Baylor / Texas Total

YTD: 24-14 (63.2%)

0-1 last play on 2/16, a frustrating loss on the UL-L / Denver over

Tonight’s small card provides a very similar situation to the opportunity we were able to cash last Monday.  And once again, it will involve an angle with a Baylor team whose year-to-date statistics don’t fully reveal a recent trend.

(Write up that follows will be very similar to what I posted last week for Iowa St / Baylor 1H Under)

Play: Baylor / Texas Under 64.5 First Half

Both teams come into tonight slightly below the national average of 66.4 possessions per game with respect to adjusted tempo. (Baylor 66.2, Texas 65.8). The deeper significance, however, is found when you compare the year-to-date averages with the recent results of Baylor. In their six conference games since 1/31, not one game has exceeded 65 total possessions, with the average being only 62.2 ppg (even more impressive considering the fact that the two fastest teams in the B12, Kansas and Kansas St, are factored into that average). Also worth noting is that the first half is 5-1 to the under in Baylor games during the month of February.

The cause for the decrease? Most would argue that it’s the typical grind of the conference season with teams playing that are very familiar with one another. But this year, the correlation to this belief might even be more prevalent due to an unprecedented scheduling quirk:

Big 12 teams have never had a more active January.  All teams will have played nine conference games (through January), more than ever because of the 18-game schedule in the 10-team league. Fatigue could come into play as the weeks continue.  (From the Kansas City Star, 1/31)

And just as this article projected, we’ve seen a sudden drop off in pace and offensive production in particular with Baylor. Highlighting this point further is the 63 possession grind that the Bears are coming off of this weekend vs Kansas St that saw a 57-56 final.

But why the 1^st half under vs the full game? Obviously, odds makers believe this will be a close game as the -2 spread indicates. Furthermore, Barnes knows this is a great chance for his Texas team to get a signature win at home as the Longhorns make a final push to make the tourney. Due to this, if his team is down late, I could see an abundance of fouling and late game scramble points. Hence, I do not want the full game under to be lost in the last minutes of the game because of this scenario.

Of course this could go over if either team gets hot early. However, the statistics would not point to a shootout as only Texas A&M and Texas Tech rank slower in conference in terms of adjusted tempo and both teams bring a top 50 adjusted defensive efficiency (less than .937 points per possession) to the game tonight.  In summary, I believe recent results support the opinion that points will be much harder to come by than season statistics would indicate tonight, especially with a focused Texas team playing with desperation in front of its home crowd.

Good luck if you decide to make a play

Interesting read, but also worth noting that 3 of their last 5 games came against B12 teams with adjusted defensive efficiencies ranked outside of the top 120 nationally (Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St)

 HAS VERY HIGH ODDS TO GO OVER

 damn