Elon / Chattanooga Total

YTD: 19-12 (61.3%)

Won last night’s play on the Rice/Houston over

Play: Elon / Chattanooga Over 141

On the surface, this may be appear to be a high number considering the fact that the two teams involved average less than 0.959 points per possession. However, due to the style of play of both teams, there should be more than enough scoring opportunities to get this over.

Chattanooga comes in ranked #59 nationally with respect to adjusted pace at 69.1 ppg, and there are numerous factors that point towards an over tonight based on recent results. In their L7 games, they are averaging 71.4 possessions and have given up 75+ to every opponent except Davidson (ironic since Davidson is clearly the most offensively efficient team in the Southern Conference and had an off night, shooting only 39% in that game).

Similar results have been seen from Elon. The Phoenix come in as the 26^th fastest team in the country with an adjusted tempo of 70.9 ppg. What may be even more impressive is the fact that Elon averages 71.4 possessions per game through 12 conference games this year despite only 2 of those opponents ranked in the top 100 for pace.  Their 3 non-conference games vs teams ranked in the top 100 all went over tonight’s total as well (UMass, NC State, and UNC) and now get to face a Chattanooga team that won't hesitate to get out and run with them.

It’s obvious that both teams want to get up and down the floor. This was evident in their first match up of the season on 1/21. A game that saw an 88-87 final on 80 possessions! KenPom predicts 73 in tonight’s game--an extremely high number for a total set at 141.

Also, the over is also 5-1 in L6 meetings.

Good luck if you decide to make a play.

Wow, I hadn't seen the line movement upward already this morning as I was putting my notes together for the post. I actually like this one anywhere in the mid-140's.

Chattanooga has given up 81+ in 7 of its 12 conference games this year and Elon is the 2nd fastest team in the SC--great recipe for a track meet tonight

146½ now.

I know that Mason will be OUT tonight

Coach John Shulman stating that Zaccheus Mason will not play and Jahmal Burroughs is questionable

https://timesfreepress.com/news/2012/feb/09/utc-freshmen-getting-lots-of-playing-time-early/?sportscollege

Though it would be nice for both teams to have the full complement of players in uniform tonight, a couple of injuries does not worry me. I try to emphasize the style and tempo of play you can expect in a game when handicapping, which is especially important when analyzing totals. Regardless of who is in the line up, I think it's safe to say that both of these teams will get out and run tonight and push the pace of the game over 70 possessions. This is quantifiable opinion based on the the statistics and results each team has exhibited up to this point in the year.

However, I can understand the hesitation for some now that the number is hovering around 147 and a couple guys may be ruled out.

Good luck to those that have locked it in already