POSTED PLAYS: 25-16-2
Still waiting to see if the line will climb in Duke's favor here. I really like the Hawks chances tonight as long as they can keep Duke from draining a bunch of threes. I see an advantages at the point gaurd spot with Tyshawn Taylor and in the post with Withey and T-Rob. I hope the refs let them play and dont have to sit through a constant flop fest where Duke gets every charge call because they got beat on defense. Havent locked it in yet, but will be playing the Hawks tonight. As Bill Self said last night after the UCLA game 'We came here to play Duke'
Locked in plays for today:
Wisconsin-Milwaukee: +13.5 - Michigan State is probably better than a year ago, but no way would I ever lay double digit points with them. Even at home. Not to mention this is a solid UWM squad led by Rob Jeter. I think this will be in the 6-7 range instead of a doule digit blowout.
VCU: -3.5 - I cant see W. Kentucky scoring enough to keep this game close. VCU's length and defense should hold the Hilltoppers terrible offense in the 50's.
Illinois State: +10 - Championship game. In state teams that never play. Major vs. Mid-Major. Jankovich was on Bill Self's staff at Illinois before the Webber camp came in. A lot of bad blood between the staffs from when Webber held a mock funeral for Self when he left. Couple that with Illinois being young and the slow pace that we should see and I cant see them laying double digits here.
Stanford: +2 - The secret is about to be out about the Dawkin's Cardinal. They returned everyone from last year's team except Jeremy Green. I think this is a team that will rise upand surprise some people in the Pac 12 this year. Im not sold on the Cowboys post play or that their half court defense is worth a crap (it hasnt been since Travis Ford got to Stillwater).
St. Joseph's: +10 - Iona plays fast fast fast and just returned from their trip to Puerto Rico, While St. Joes was in Charleston, SC. I think the travel is an issue and I think Iona plays so fast that they lack efficiency. I see St. Joes hanging in and allowing Iona to take a lot of bad shots in this one. 10 points is too good to be true.
W. Michigan: +15.5 - I think this is a classic case of early line movement based on three games in a tourney. W. Michigan will compete for the MAC title this year but had a bad showing in Puerto Rico, while Purdue won a couple of seriously close games and then lost to a great Alabama squad. The underlying stat that sticks out to me is how well Purdue shot from three. I dont think they can keep it up at the pace they are going. Couple that with the fact that both teams saw each other for three days in the tourney and this one seems like it will be closer that 15.5.
Small Leans
Youngstown St +9 - Penn State is a trainwreck offensively. They have a completely new team from last year and I just cant see them laying 9 points to anyone.
Air Force -3: Colorado was in Puerto Rico all week, while Air Force played at home. Interstate game between what would be considered the 'major' program going on the road to a 'mid-major' and I think it all sets up for an Air Force whipping of the Buffaloes.
Hot Forum Topics
