Saturday 11/19 CBB Picks w/Analysis

2010-2011: 164-127

2011-2012: 22-18-2 (+3.9 units)

Only play so far was locked in last night. Gonna add a few more as we go along throughout the day:

UNC-Greensboro +18 @ Middle Tennessee (1 unit)

I happily backed the Blue Raiders as 11-point dogs at UCLA earlier in the week and had them listed as one of my sleeper teams heading into this season. But laying 18 points, especially on the heels of the UCLA upset, is quite an inflated line, IMO. Greensboro has s much improved squad this season and has played some awfully good competition in the non-conference portion of the schedule over the last two seasons. The Spartans will not be intimidated and I'm still contemplating another unit, even at the lesser (16.5) number.

Penn State +10.5 1H vs. Kentucky (1 unit)

Sure, Penn State lost most of its team from last season, but this is basically a pure Kentucky fade. Very, very young squad just scored a major win over Kansas at the Garden a few nights ago and now travels to Foxwoods Casino for a small tournament. Not expecting them to be particularly up in the first half, much like the game against Marist last week. Talent-wise, this is a massive mismatch, but hopefully Kentucky comes out flat and is not ready to play at the outset.

Hey JFen,

Update on the Flyers in case you are looking at this game..

After two games, UD is dead last out of 371 D1 teams in FTA/game. Ten FT's in 85 minutes of play. Coach Miller says that they will focus on getting to the line against UNCW, but don't know how that will work. Only thing I know about UNCW is they had only 6 returning scholarship players, and the star recruit they were expecting to heavily contribute only had 2 pts in opener.

 I picture UD trying to work inside/out early on, then reverting to watching Dillard/Parker/CJ create shots as clock is winding down.

George Mason @ Florida Atlantic -3 (1 unit)

Current leans to Wilmington/Dayton over, Southern Miss/Colorado State over, UTEP +10.5, Towson/Belmont over, College of Charleston +12.5

Penn State...woops. First really BAD pick of the year.

DaProf- Just saw your post. Am leaning towards the over given Miller's expressed desire to play a faster tempo. Any lean there? Appreciate the info, as always.

PP, Aggasi- Good luck to both of you

UD is definitely an over play this year. The ONLY reason that I wouldn't play it today would be the fact about the free throws. Archie is very concerned about the lack of inside scoring, so does that mean he slows it down and makes it a halfcourt game? Like I said he may try it early on, but this team needs to play uptempo. Don't base anything on Miami game.. Chris Johnson picked up 2nd foul two minutes in and sat out entire 1st half. Then picked up 3rd foul early in 2nd half and sat again. He makes a huge difference offensively.

Probably base that pick more on UNCW's style.

Good Luck!

Prof- thanks for the info. I'll pass today because Wilmington's style is pretty unclear. Hopefully the Flyers put on a good performance today.

Charleston +12.5 @ Clemson (2 units)

Tailing KP here but it was also originally a lean of mine. No Goudelock, but still a solid C of C team with a good nucleus and experienced coach. Clemson's style isn't really conducive to blowouts, either. 

George Mason @ Florida Atlantic -3 (1 unit)

which team is your play?

My play is always the side with the number next to it.

thank you, great job with your picks this year! i've been checkin your theads out. great analysis write ups.