YTD 51-43 (+4.65 UNITS)
Yesterday 2-1-1
Ole Miss +6 (1 UNIT) - This Ole Miss team has won 3 of 4 since being blown out by LSU on the road in their SEC opener. Their only loss was in double OT at Auburn. If you know one thing about the SEC then you have to know that winning on the road is extremely tough and trying to cover 6 points is even tougher.
Florida is only 1-4 on the road this year. Two of those losses were to Ohio State and Syracuse but losing at Rutgers and Tennessee made this game a possible play tonight. The fact that they won at South Carolina does nothing for me. Ole Miss is unbeaten at home. They only have a couple of good wins at home. They beat a decent Miami team in OT and in their last game at home they beat Miss State. To be fair Miss State was coming off a win over Bama and looking at a road date at Vanderbilt.
This Ole Miss team isn't good at all on offense. They are flat out terrible from 3PT range. In their 2 SEC homes games they are a combined 4-20 and in SEC play overall they are 15-64. Despite those numbers they are still 3-2 in league play and have a great chance to go 4-2 at home tonight. I don't classify this as a flat spot for Florida but I would be shocked if Ole Miss and its HCA weren't a major factor tonight with the nationally ranked Gators coming to town.
The bottom line is that I will take the points with a decent Ole Miss club at home who has yet to taste defeat their house.
NOTE - The statistics don't really support this play but Ole Miss is pretty solid defensively and I think they can hang around in this one.
Wofford -9 (1 UNIT) - I really like this Wofford team. They are starting to shoot the ball much better and the defense has been much better since mid December. They have two seniors that get a lot of minutes but they are the go to guys on the offensive end and that is a nice luxury to have on the road. The Citadel is one of the worst ten teams in the country. Their offensive ratings are bad but their defense is even worse. I bet against them in their last game because they have been awful on the road but they gave a great effort at GA Southern before falling in double OT. Now 3 days later they come home to face one of the hotter teams in the Southern Conference. Wofford won their last road game over Furman by 7 and got that confidence boost from their first road win in the league. They will carry that over tonight and take care of a basketball team that will still be feeling sorry for itself after the tough loss on Monday.
NOTE: Wofford has a pretty big game at Charleston on Saturday and may be looking ahead. Despite that I still like this play.
LMU +7 (1 UNIT) - LMU took care of business on the road last week with wins over BYU and Santa Clara. Those two wins were off the heels of a 4 point home loss to Gonzaga. This team has won 6 of 8 but those two losses were both at home (BYU by 8, Gonzaga by 4). They will ready to keep it going tonight against a smoking hot ST Mary's team. This is SMC's second toughest road test of the year (they lost early in the year at Denver) and giving away 7 points is just too much in my mind. Viney is getting it going and Ireland has been great all year for LMU. This SMC team is a well oil machine right now but last week had to be a major confidence boost for this LMU team and the HCA will allow them to stay in the game tonight.
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