In a rush so dont have time to type much but ill be back tomorrow
6-5-1 wednesday. was only avoid having a losing day because I got a nice line on the tulsa game and pushed thanks to a missed free throw, and because I had two nice 2h adds on X and W&M.
nailed the drexel under. it won by 30 points.totals dont get much easier than than, especially with a line as low as 117. but aside from that, everything else was pretty trash. looking back, it was foolish to think towson could cover a spread; even though a lot of information pointed to the possibility of them covering.....i was still relying on towson at the end of the day, one of the worst schools in the country. it's easier to bet on good teams than bad teams. And it was dumb to take Xavier while they're in a slide. i even said it myself.
that behind said, let me just reiterate that my write-ups are just to offer some more information for the choices that i select, and it's up to you to decide whether you want to follow me or not. so don't bitch at me if you follow and lose; tough luck. fade me if you want, i dont care. im just over 56% for the year. (math enthusiasts...that's still barely over half.)
In a rush so dont have time to type much but ill be back tomorrow
6-5-1 wednesday. was only avoid having a losing day because I got a nice line on the tulsa game and pushed thanks to a missed free throw, and because I had two nice 2h adds on X and W&M.
nailed the drexel under. it won by 30 points.totals dont get much easier than than, especially with a line as low as 117. but aside from that, everything else was pretty trash. looking back, it was foolish to think towson could cover a spread; even though a lot of information pointed to the possibility of them covering.....i was still relying on towson at the end of the day, one of the worst schools in the country. it's easier to bet on good teams than bad teams. And it was dumb to take Xavier while they're in a slide. i even said it myself.
that behind said, let me just reiterate that my write-ups are just to offer some more information for the choices that i select, and it's up to you to decide whether you want to follow me or not. so don't bitch at me if you follow and lose; tough luck. fade me if you want, i dont care. im just over 56% for the year. (math enthusiasts...that's still barely over half.)
I was on that U also, I had a sh*t night but couldve been much worse..need to get back in black thurs..I also have Cal as a lean..looked a little but at Fiodham and Mason not sure on those yet. GL Thurs Sloop.
I was on that U also, I had a sh*t night but couldve been much worse..need to get back in black thurs..I also have Cal as a lean..looked a little but at Fiodham and Mason not sure on those yet. GL Thurs Sloop.
I was on that U also, I had a sh*t night but couldve been much worse..need to get back in black thurs..I also have Cal as a lean..looked a little but at Fiodham and Mason not sure on those yet. GL Thurs Sloop.
yessir it doesnt get any easier than that haha. i saw you posted in another thread that you were looking to fade WVU on the road today...ill admit i dont like the idea of road chalk but still i didnt see any way of rutgers beating WVU...hope you didnt play that one
nice card for thursday you'll bounce back bud don't sweat it
I was on that U also, I had a sh*t night but couldve been much worse..need to get back in black thurs..I also have Cal as a lean..looked a little but at Fiodham and Mason not sure on those yet. GL Thurs Sloop.
yessir it doesnt get any easier than that haha. i saw you posted in another thread that you were looking to fade WVU on the road today...ill admit i dont like the idea of road chalk but still i didnt see any way of rutgers beating WVU...hope you didnt play that one
nice card for thursday you'll bounce back bud don't sweat it
I like Michigan, Oregon, Arkansas state and loyola marymount
same, not even kidding i was just looking at all three of those
I'm annoyed because i think this Michigan line is only going to get worse if i sleep on it. but i dont want to rush into it....it's literally the only thing keeping me from passing out right now
I like Michigan, Oregon, Arkansas state and loyola marymount
same, not even kidding i was just looking at all three of those
I'm annoyed because i think this Michigan line is only going to get worse if i sleep on it. but i dont want to rush into it....it's literally the only thing keeping me from passing out right now
(sorry, that didn't paste as well as I'd hoped. but the sentence below is the one i found interesting)
The Pac-12 as a whole tends not to show as much difference
between the home and the road as the rest of the nation. The national average home-court advantage
over the last five years has been 7.1 points. Within the
major conferences, where attendances are larger, that
rises to 8.3 points. The Pac-10’s average of 6.9 points
is lowest among the majors. So it is that Washington’s
league-best home-court advantage is actually below
the typical home-court advantage in the Big 12 (10.3
points per game).
Apparently, Boulder sucks because there's an "adjustment to the mile-high altitudes." or whatever. but i watched the entire wyoming @ colorado game and that just seems like a bunch of BS to me. wyoming had no adjustment to kicking that team's ass, and they played like garbage. that stadium was quiet and the team itself was so....not pumped. maybe because they were losing. but still I'm not intimidated by washington having to play @ Boulder, even tho Colorado had a legit home record last year....Colorado was so much more talented last year
definitely agree w/ you as they havent won a road game yet, but still love the chances here. WU's road losses are so respectable....duke by 6....@ nevada by 3...marquette by 2...@ st louis 13.....all those teams are dirty. i'll take the talented team
(sorry, that didn't paste as well as I'd hoped. but the sentence below is the one i found interesting)
The Pac-12 as a whole tends not to show as much difference
between the home and the road as the rest of the nation. The national average home-court advantage
over the last five years has been 7.1 points. Within the
major conferences, where attendances are larger, that
rises to 8.3 points. The Pac-10’s average of 6.9 points
is lowest among the majors. So it is that Washington’s
league-best home-court advantage is actually below
the typical home-court advantage in the Big 12 (10.3
points per game).
Apparently, Boulder sucks because there's an "adjustment to the mile-high altitudes." or whatever. but i watched the entire wyoming @ colorado game and that just seems like a bunch of BS to me. wyoming had no adjustment to kicking that team's ass, and they played like garbage. that stadium was quiet and the team itself was so....not pumped. maybe because they were losing. but still I'm not intimidated by washington having to play @ Boulder, even tho Colorado had a legit home record last year....Colorado was so much more talented last year
definitely agree w/ you as they havent won a road game yet, but still love the chances here. WU's road losses are so respectable....duke by 6....@ nevada by 3...marquette by 2...@ st louis 13.....all those teams are dirty. i'll take the talented team
These are the total amount of points Loyola-CH has scored in the first half each D1 game so far this season:
@ illinois: 18 points
@ KSU: 23 points
@ EIU: 32 points
@ Furman: 23 points
vs Fordham: 34 points
@ Milwalkee: 18 points
@ Green Bay: 12 points
vs DePaul: 17 points
@ Toledo: 25 points
vs Chicago St.: 31 points @ Canisius: 20 points
vs Wright St: 18 points vs Detroit: 24 points
So out of a possible 13 games, they've only been able to score over 25 points in the first half three times. These were the games:
1) Chicago State: the 9th fastest team in the country, the #344 overall team, and the #334 defense.
2) Fordham: the 62nd fastest team in the country, #122 defense, #248 overall
3) EIU: #267 overall, #291 defense, #227 pace
So in the Chicago State and Fordham games, it was likely that those teams were really pushing the tempo and that's what allowed Loyola's offense to put up so many points. EIU just sucks. Fordham's defense is pretty good...but that was also the first home game of the season for Loyola, so it's likely they were really pumped to have a strong first half.
Loyola-CH is the 10th slowest team in the country, has the #295 offense, and #196 defense on the #251 overall schedule. Tonight they play Youngstown State- the 55th best shooting 3 point team in the country.
But despite Loyola's poor defensive efficiency stats, they are good at one thing: defending the 3 pointer. In fact, they're #25 in the nation at defending the long ball. Youngstown state is the #3 team in the country at relying on the 3 pointer, and they rely on it for 42.1% of their point distribution.
Youngstown State is #150 in pace, #133 in offense, and #254 in defense. So I'm not crazy about them having a "moderately fast" pace or a weak defense, but still, they're not committed to pushing the pace, and I still don't think Loyola will be able to score.
So here's a recap: Loyola is a perennial slow-starter, scoring over 25 points in the 1st half just 3 times this season out of 13 games, and 6 times scored 20 or less points. These numbers are even worse in the road. They are the 10th slowest team in the country, and are going up against a Youngstown State team that is faster, but still not committed to pushing the pace. Youngstown State relies heavily on the 3 pointer, but Loyola is the #25 team in the country at defending it.
There's absolutely a chance of Youngstown State catching fire and blowing away Loyola's 3-point defensive numbers. And there's also a possibility of a bunch of fouling taking this over the 55.5 1h number. Halves are difficult to play. But I'm pretty confident that Loyola will struggle offensively, and the numbers point in the direction that Youngstown won't get off those 3 pointers as easily. Youngstown has played two teams (Akron and Cleveland State) already that are similar to Loyola at defending the 3. One was more successful than the other. But in the first halves Youngstown still failed to score over 30 points (ok, they scored 29 and 30), and both of those teams are much faster in pace than Loyola is.
These are the total amount of points Loyola-CH has scored in the first half each D1 game so far this season:
@ illinois: 18 points
@ KSU: 23 points
@ EIU: 32 points
@ Furman: 23 points
vs Fordham: 34 points
@ Milwalkee: 18 points
@ Green Bay: 12 points
vs DePaul: 17 points
@ Toledo: 25 points
vs Chicago St.: 31 points @ Canisius: 20 points
vs Wright St: 18 points vs Detroit: 24 points
So out of a possible 13 games, they've only been able to score over 25 points in the first half three times. These were the games:
1) Chicago State: the 9th fastest team in the country, the #344 overall team, and the #334 defense.
2) Fordham: the 62nd fastest team in the country, #122 defense, #248 overall
3) EIU: #267 overall, #291 defense, #227 pace
So in the Chicago State and Fordham games, it was likely that those teams were really pushing the tempo and that's what allowed Loyola's offense to put up so many points. EIU just sucks. Fordham's defense is pretty good...but that was also the first home game of the season for Loyola, so it's likely they were really pumped to have a strong first half.
Loyola-CH is the 10th slowest team in the country, has the #295 offense, and #196 defense on the #251 overall schedule. Tonight they play Youngstown State- the 55th best shooting 3 point team in the country.
But despite Loyola's poor defensive efficiency stats, they are good at one thing: defending the 3 pointer. In fact, they're #25 in the nation at defending the long ball. Youngstown state is the #3 team in the country at relying on the 3 pointer, and they rely on it for 42.1% of their point distribution.
Youngstown State is #150 in pace, #133 in offense, and #254 in defense. So I'm not crazy about them having a "moderately fast" pace or a weak defense, but still, they're not committed to pushing the pace, and I still don't think Loyola will be able to score.
So here's a recap: Loyola is a perennial slow-starter, scoring over 25 points in the 1st half just 3 times this season out of 13 games, and 6 times scored 20 or less points. These numbers are even worse in the road. They are the 10th slowest team in the country, and are going up against a Youngstown State team that is faster, but still not committed to pushing the pace. Youngstown State relies heavily on the 3 pointer, but Loyola is the #25 team in the country at defending it.
There's absolutely a chance of Youngstown State catching fire and blowing away Loyola's 3-point defensive numbers. And there's also a possibility of a bunch of fouling taking this over the 55.5 1h number. Halves are difficult to play. But I'm pretty confident that Loyola will struggle offensively, and the numbers point in the direction that Youngstown won't get off those 3 pointers as easily. Youngstown has played two teams (Akron and Cleveland State) already that are similar to Loyola at defending the 3. One was more successful than the other. But in the first halves Youngstown still failed to score over 30 points (ok, they scored 29 and 30), and both of those teams are much faster in pace than Loyola is.
I don't see how UCLA is going to keep up with Arizona's scoring. They played horrible defense @ Cal the other night, allowing them to shoot >65% from the floor, and now they have to face one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the country that gets 33.3% of points from 3s, in what will essentially be a neutral court, while UCLA is the #335 team in the country at defending the 3...I don't believe this team is better off without Reeves Nelson, and I think it will start to show soon
I don't see how UCLA is going to keep up with Arizona's scoring. They played horrible defense @ Cal the other night, allowing them to shoot >65% from the floor, and now they have to face one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the country that gets 33.3% of points from 3s, in what will essentially be a neutral court, while UCLA is the #335 team in the country at defending the 3...I don't believe this team is better off without Reeves Nelson, and I think it will start to show soon
South Florida was lost 12 of its 13 games on the road last season, and have lost all 4 this season, and basically has the same squad as last year. Why should anyone believe this trend is going to stop? Villanova is young, but still likely underachieving this year, and in the conference home-opener i think they have a pretty good opportunity to get a double digit win.
South Florida was lost 12 of its 13 games on the road last season, and have lost all 4 this season, and basically has the same squad as last year. Why should anyone believe this trend is going to stop? Villanova is young, but still likely underachieving this year, and in the conference home-opener i think they have a pretty good opportunity to get a double digit win.
Denver and Arkansas State are both good at 3s. Denver is the 21st best 3 point shooting team in the country, and gets 37.8% of their points from 3 pointers (that's 17th most in the country). Even though Denver is bad on the road, this stat fits nicely for them against Arkansas State, who is one of the worst 3 point defending teams in the nation (#308). Combine that with the fact that Arkansas State is the 61st best 3 point shooting team while Denver is also horrible at defending it (#218 in the country), and it's a pretty nice shot at the over.
Overs are typically better with short lines, because there's a wonderful chance of fouling at the end of the game to soar it pretty high. And there's a good chance of that happening here.
These two teams are painfully slow in pace. But as long as they foul and shoot reasonably well, I think this can get to 120. Hopefully I'm right. And hopefully Denver gets fouled more, as they are the 2nd best free-throw shooting team in the country.
Denver and Arkansas State are both good at 3s. Denver is the 21st best 3 point shooting team in the country, and gets 37.8% of their points from 3 pointers (that's 17th most in the country). Even though Denver is bad on the road, this stat fits nicely for them against Arkansas State, who is one of the worst 3 point defending teams in the nation (#308). Combine that with the fact that Arkansas State is the 61st best 3 point shooting team while Denver is also horrible at defending it (#218 in the country), and it's a pretty nice shot at the over.
Overs are typically better with short lines, because there's a wonderful chance of fouling at the end of the game to soar it pretty high. And there's a good chance of that happening here.
These two teams are painfully slow in pace. But as long as they foul and shoot reasonably well, I think this can get to 120. Hopefully I'm right. And hopefully Denver gets fouled more, as they are the 2nd best free-throw shooting team in the country.
No doubt Wash is the more talented and overall better team (than Col) but historically, Lorenzo Romars' teams have been terrible on the road....
Can't disagree with you at all. Cal is bad on the road too. But I think both of these teams are so much more talented and can overcome that. They could both be wrong, but I still love both.
Are you an Arizona fan? Any feel on the game tonight? I'll be on Arizona myself.
No doubt Wash is the more talented and overall better team (than Col) but historically, Lorenzo Romars' teams have been terrible on the road....
Can't disagree with you at all. Cal is bad on the road too. But I think both of these teams are so much more talented and can overcome that. They could both be wrong, but I still love both.
Are you an Arizona fan? Any feel on the game tonight? I'll be on Arizona myself.
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