Sunday 1/8 CBB Plays

2010-2011: 164-127
2011-2012: 156-109 (+41.9 units)
Saturday: 6-6 (+1.1 units)

Posting from 37,000 feet en route to Florida.

Great start yesterday only to have the second half of the card fall apart (Santa Clara - I'm looking at you). Turned a small profit but nothing worth writing home about.

Light day today. One so far:

Wisconsin -1 (-120) @ Michigan (1 unit)
Suspect line to say the least with the Wolverines playing at Crisler, where they rarely lose. I like Wisconsin for several reasons, though. Maybe it's my blind faith in Bo Ryan, but I would be utterly shocked if the Badgers don't come out guns blazing today after doing the unthinkable and dropping consecutive games at the Kohl Center. From a matchup perspective, the Badgers have a couple of advantages. Defensively, Wisconsin's whole defensive philosophy is predicated on completely taking away the 3-point line. Bo's team ranks 2nd in the country in points allowed via the trey and 2nd in opponents' 3 pt. %. Michigan, of course, relies heavily on the perimeter shot to score points (#24 in the nation). It's a clear case of one team being able to completely shut down the other's strength, and unless Trey Burke takes it Jordan Taylor (unlikely), Michigan is going to have a hard time getting decent looks on offense. Burke is the only UM player who can consistently get his own shot. Wisconsin also leads the nation in fewest turnovers, coughing it up on an astoundingly low 14.0% of its possessions. This is a major key to winning on the road. The Badgers also don't allow second chances and get a favorable matchup on the offensive end against a Michigan defense that applies very little pressure to outside shooters. This was a major issue in the losses to Iowa and Michigan State as the Badgers' shooters were unable to get clean looks. Shouldn't be the case today. I expect a low-scoring, tightly-contested game with Wisconsin eventually emerging with a much-needed win. This is a desperate Wisky team and a win today would go a long way towards righting the ship. One issue is the possible revenge angle for the Wolverines after Josh Gasser banked in a 3 at the buzzer last year to give Wisconsin a win in Ann Arbor.

Current Leans:
UMASS/LaSalle Over 146.5, Maryland/NC State Under 148.5, Drexel +1, Villanova -7.5

No play for me here but BOL J-Fen 

VCU @ Drexel PK (1.5 units)
Don't like the matchup at all for VCU...Georgia State exposed some issues with the offense and showed how slowing the game to a halt is going to be problematic for the Rams this season. Shaka Smart remarked that his young team (excluding Bradford Burgess) were caught off guard by the physicality of Georgia State and it's only going to increase tonight traveling to the DAC to face one of the most physical teams in the entire country. I love Drexel's defense and its focus on completely eliminating the 3-point shot. Dragons have an advantage on the glass as well (#2 in the country def. reb %), which mitigates VCU's offensive rebounding prowess. If Drexel doesn't turn the ball over 20+ times, they'll be in good position to get the win.

My day was the reverse, started out in the whole and had a strong second half.  Decent profit but should have been much better.  A&M pissed me off, but threw in some late action on UC Irvine and Northern Iowa that cashed nicely.  Northern Iowa is a decent little team.  My favorite team under the radar this year has been new mexico.  They've earned me multiple units on several occasions.

Anyway I agree on the Wisconsin play, I have them on my card.  I also feel Burke is the only guy on UM who can create anything.  Hardaway jr. has been a bit up and down in my view, he can be talen otu of a game or he can get 25.  I am a Bo Ryan fan and that aside I think they;ll do fairly well on Hardaway today.  I was alo gioving a hard look to the over in that game but I try to pick my spost with totals plays and not sure this is a good enough one although i do think it will be more offensive than many might think..  I may do something on LaSalle although I expect a fair amount of action their way it is hard to pass up as UMass is truly a horrid bunch.  Its hard to believe 20 years ago they were a national power under Calipari.  Well sort of, i think they made the final 4 or great 8 once with Camby maybe.  And yes I still call it the great 8, not the elite eight like the clowns on ESPN started calling it in the mid-'90's.

GL today

I've also been cursing out Santa Clara the past 12 hours. What a choke-job.

Love Drexel as well and might add it later. Tough to beat them at home. 12-2 last year and 5-0 already this year...

Thanks guys.

Landing now. This is probably it barring a possible second half play on UMASS-LaSalle, perhaps. I know the pace will be there but need to see how the first half goes.

1/8 Final Card
VCU @ Drexel PK (1.5 units)
Wisconsin -1 @ Michigan (1 unit)
DePaul @ Villanova -8 (1 unit)

like all 3

nova!

loved the 54 points allowed in the 2nd half

Very good to see you on Wisky and Nova... let's cash em.

I really appreciate your writeups. I agree with Wisc & Drexel. I know the situation favors Nova, but i cannot bring myself to bet on Jay Wright, almost ever! Great recruiter/ terrible coach. Wondering your thoughts since you're a St Joe's follower. Temple grad here. Love the Big Five.

i have a hard time laying 8 on nova...young team...gl though.

Nice to see some more Big Five guys here. I hate nOVA with a deep, burning passion and am reveling in their demise this season. Other than killing SJU and Temple's RPI by playing so poorly, there's nothing not to like about seeing the Vilecats fail.

With that said, there might not be a better spot to back them than today. Add in DePaul's helter-skelter playing style and lack of defense, and this is Nova's most favorable matchup since the Boston U game.

I agree 100 percent on your write up of Wisc. Mich. Interesting line and now is at -2. Watching the Ind. Penn St. game and realize that Penn St. is at home but they are plaing extremely hard and could have been blown out a few times already but are managing to stay in the game.

Where in Fl. are you? QAlso any thoughts on Purdue - Minny? I think both teams have been overrated and will probably play a O/U and looking to play over. Enjoy the beautiful weather its perfect today.

 

Drexal now at +2 went to play it at +1 and it spiked up to +2 while I was playing it. What's the reason for the uptick? 

 other way here 

Jen my man where you find the 2nd in defensive reb % in the country and such stats you throw out often? I diesect games like a frog in science class an would enjoy adding these tidbits to my studies.any insight would be greatful thanks Holmes.

I bagged wisky and played the over, that was a mistake.  Wisconsin is really bad offensively, note for future.

Somebody enlighten me...why is USC a 1 1/2 point favorite over Arizona?

is usc -1 vs arizona a trap line?