YTD: 20-13 (60.6%)
1-1 last night with an easy win on the Elon / Chattanooga over, and disappointing loss on the St. Mary’s / Gonzaga over with the Gaels having their third worst offensive output of the season only managing 59 points.
I typically sit on the sideline on Fridays, but couldn’t let this opportunity pass tonight
Play: Yale / Cornell Over 133
A very interesting dynamic sets up tonight when Yale travels to Ithaca to take on Cornell as they are the only two teams from the Ancient 8 that rank in the top 200 nationally with respect to pace. I think further value is created when considering the fact that tonight is first match-up for both teams in over a month (since 1/7) where they’ve actually gotten to face a team ranked in the top 200.
Reviewing non-conference results, Yale and Cornell are a combined 16-6 to tonight’s over number of 133 when facing teams in the top 250 (>64.9 possessions per game) – and 3 of the 6 that went under 133 landed on 132. The correlation is very significant when considering the fact that Yale comes in ranked #120 (67.5 ppg) and will be facing a Cornell team looking to run at home. Cornell (#34, 70.2 ppg) will actually be the second fastest team that Yale has faced this year behind Army. And for those that like historical comparisons, this year’s version of the Big Red is the fastest since 2004.
Now could this go under, of course it could. Both teams at times have struggled to score and come in averaging less than 0.981 points per possession. But just as with last night’s total involving the poor shooting teams Elon and Chattanooga, there should be more than enough scoring opportunities to compensate for the below average offensive efficiency for each team due to the pace of the game. With KenPom predicting 71 possessions, the total of 133 is too low for two teams that will be looking to get out in transition more than recent opponents have allowed them to.
Best of luck if you decide to make a play