Posted:
#1
37-20, +18.75
Leans: (27-25)
2* Tulsa +6.5
1* Tulsa ML +250
1* Tulsa/Missouri State Under 128.5
I’m playing Tulsa to win outright here based on a few things. First, they cause many matchup problems with their size, something Missouri State has yet to go against this year. Second, experience within the defensive philosophy should be a key here. Tulsa rarely allows opponents to take a good shot, and if you look at their losses this year, they were beaten by guards who can create their own shot (outside of Northwestern which runs a totally different offense and doesn’t apply here). Not only does Tulsa defend really, really well with their size, they also control the glass, something that should hold true here as well. Missouri State’s played well thus far this year, with a couple big road wins, and their offense has been excellent. But they have not played this quality of a defense nor have they played a team with the size Tulsa brings to the table at every position on the court. Obviously, the week of preparation for Missouri State here could be the story of the outcome, but it also could be a bad thing for an offense that has thus far played much better than I projected in that category. Weems is big, but I think this one comes down to Tulsa’s guards against Missouri State’s guards, not only offensively, but distributing the ball. The lack of experience from the guard spot for Missouri State, should slow the pace in this one, and Tulsa’s added opportunities to score should prevail.
1* Charlotte +3
Wright State’s lone win comes against one of the worst offenses in the country in Jackson State, and their offense is clearly struggling with the loss of some key parts. Charlotte has been plagued early in the season by turnovers, but Wright State’s defense focuses more on discipline and staying within the structure rather than getting in the lanes and forcing turnovers. Charlotte’s defense has been excellent thus far, where the offense has struggled. I expected the opposite, so some offensive regression should come at some point, and it will help they’re playing an inexperienced team looking for a lineup to stick with, also noting, slight lookahead to opening conference game this week when they welcome Cleveland State. Charlotte won this meeting last year, but lots of roster turnover prevents a revenge angle, and they limited a much better WSU offense to just 53 last year.
1* Austin Peay ML -120
Home opener, revenge, better offense, and desperation. Spoke a lot about this one in the past week. Injury to Fraley a little concerning, but I think it hurts Peay more defensively than offensively, which is why I also lean to the over here.
1* Miami OH ML -145
This should be a really nice spot for Miami OH. SEMO really has yet to face any team that wants to slow the pace and make them defend this year, which should show some weaknesses. First, all the juco talent Dickey Nutt brings in rarely exhibits any desire to defend. They have been at the bottom of the barrel in terms of forcing turnovers for the past few years now, which leads good offensive teams to not only having open looks, but taking advantage of those open looks and getting good shots in an offensive set. Better offense, better defense, better coaching, and a little concern about lookahead to Cincinnati, but at this pace, I’m not concerned that’s too much of a lookahead. The greater story in this one should be SEMO’s inexperience against a good defense in a slow setting.
1* Alaska Anchorage PK
Big difference between playing 3 in a row at home, and playing 3 in a row on the road, also noting UC Irvine’s inability to score and defend a dead mouse.
1* Florida Atlantic/South Florida Under 125.5
Neither team wants to get up and down here. Florida Atlantic traveling on game #2 of 3 game roady, which ends at Kansas this week. South Florida mini-lookahead to NCAA Tourney darling VCU, and Kansas right after that. Last year’s matchup final total came in at 92. Both defenses have gotten better with a year of experience, and the outside situational stuff should lead to poor offensive play yet again.
Lean: Central Florida +3.5
Lean: Tennessee State +1 (in a regular game this is a 3*. Both teams coming off rough games, flip a coin)
Lean: MTST/Austin Peay Over 138.5
Lean: St. Peters/Seton Hall Under 128.5
Lean: Illinois Chicago/Toledo Under 131.5
Will be adding a few more, haven’t gotten all the way through yet.
GL
0
Hot Forum Topics
