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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Monday 11/21 CBB Plays w/Analysis
JFen31
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JFen31
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#1
Posted: 11/21/2011 10:12:05 AM
2010-2011: 164-127
2011-2012: 28-21-2 (+6.8 units)
Yesterday: 2-1 (+0.3 units)

Winning day yesterday, but the 2-unit play on South Florida hurt the cause. Augustus Gilchrist didn't play in the second half, which ultimately swung the game in PSU's favor.

On to Monday...Locked this in at the open and may add more to it...

UMASS PK @ Boston College (1 unit)
BC has the name value here, but the reality is that Steve Donahue's team might be worse than last year's dreadful Wake Forest squad. They lost approximately 90% of last year's scoring output and are relying heavily on a group of freshmen. Unlike some teams, however, the freshmen on which they will be counting are not immensely talented. Most recruiting services ranked BC's class near the bottom of the ACC, calling it short on impact players. In their last game, a 22-point loss to Patriot league foe Holy Cross, the Eagles started three freshmen, a junior, and a senior. The two upperclassmen, however, have no real experience at the D-1 level, having played a combined 13.0 minutes per game last season. Blue Ribbon states, "It's possible no ACC team has ever started a season with so little experience on hand." The youth has shown thus far in a nailbiting 67-64 home win over a terrible New Hampshire squad followed by the blowout loss at Holy Cross.

It's a different story at UMASS, where Derek Kellogg returns four of five starters and adds Hofstra transfer Chaz Williams at point guard. Williams is lightning-quick with the ball and is the perfect point guard for Kellogg's dribble-drive system. Kellogg says he has not had a competent point guard to run his system during his tenure at UMASS, but Williams is expected to change that in a hurry. The early results are quite promising, with Williams averaging a very impressive 17.7 ppg and 9.0 apg. The Minutemen are off to a 3-0 start, albeit against unimpressive competition. Last season, Kellogg's crew jumped out to a 7-0 start before wilting through the rest of the season en route to a disappointing finish. They lost leading scorer Anthony Gurley to graduation, but Kellogg believes the offense will be much better this year as the team had a tendency become stagnant by merely watching Gurley instead of moving without the ball. Kellogg is emphasizing the importance of winning on the road this season, something that was quite difficult for the 2010-2011Minutemen. There's plenty of talent and experience in the frontcourt, too, with the 6'8 Sampson and Sean Carter. 6'7 junior forward Terrell Vinson is a proven scorer who can play anywhere from shooting guard to power forward.

On paper, this is a mismatch. BC has a terrific basketball reputation while UMASS has grossly underachieved over the past few seasons. Unless UMASS plays a dreadful game, though, this veteran team should have its way with a BC squad that is in way over its head at this point in the season. It is a rivalry game, so there will be plenty of intensity on both sides. BC will probably keep it close for awhile, but UMASS' depth and experience should ultimately prove to be the deciding factor.
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#2
Posted: 11/21/2011 10:17:54 AM
bol today 
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#3
Posted: 11/21/2011 10:26:27 AM
Love it!
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JFen31
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#4
Posted: 11/21/2011 10:42:28 AM
Leans to Michigan, South Dakota State, SMU/Oral Roberts over, and UTSA/Colorado State over.

The last one will depend on the status of Colorado State's glue guy, Pierce Hornung.
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#5
Posted: 11/21/2011 11:04:29 AM
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zamigo6
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#6
Posted: 11/21/2011 11:22:51 AM
Love UMass on it as well....GL
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#7
Posted: 11/21/2011 11:36:27 AM
All the way to -3, phew 
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#8
Posted: 11/21/2011 12:06:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JFen31:

Leans to Michigan, South Dakota State, SMU/Oral Roberts over, and UTSA/Colorado State over.

The last one will depend on the status of Colorado State's glue guy, Pierce Hornung.


^^this. Holy cow are they a different team without him
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zamigo6
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#9
Posted: 11/21/2011 12:10:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bobcat36:



^^this. Holy cow are they a different team without him

very different haha...anyone hear about his status?
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#10
Posted: 11/21/2011 12:10:46 PM
Hornung is out

http://www.coloradoan.com/article/20111121/SPORTS02/111210307
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JFen31
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#11
Posted: 11/21/2011 12:12:52 PM

Good find, Bobcat. I looked about an hour ago but couldn't find anything conclusive.

It is worth noting, though, that Southern Miss is an extraordinarily good offensive rebounding team. Eustachy really emphasizes pounding the offensive glass, and a much smaller UTSA team isn't going to be able to inflict nearly as much damage. Still, Tim Miles says that Hornung is the key to the defense, and combined with the new up-tempo style of play, the over is once again going to be worth a hard look.

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#12
Posted: 11/21/2011 12:16:22 PM
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#13
Posted: 11/21/2011 12:17:47 PM
the number opened where I expected it, but got hammered down and I think you're on the right side with UMass tonight, JFen.

Too late for me to get in on it, but BOL 
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JFen31
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#14
Posted: 11/21/2011 12:17:51 PM
The better over play might be SMU and Oral Roberts at 124. Waiting for 5Dimes to release that one...
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JFen31
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#15
Posted: 11/21/2011 12:18:59 PM

GWarner- I'm surprised that it's moved as much as it has. Lots of people must realize how depleted BC is right now. Great start to the season for you this year. Keep up the great work!

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#16
Posted: 11/21/2011 12:31:27 PM
Everyone is so focused on the spread of Mich vs Memphis while no one is paying attention to the fact the over under is 132 1/2 Memphis is out to prove something and make a statement this year. Michigan on the other hand is trying to revenge there lose to Duke and they only way to do that is to go through memphis. Last year Memphis scored over 68 in there first 13 games (85+ in 5). They scored 97 on Belmont and allowed them to score 80 Michigan hasn't scored many points this year but they know that they didnt have to and going into today I think they know there going to need to in order to beat michigan. This game will be tight throughout leading to late game fouls. Your thoughts?
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JFen31
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#17
Posted: 11/21/2011 12:38:04 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by WinPleasee:

Everyone is so focused on the spread of Mich vs Memphis while no one is paying attention to the fact the over under is 132 1/2 Memphis is out to prove something and make a statement this year. Michigan on the other hand is trying to revenge there lose to Duke and they only way to do that is to go through memphis. Last year Memphis scored over 68 in there first 13 games (85+ in 5). They scored 97 on Belmont and allowed them to score 80 Michigan hasn't scored many points this year but they know that they didnt have to and going into today I think they know there going to need to in order to beat michigan. This game will be tight throughout leading to late game fouls. Your thoughts?

Too many people are basing their opinions of Memphis on the game against Belmont. Remember, styles make fights, and Belmont is a running team. Combined with the crowd noise at FedEx Forum and the pressing Memphis defense, it was hardly a surprise to see Belmont playing at a blistering tempo.

Today, though, will be on a neutral court in unfamilar territory for both teams. Michigan is one of the best defensive transition teams in the country and almost never gets beat in the open court. They are almost always athletically inferior, but force teams to work for shots against the 1-3-1 matchup zone. Memphis will be forced into a halfcourt game today, and I have no idea why anyone would back them in such a contest.

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#18
Posted: 11/21/2011 12:46:10 PM
A lot of useful information in your thread Jfen31

I lock in UTSA+5.5,

Line dropped +4.5 with Hornung out,

I think UTSA wins straight up
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#19
Posted: 11/21/2011 1:05:35 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by troylex300:

A lot of useful information in your thread Jfen31

I lock in UTSA+5.5,

Line dropped +4.5 with Hornung out,

I think UTSA wins straight up

Really? I see the line as having increased to 6.5...

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#20
Posted: 11/21/2011 1:08:22 PM
Well it did dropped to 4.5 at my book, now its 6.5
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#21
Posted: 11/21/2011 1:09:06 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by JFen31:

The better over play might be SMU and Oral Roberts at 124. Waiting for 5Dimes to release that one...

Pinny's got it up at 124.5. Hit it for a unit

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#22
Posted: 11/21/2011 1:20:32 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by WinPleasee:

Everyone is so focused on the spread of Mich vs Memphis while no one is paying attention to the fact the over under is 132 1/2 Memphis is out to prove something and make a statement this year. Michigan on the other hand is trying to revenge there lose to Duke and they only way to do that is to go through memphis. Last year Memphis scored over 68 in there first 13 games (85+ in 5). They scored 97 on Belmont and allowed them to score 80 Michigan hasn't scored many points this year but they know that they didnt have to and going into today I think they know there going to need to in order to beat michigan. This game will be tight throughout leading to late game fouls. Your thoughts?

Agree that most of the attention is focused on the side and not the total...no doubt Michigan will attempt to dumb it down..there's an old axiom in sports betting that held true for ages and thats if you just pick the winner of the game with a spread in the 6/7 range that you'll win at a very high %...just feel the under could be the more appropriate play...true that ot and garbage/ scramble points can ruin a under...game flow is all we have here

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#23
Posted: 11/21/2011 1:27:51 PM
Will Barton and memphis are out to make a big statement today and that has me believing there putting the ball in the basket. memphis also shooting 7-14 from 3 with there athleticism could cause issues for michigan totally changing the pace of the game. I just am trying to find what bet is safest in this one theres so many variables 
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#24
Posted: 11/21/2011 1:29:14 PM
Line back down to 4 1/2 btw
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zamigo6
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#25
Posted: 11/21/2011 1:30:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WinPleasee:

Will Barton and memphis are out to make a big statement today and that has me believing there putting the ball in the basket. memphis also shooting 7-14 from 3 with there athleticism could cause issues for michigan totally changing the pace of the game. I just am trying to find what bet is safest in this one theres so many variables 

the safest bet in this one IMHO is no bet...really unpredictable situation when two clashing styles meet...my gut is that michigan isn't that good and memphis is better, but that doesn't mean garbage in November! This is a game too watch, take mental notes, and then profit off these two teams for the rest of the season...BOL
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