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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Thursday Hoops
nropp11
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#1
Posted: 1/19/2012 2:09:15 PM
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 32-24, +23.20
January Leans: 30-29


There are a few things that I really dislike about this play. First, I am not a fan of laying the double digit chalk on the road, let alone laying chalk at all, let alone laying chalk on the road in conference, let alone with that conference being the Pac 12. I am also not a fan of making a play based solely on an injury, as anytime someone is injured, more than likely the team has someone that can fit that role to a “T”. Now that that part is out of the way, tonight I will be playing a Pac-12 team, on the road, laying double digit chalk, against a team with a key injury. It’s been announced that Josh Watkins has been kicked off of the Utah basketball team. How important is he to this team?  He is on the only senior on the roster. He is second in minutes played. The only reason he isn’t first is b/c he missed 1 game. Speaking of the one game he did miss, Utah was beaten on their home court by Cal State Fullerton by 31. To put this into perspective, Fullerton’s best win on the season is against Eastern Washington. However, Fullerton and Zona are pretty similar with what they want to do from an offensive standpoint (shoot a ton of three’s). He is currently the top player in the country in terms of how many possessions he is used. What’s this mean? On almost 40% of Utah’s possessions, he is either making a shot, missing a shot, assisting on a shot, or turning the ball over. The top player = #1 out of 3,850. He is currently ranked 11th in the country in shot attempt % (220 shots in 16 games!). He takes just over 36% of Utah’s shots.  He is the best combo defender Utah has at the guard position when you combine rebounding/block/steal percentages. He assists on 47% of Utah’s baskets. That’s good for 2nd in the Nation. If you’ve ever seen the kid play, he does just about everything for this team. He’s more of a slashing guard, and not that great of a shooter. He looks to penetrate often, which leads me to probably the most important stat: He draws almost 7 fouls a game. He likes getting to the basket. He likes getting to the foul line (97 times to be exact). There isn’t a player on their team that’s even close at the guard position. So, that sums up Utah. They’re missing a leader, their only offensive weapon, their only offensive weapon that leads to others offense, and their missing all that slashing ability which is going to make it harder for everyone to score. This offense is absolutely horrific with him, and there is no reason it gets better without him. And, they’re going to have to totally switch up everything they’ve done. Krystkowiak tookover an extremely fast team for the past few years and turned them into a snail this year. Run a play here or there, then when it got down to the shot clock, find Watkins and let him go to work. They can’t do that anymore. If they do stay with it, they don’t have the right players to fit that system. So, I think they will speed things up. I’m not sure if it happens tonight and wouldn’t bet on that happening b/c Zona doesn’t look to run to terribly often, but it’s going to happen eventually, and there will be an insane amount of value when it does. Take a horrible offense and get them more possessions, especially in transition, and they’re going to score more. From a defensive standpoint, Utah has shown the zone defense as of late. He will mix in some man-to-man, but without Watkins, I think they’ll go to a zone. The guards can’t defend, and if you’ve watched Arizona, that’s the focus for them going zone here. The problem is, that Arizona can sort of shoot the three-ball pretty well and teams are shooting 42% from out there on Utah. I can go on and on about this and that, but I think it really just comes down to one thing: Utah is not good. Sure, they might get some confidence by throwing a few new players in there, or heck, maybe Watkins was the reason that this team was doing so bad? Who knows. All I know is that if Arizona can knock down some outside shots, then this one comes in pretty easy. And if they don’t hit shots (sort of like Murray State didn’t do last night against Morehead’s zone), then I feel it was a risk worth taking.

If my gut’s right with Utah running, then you also have some value in the over, although I’m not sure the results will be there in game #1 of a new system. Krystkowiak was a running and gunning machine while he was at Montana, so it’s not like going to it would be that out of the ordinary for him. If they don’t run and gun or pick up the pace a bit or change anything, then they just aren’t going to score without having a go-to guy at the end of possessions.

1* Arizona -14

Lean: Arizona/Utah Over 117

More.

GL

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#2
Posted: 1/19/2012 2:12:43 PM
As I read elsewhere on the net:

Just when things were starting looking slightly better that catastrophic, Utah decided to part ways with do-everything guard Jiggy Watkins for violating team rules. If you never watched the Utes play, we'll walk you through a typical possession: (Insert player name) inbounds to Watkins who strolls up the court at a leisurely pace. Passes to (insert player name) who passes it right back to Watkins. Watkins dribbles left, now right. 15 on the shot clock. Watkins barks out "22" and the other four players clear out. 10 on the clock. Watkins at the top of the key. 6, 5, 4...Watkins drives, pulls up, and misses a 15-footer at the elbow.

That is seriously how nearly every possession goes down. According to Ken Pom, Watkins ranks No. 1 in the country in percent of possessions used (38.4%). Meaning the ball is in his hands constantly. He wasn't necessarily a great player, but he was Utah's best option and one of the few on the roster who had PAC-12 talent.

Good luck with your play.
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#3
Posted: 1/19/2012 2:22:12 PM
I like it, Utah was terrible without Jiggy earlier this season against weak comp. Now they face a Pac 12 team without him, will be interesting game to say the least. 

GL and thanks again for taking the time to post your picks/writeups 

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#4
Posted: 1/19/2012 2:22:44 PM
Too bad u are done with Pac 12 Neil.  Some good games tonight worth watching and observing on with small point spreads.   I like Stanford at Wash State but their ft problems are the red flag so no go there.

And  Cal vs Wash is going to be a barnburner.

I am planning on taking Colorado  -1 on a teaser though along with Butler +1 and North Carolina +1.     U think any of those 3 teams will be upset tonight?  Thanks and GL as always
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#5
Posted: 1/19/2012 2:22:47 PM
Wow I hadn't heard that Watkins left the team

I wouldn't expect much of a home court advantage for the Utes
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#6
Posted: 1/19/2012 2:25:17 PM

Like the play Nropp. I see what you are saying about Utah speeding the game up to give them more possessions but I also can see Utah slowing the game down to limit both teams possessions to try to keep it close. The only way they cover tonight is if they go into Washburn and use his size advantage to score and try to win on the glass. Arizona has had trouble with bigger players all year but without Watkins this offense should be at a stand still. Also I think I heard a stat watching the UA game about a week agao that every game they have lost they have been outrebounded, just a random fact I heard since this is my favorite team.

GL as always

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#7
Posted: 1/19/2012 2:29:34 PM
Funny account of Watkins. 

If I'm not mistaken, he has a family (multiple kids) so the premise of his dismissal makes me sad; but I'm sure its justified...

Physical guard, body-type to take it to the rim. Not a whole lot of thought that goes into it.
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#8
Posted: 1/19/2012 2:29:43 PM

Any thoughts on Tenn St @ E Illinois.

Lean Tenn St hear as I think they slow McKinnie down pts wise and on the glass. We saw last time out if you can slow him down this team will struggle. Granger dropped 31 pts and still got a L

Thanks in advance

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#9
Posted: 1/19/2012 2:32:13 PM
Nropp, I'd love to get your thoughts on Pepperdine/St. Mary's.  That seems like a boatload of points.  Plus the over looks good if Pepperdine can just get to 50.  While we are talking WCC, Loyola Marymount seems like too good a team to get 17.5, even at BYU.
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Posted: 1/19/2012 2:33:53 PM
Thanks for the write up, added Arizona to my card.
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nropp11
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#11
Posted: 1/19/2012 2:36:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sportsanalyst:

Too bad u are done with Pac 12 Neil.  Some good games tonight worth watching and observing on with small point spreads.   I like Stanford at Wash State but their ft problems are the red flag so no go there.

And  Cal vs Wash is going to be a barnburner.

I am planning on taking Colorado  -1 on a teaser though along with Butler +1 and North Carolina +1.     U think any of those 3 teams will be upset tonight?  Thanks and GL as always

Definitely some good match-ups tonight in the P-12. If I had more time to look into it, I'd probably take a shot at UCLA. A team that does exactly what their opponent doesn't want them to do, which is slow the game down. Oregon State is going to have to score in the paint to win this game b/c Howland's guard defense has been amazing as of late, and the size that UCLA brings to the table in the paint sort of prevents Oregon State from scoring. 

As far as your teaser, I hate teasers. But, I think Colorado is safe. I wouldn't trust UNC on the road at all, and probably the same can be said for Butler.

GL
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#12
Posted: 1/19/2012 2:36:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nropp11:

November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 32-24, +23.20
January Leans: 30-29


There are a few things that I really dislike about this play. First, I am not a fan of laying the double digit chalk on the road, let alone laying chalk at all, let alone laying chalk on the road in conference, let alone with that conference being the Pac 12. I am also not a fan of making a play based solely on an injury, as anytime someone is injured, more than likely the team has someone that can fit that role to a “T”. Now that that part is out of the way, tonight I will be playing a Pac-12 team, on the road, laying double digit chalk, against a team with a key injury. It’s been announced that Josh Watkins has been kicked off of the Utah basketball team. How important is he to this team?  He is on the only senior on the roster. He is second in minutes played. The only reason he isn’t first is b/c he missed 1 game. Speaking of the one game he did miss, Utah was beaten on their home court by Cal State Fullerton by 31. To put this into perspective, Fullerton’s best win on the season is against Eastern Washington. However, Fullerton and Zona are pretty similar with what they want to do from an offensive standpoint (shoot a ton of three’s). He is currently the top player in the country in terms of how many possessions he is used. What’s this mean? On almost 40% of Utah’s possessions, he is either making a shot, missing a shot, assisting on a shot, or turning the ball over. The top player = #1 out of 3,850. He is currently ranked 11th in the country in shot attempt % (220 shots in 16 games!). He takes just over 36% of Utah’s shots.  He is the best combo defender Utah has at the guard position when you combine rebounding/block/steal percentages. He assists on 47% of Utah’s baskets. That’s good for 2nd in the Nation. If you’ve ever seen the kid play, he does just about everything for this team. He’s more of a slashing guard, and not that great of a shooter. He looks to penetrate often, which leads me to probably the most important stat: He draws almost 7 fouls a game. He likes getting to the basket. He likes getting to the foul line (97 times to be exact). There isn’t a player on their team that’s even close at the guard position. So, that sums up Utah. They’re missing a leader, their only offensive weapon, their only offensive weapon that leads to others offense, and their missing all that slashing ability which is going to make it harder for everyone to score. This offense is absolutely horrific with him, and there is no reason it gets better without him. And, they’re going to have to totally switch up everything they’ve done. Krystkowiak tookover an extremely fast team for the past few years and turned them into a snail this year. Run a play here or there, then when it got down to the shot clock, find Watkins and let him go to work. They can’t do that anymore. If they do stay with it, they don’t have the right players to fit that system. So, I think they will speed things up. I’m not sure if it happens tonight and wouldn’t bet on that happening b/c Zona doesn’t look to run to terribly often, but it’s going to happen eventually, and there will be an insane amount of value when it does. Take a horrible offense and get them more possessions, especially in transition, and they’re going to score more. From a defensive standpoint, Utah has shown the zone defense as of late. He will mix in some man-to-man, but without Watkins, I think they’ll go to a zone. The guards can’t defend, and if you’ve watched Arizona, that’s the focus for them going zone here. The problem is, that Arizona can sort of shoot the three-ball pretty well and teams are shooting 42% from out there on Utah. I can go on and on about this and that, but I think it really just comes down to one thing: Utah is not good. Sure, they might get some confidence by throwing a few new players in there, or heck, maybe Watkins was the reason that this team was doing so bad? Who knows. All I know is that if Arizona can knock down some outside shots, then this one comes in pretty easy. And if they don’t hit shots (sort of like Murray State didn’t do last night against Morehead’s zone), then I feel it was a risk worth taking.

If my gut’s right with Utah running, then you also have some value in the over, although I’m not sure the results will be there in game #1 of a new system. Krystkowiak was a running and gunning machine while he was at Montana, so it’s not like going to it would be that out of the ordinary for him. If they don’t run and gun or pick up the pace a bit or change anything, then they just aren’t going to score without having a go-to guy at the end of possessions.

1* Arizona -14

Lean: Arizona/Utah Over 117

More.

GL




Love your write ups... Being a pac12 follower my one issue with AZ is they just do not take care of the basketball... AZ probably turns the ball over more than any of the pac12 teams to date by a wide margin... on paper the talent calls for the blowout on the road and combine that with Utah losing a key player... I just think laying that much chalk on the road especially by a team that turns it over and doesn't shoot FTs all that well may get a bit dicey...
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#13
Posted: 1/19/2012 2:40:43 PM
Offense seems to be back with 2 90+ pt outputs, seems to me it's about time Oakland puts together a solid conference run after pretty tough non-con schedule similar to the last 3 seasons... Plenty on the roster still. Thoughts on matchup with Southern Utah and their inflated #s??   
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#14
Posted: 1/19/2012 2:44:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dmoore916:

Any thoughts on Tenn St @ E Illinois.

Lean Tenn St hear as I think they slow McKinnie down pts wise and on the glass. We saw last time out if you can slow him down this team will struggle. Granger dropped 31 pts and still got a L

Thanks in advance


Yah, tough call. Don't really see much value. Should slow McKinnie down but at the same time, McKinnie's just as good of a defender on Covington, so sort of becomes a wash. Granger's been a freak this year. Probably going to continue, b/c Tenny State doesn't have anyone to contain him.

GL
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#15
Posted: 1/19/2012 2:45:32 PM
Most of the size UCLA brings to the game is soft.
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#16
Posted: 1/19/2012 2:46:33 PM

nropp i demand u start capping pac12 again immediatly

and then please tell me how oregon doesnt win by 25+ tonight

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#17
Posted: 1/19/2012 2:46:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nropp11:


Definitely some good match-ups tonight in the P-12. If I had more time to look into it, I'd probably take a shot at UCLA. A team that does exactly what their opponent doesn't want them to do, which is slow the game down. Oregon State is going to have to score in the paint to win this game b/c Howland's guard defense has been amazing as of late, and the size that UCLA brings to the table in the paint sort of prevents Oregon State from scoring. 

As far as your teaser, I hate teasers. But, I think Colorado is safe. I wouldn't trust UNC on the road at all, and probably the same can be said for Butler.

GL


i love colorado here, ASU is just bad and they will not be playing with 2 of their best players in King and Lockett tonight... Colorado is going to be a player in pac12 hoops real soon... They gave Cal all they could handle on the road despite losing, were up 7 at halftime...

As for UCLA, this is my team and when looking at this game it's a game that they can win... UCLA has been playing much better as a TEAM lately... this is a thursday game where UCLA has proven to play much better in... I just think this is a sucker line and OSU covers as they will be VERY pumped up after losing 3 in a row and at home... I'm not touching it...
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Posted: 1/19/2012 2:49:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mariner24:

nropp i demand u start capping pac12 again immediatly

and then please tell me how oregon doesnt win by 25+ tonight



Oregon and Colorado are the 2 best plays in the pac12 tonight w/o a doubt... USC is the worst team in the pac12 with ASU right on their heels... But that's like saying they're the ugliest pig in a pig beauty contest... Oregon should smash Sc at home and Colorado should handle ASU pretty easily..
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#19
Posted: 1/19/2012 2:52:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dangor2:

Nropp, I'd love to get your thoughts on Pepperdine/St. Mary's.  That seems like a boatload of points.  Plus the over looks good if Pepperdine can just get to 50.  While we are talking WCC, Loyola Marymount seems like too good a team to get 17.5, even at BYU.

Pepperdine was able to score on St. Mary's in last year's meetings, but they were a much faster paced team than what they bring in here tonight. They utilize a bunch of guards and try to get into the paint and make something happen and it's just a bad matchup. One, St. Mary's guards rarely allow penetration, and Two, if they do, then Pepperdine's going into a forest of Tree's in there. They only scored 45 in the first meeting this year, and that was a home game.

No interest in BYU. This group of Marymounters has never made the trip to BYU, and BYU generally waxes people at home.

GL
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#20
Posted: 1/19/2012 2:55:59 PM
Thnx for the writeup Nropp 


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#21
Posted: 1/19/2012 3:01:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lmontalv:



Oregon and Colorado are the 2 best plays in the pac12 tonight w/o a doubt... USC is the worst team in the pac12 with ASU right on their heels... But that's like saying they're the ugliest pig in a pig beauty contest... Oregon should smash Sc at home and Colorado should handle ASU pretty easily..
With that said why did Oregon's line drop from -8 to -6.5, same for Colorado -11 to -9 even though ASU's best player(Lockett) is out. There is a dead cat hanging on a line somewhere!
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#22
Posted: 1/19/2012 3:06:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jayhawk05:

Offense seems to be back with 2 90+ pt outputs, seems to me it's about time Oakland puts together a solid conference run after pretty tough non-con schedule similar to the last 3 seasons... Plenty on the roster still. Thoughts on matchup with Southern Utah and their inflated #s??   



Those two Oakland 90+ outputs came against the worst two defenses in the conference outside of Oakland (OAK actually has the worst), and some high-tempo teams. Oakland can't defend (teams in the conference are scoring 82+ per), and this is a SUU offense that they should look even worse as SUU can score from just about any position. SUU held them below 82 in all three meetings last year while playing a much faster pace. This isn't just triple revenge, it's revenge from being knocked out of the tourney, and revenge on a team that hasn't held back in previous years. 

I will be on Southern Utah.
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#23
Posted: 1/19/2012 3:12:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mariner24:

nropp i demand u start capping pac12 again immediatly

and then please tell me how oregon doesnt win by 25+ tonight


Letdown after winning roady? Not sure. Oregon's offense hasn't quite looked all that impressive, and probably takes a step back against USC's defense tonight in a slow setting. In a total lined as low as that game is, I'd want the better defense, and it's not Oregon.
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#24
Posted: 1/19/2012 3:14:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bobcat36:

Most of the size UCLA brings to the game is soft.

Soft, but two players in the top 200 in block %'s.
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Posted: 1/19/2012 3:16:36 PM
Neil, yea I am not going to play Butler on the teaser since they can't shoot well and that is not good on the road. 

As for UT Chat vs UNCG, what are your thoughts?  I like the road team here but Wes Miller doing a good job lately by beating CofC last week.

thanks
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