL tonight