trying to keep up with it as best i can and doing monday-sunday weeks based off likely time availability. depending on the scenario and my time constraints i'll try to put reasoning with the games as well.
as the season goes on (ie second half of conference play) i think there is great value in finding overs. that is a long ways off though and i admittedly haven't looked at totals early in the season too much in the past.
monday 11/7
eastern kentucky/ mississipi state over 133.5 (1.1 to win 1)
against the line movement here. pretty safe to say this shouldn't be a nail-biter in terms of being a close game. i think the bigs and athleticism of msu will be too much for eastern kentucky but i also see them as being a team that will take risks on d. if eastern kentucky can hit their 3s i see this going well over, if not it'll be close. i'd also lean on msu covering but this isn't for sides.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
trying to keep up with it as best i can and doing monday-sunday weeks based off likely time availability. depending on the scenario and my time constraints i'll try to put reasoning with the games as well.
as the season goes on (ie second half of conference play) i think there is great value in finding overs. that is a long ways off though and i admittedly haven't looked at totals early in the season too much in the past.
monday 11/7
eastern kentucky/ mississipi state over 133.5 (1.1 to win 1)
against the line movement here. pretty safe to say this shouldn't be a nail-biter in terms of being a close game. i think the bigs and athleticism of msu will be too much for eastern kentucky but i also see them as being a team that will take risks on d. if eastern kentucky can hit their 3s i see this going well over, if not it'll be close. i'd also lean on msu covering but this isn't for sides.
i think if eky covers they'll need mid 60s. i think msu will be mid-high 70s pretty easily. i don't think eky can hold their own down low and their already undersized bigs will get in foul trouble, creating major mismatch potential
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i think if eky covers they'll need mid 60s. i think msu will be mid-high 70s pretty easily. i don't think eky can hold their own down low and their already undersized bigs will get in foul trouble, creating major mismatch potential
waited, hoping the line would continue to drop and it has. i think valpo is gonna shoot the 3 a lot and they have a few guys who shoot it welll. i also see zona pushing the tempo and trying to make a statement in their opener that they are for real. their coach came from xavier a couple years back and his teams were constantly running trying to make plays. wouldn't surprise me to see this touch 150, but more likely 75-65ish, give or take a few points on both sides
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adding in arizona/ valp over 135.5 (1.1 to win 1)
waited, hoping the line would continue to drop and it has. i think valpo is gonna shoot the 3 a lot and they have a few guys who shoot it welll. i also see zona pushing the tempo and trying to make a statement in their opener that they are for real. their coach came from xavier a couple years back and his teams were constantly running trying to make plays. wouldn't surprise me to see this touch 150, but more likely 75-65ish, give or take a few points on both sides
fantastic back door cover from zona/valpo. really shouldn't have been necessary but valpo decided to stop playing for about 8 minutes of the second half and both teams struggled from deep...
early lean for wednesday is st johns/ lehigh over if i can get a favorable line. if st johns sits in a zone lehigh will jack up 3s and they usually spread the floor with 2 shooters to surround mccollum (who might is capable of putting up 30-40 any night by himself). there is no chance they have anyone inside that can defend st johns bigs either. standard lehigh forward is either 6'5, athletic and a hard-worker or 6'9-6'11, slow, uncoordinated, and stupid (only exception last 6 years works in the athletic department now).
also depending on the numbers could add duquesne/ zona over.
gonna look into the other 2 games later on, appreciate input though
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2-0 (+2u)
fantastic back door cover from zona/valpo. really shouldn't have been necessary but valpo decided to stop playing for about 8 minutes of the second half and both teams struggled from deep...
early lean for wednesday is st johns/ lehigh over if i can get a favorable line. if st johns sits in a zone lehigh will jack up 3s and they usually spread the floor with 2 shooters to surround mccollum (who might is capable of putting up 30-40 any night by himself). there is no chance they have anyone inside that can defend st johns bigs either. standard lehigh forward is either 6'5, athletic and a hard-worker or 6'9-6'11, slow, uncoordinated, and stupid (only exception last 6 years works in the athletic department now).
also depending on the numbers could add duquesne/ zona over.
gonna look into the other 2 games later on, appreciate input though
would've liked to have gotten it in at 145.5 but i'll take it here. i think zona will be more than willing to run with the dukes and could even hit 90 if they shoot a little better. wouldn't be surprised to see this total reach 160 and would be very surprised to see it fail to reach 150.
duquesne is losing some, but have a very solid backcourt and will be all over the place again defensively. could easily see both teams attempting 60-70 shots in this one. also like zona on the boards as that is easily the biggest weakness for duquesne.
don't like the number for lehigh, so skipping that but would slightly lean towards under there. gotta look into the other two a little leading up to the game, but definitely wanted to get this in before the line moves too much
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arizona/ duquesne over 146.5 (2.2 to win 2)
would've liked to have gotten it in at 145.5 but i'll take it here. i think zona will be more than willing to run with the dukes and could even hit 90 if they shoot a little better. wouldn't be surprised to see this total reach 160 and would be very surprised to see it fail to reach 150.
duquesne is losing some, but have a very solid backcourt and will be all over the place again defensively. could easily see both teams attempting 60-70 shots in this one. also like zona on the boards as that is easily the biggest weakness for duquesne.
don't like the number for lehigh, so skipping that but would slightly lean towards under there. gotta look into the other two a little leading up to the game, but definitely wanted to get this in before the line moves too much
a&m is really gonna look to push the pace and i can easily see them hitting in the 80s or higher. wouldn't need anything to spectacular out of liberty should that happen
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ttd: 2-0 (+2)
wednesday plays:
arizona/ duquesne over 146.5 (2.2 to win 2)
liberty/ texas a&m over 133 (1.1 to win 1)
a&m is really gonna look to push the pace and i can easily see them hitting in the 80s or higher. wouldn't need anything to spectacular out of liberty should that happen
wright state/ ohio state under 127. i see wright state having a tough time reaching 50, wouldn't surprise me to see a 75-45 ish final. only concern is osu could go off for 90 (which i doubt, as they replace a decent chunk of their team)
columbia/ connecticut over 136. both teams willing to play quickly and returning a lot of their talent and scoring.
oregon/ vandy over 148.5. missing their best bigman, vandy who already likes to push the pace and shoot from outside, will resort to even more guard play. not too worried about first game jitters for them either returning 5 starters (4 playing) and being at home
loyola marymount/ ucla under 140.5. both teams missing maybe their best player. lmu doesn't shoot the 3 much and should get bottled up down low by the ucla bigs that do play. ucla should score low 70s and win by at least 10
UC Irvine/ California over 152. both teams score, both teams shoot a lot, both teams struggled defensively last year. shouldn't be too close but i can see Cal putting up around 90 and failing to cover
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early friday leans:
wright state/ ohio state under 127. i see wright state having a tough time reaching 50, wouldn't surprise me to see a 75-45 ish final. only concern is osu could go off for 90 (which i doubt, as they replace a decent chunk of their team)
columbia/ connecticut over 136. both teams willing to play quickly and returning a lot of their talent and scoring.
oregon/ vandy over 148.5. missing their best bigman, vandy who already likes to push the pace and shoot from outside, will resort to even more guard play. not too worried about first game jitters for them either returning 5 starters (4 playing) and being at home
loyola marymount/ ucla under 140.5. both teams missing maybe their best player. lmu doesn't shoot the 3 much and should get bottled up down low by the ucla bigs that do play. ucla should score low 70s and win by at least 10
UC Irvine/ California over 152. both teams score, both teams shoot a lot, both teams struggled defensively last year. shouldn't be too close but i can see Cal putting up around 90 and failing to cover
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