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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Wednesday Early Hoops
nropp11
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#1
Posted: 2/29/2012 11:38:12 AM
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 58-42, +55.60
February Leans: 55-45


Spot play. Coastal Carolina third straight on the road, VMI on short rest bouncing back in a Noon tip after having just played their lowest possession total of the season in a tough and physical grind it out game. Coastal Carolina will run at times, but they have a nice advantage in the paint here, so I expect them to pound it on the inside at every opportunity. Weird thing is these two teams have played each other the past three seasons at least three times with the conference tournament being the third meeting.

2009
First Meeting = 89 Possessions
Second Meeting = 84 Possessions
Conference Tournament Meeting = 80 Possessions

2010
First Meeting = 89 Possessions
Second Meeting = 76 Possessions
Conference Tournament Meeting = 70 Possessions

2011
First Meeting = 88 Possessions
Second Meeting = 80 Possessions
Conference Tournament Meeting = 71 Possessions

2012
First Meeting = 81 Possessions
Second Meeting = 73 Possessions
Conference Tournament Meeting = ???????

What’s this tell me? When there is something at stake, teams look for advantages against VMI. If Coastal Carolina can slow them down, and utilize their tremendous advantage down low, they don’t need to go into an up and down free flow style against VMI to beat them. VMI’s going to try and push, but bouncing back on short rest in an early game may be a cause for a bit of a slow start. Coastal Carolina’s defense is pretty sound, they don’t take many chances, and their best defense relies again on the interior. VMI has little to no interior scoring outside of transition play and isolation offense, so again, I think the Noon tip plays a key factor in forcing a team that shoots a ton of jump shots into making them. Not only the early tip, but bouncing back from an extremely awkward style and style they aren’t used to playing. I’m only playing the 1H. I do see value in the full game, I just think that oddsmakers think this game might be a bit closer than in the previous meetings, and if that’s the case, then I’m avoiding the 2H foulfest. These two have hung some pretty high 2H totals in recent meetings, especially in the conference tourney setting. Again, just a spot. Tough to avoid.

2* VMI/Coastal Carolina 1H Under 70
Lean: Coastal Carolina -7

Will have one more early in a bit…

GL
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#2
Posted: 2/29/2012 11:41:05 AM
With you on this one. Lets get it.  
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#3
Posted: 2/29/2012 11:42:53 AM
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#4
Posted: 2/29/2012 11:46:29 AM

Under looks good but if you look at the last game vmi shot like 27 percent from the field and 18 from the 3 point line which scares me a little cause now you gotta hope they can duplicate the same blue print and vmi will shoot that bad and in that game the total hit 145.

 

gl

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#5
Posted: 2/29/2012 11:48:23 AM

Can't get 1H on this one.

Looking at under 150.

What do you think Neil?

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#6
Posted: 2/29/2012 11:54:14 AM
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#7
Posted: 2/29/2012 11:55:27 AM
Gl Neil, the trends definitely say under here but I do like the game to go over.
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#8
Posted: 2/29/2012 11:56:25 AM
i got under 70.5 for the half, hope we win


GL on the card
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#9
Posted: 2/29/2012 12:00:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Onthereal:

Gl Neil, the trends definitely say under here but I do like the game to go over.
This guy won't score 26 today.
- Anthony Raffa scored a game-high 26 points as Coastal Carolina won its final regular season game 81-64 Saturday afternoon at Cameron Hall.

Chris Gradnigo added 16 points and had a team-high nine rebounds. Kierre Greenwood added to his defensive resume holding the Keydets' leading scorer Kieth Gabriel to 2-of-16 from the field.
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nropp11
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#10
Posted: 2/29/2012 12:08:01 PM
If there is one team within the Big South that I have followed more than any other over the course of the past few years, it has been Winthrop. Being the guy that enjoys a good defense, one could think that would be the reason. This is a team that has been extremely good at dictating tempo, and forcing games to come down to the defensive side of things. Generally, this is a team that can win games based on their defense with their pressure defense turning into offense. And that’s really been the problem in recent years with Winthrop. The offense has simply been non-existent. And, I’m OK with that here. This is one of those weird matchups where you get a decent offensive team that can’t defend against a decent defensive team that can’t score for the life of them. I’ll side with the defense in just about every scenario this occurs. Playing the angle of the better defensive team not being beat by the same team three times in a season. Campbell hasn’t won a conference tournament game since 2007, so they have no experience winning in this settling, while Winthrop has four senior starters, three of whom were a big part of their title run in 2010 (and two of them have shot better than 50% if you combine all their tourney appearances). Winthrop’s only played three games in the conference this year over 70 possessions, so I’m getting a Campbell offense that isn’t use to the slow setting and out of their rhythm. Campbell’s a team that attacks relentlessly, iso plays here and there, try to get to the hoop as much as they can, and it just doesn’t work in a slower setting. Campbell also uses a zone press, which certainly will open up opportunities for Winthrop to score in transition if they choose to do so. When you look at how the game’s going to be played, if Winthrop can take care of the basketball (which they do pretty well), they’re going to be the team with the extra opportunities in this matchup. Take a team with a bad offense, and get them in a press or get them up and down, and that bad offense very well can turn into easy buckets. Campbell’s also coming in here on the fourth straight roady. Anything else? Sure, Winthrop just played here Saturday in this gym so the familiarity will be present with the surroundings. Campbell’s last road win? Early February. Against? The #2 seed Coastal Carolina whom they would meet in the next round. Lookahead? I’m not saying it’s present, but they were the only team to beat Coastal Carolina twice this year. This game just comes down to what I trust, really. Do I trust the experience of having four senior starters who have taken part in what it takes to win a conference tournament and play excellent defense, or do I trust a hectic style on the road for the fourth straight playing in a style they despise against a team they already beat twice this season? Give me the defense and the experience. 

5* Winthrop +1.5

That's it for the day games.

GL
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#11
Posted: 2/29/2012 12:08:19 PM
Wow Gabriel with 10 of the first 12 points
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#12
Posted: 2/29/2012 12:16:37 PM
I am hearing Darren White is out.

Not sure how true it is, but line moving right now as we speak to Winthrop being favored.


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#13
Posted: 2/29/2012 12:18:44 PM
Toledo tonight nropp?  Like how they have been playing since @Ball St.
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#14
Posted: 2/29/2012 12:18:46 PM
got winthrop at +1 and 3 minutes later it's -1
Thanks Neil
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#15
Posted: 2/29/2012 12:26:23 PM
i doubt anyone could have predicted VMI would hit this many 3 pointers in the first half
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#16
Posted: 2/29/2012 12:31:28 PM

Winthrop still a play at -1?

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nropp11
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#17
Posted: 2/29/2012 12:33:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shadyejr:

i doubt anyone could have predicted VMI would hit this many 3 pointers in the first half

Insane in the membrane.
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nropp11
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#18
Posted: 2/29/2012 12:33:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by blocksnbooze:

Winthrop still a play at -1?


yah
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#19
Posted: 2/29/2012 12:39:06 PM
darn THIS THREAD.  What a waste of time and money reading this as if it mattered in the VMI/CC game.

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#20
Posted: 2/29/2012 12:43:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sharpstick:

I am hearing Darren White is out.

Not sure how true it is, but line moving right now as we speak to Winthrop being favored.


Where do you see this news?  Nothing on Campbell Univ Twitter.  Thanks Sharpstick in advance.

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nropp11
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#21
Posted: 2/29/2012 12:43:26 PM
1H = 31 possessions. Both teams shot over 50%, and over 60% from the three-point line. Got the possessions I wanted, just not the offensive output I was expecting, lol.
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#22
Posted: 2/29/2012 12:46:10 PM
pokerproerik ... YOU ARE THE WORST
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#23
Posted: 2/29/2012 12:46:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PokerProErik:

darn THIS THREAD.  What a waste of time and money reading this as if it mattered in the VMI/CC game.



gtfo bro, no1 wants you here anyway.
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#24
Posted: 2/29/2012 12:47:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CallMeGENO:

pokerproerik ... YOU ARE THE WORST

Cant be the worst when there is still someone that actually suggested taking the Under in this VMI/CC game.  That guy is the worst.

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#25
Posted: 2/29/2012 12:48:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dimedimenickel:

Where do you see this news?  Nothing on Campbell Univ Twitter.  Thanks Sharpstick in advance.


One of the guys who works in the back at the sportsbook I work at told me it, about 20 minutes before the line started moving.

Again, not sure if it is true, because I can't find anything about it either. 
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