Butler had to make some adjustments after losing Gordon Heyward to the NBA. So I take some of their early season results with a grain of salt.
This play is mostly about fading a Florida team that seems to get off to a slow start against just about everyone. With the exception of the last two games with UK, Florida has played really well in the 2nd half.
I looked at Butlers early season non-conference schedule against a few tournament teams to see what the results were:
@ Louisville they lost 73-88, 23-41 1h, and 50-47 2h. They held their own on the boards, but shooting .350 from the field, including just .250 from 3 point land, killed them in this one. Lsvlle also had 43 foul shots.
vs Duke L70-82, 33-331h, 37-49 2h. Butler was leading 44-42 with 10 minutes to play, suffered through a 12-0 duke run, and went on a 13-6 run of their own to still be within 3 with 7 minutes left, and starting guard shelvin Mack was out the last 13 minutes of the game with leg cramps. a couple of Duke 3's on the next 2 possessions were the difference really. However, Butler hung with one of the best teams in the nation for 3/4's of the game.
@Xavier L 49-51. 24-32, 25-19. You can see Butler was outplayed in the 1h, and as you said, they won the 2nd. It was a road game, and frequently the better road team has to overcome a lot of home crowd energy. Butler was the better team there, but just fell a couple seconds short. This game with florida is going to be neutral court, if not more people pulling for the underdog.
FSU W67-64, 21-19, 45-46. That's a pretty good FSU team they beat around xmas.
As you can see, there's not a lot of pattern here as far as first half 2nd half. During the season I try to find teams who maybe come out hot, and fade, or teams who consistently start slow, and heat up. It gives you a nice advantage playing half by half.
Georgia for instance was a pretty good 1h team, but usually got beat up in the 2nd half. Florida was just the opposite.
Uconn, 3 years in a row, has had a Jan/Feb "fade" run in the 1h. This year they went 7 in a row where they did NOT cover the first half, followed immediately by this current run of 10 in a row where they DID. Last year uconn and texas had a 1h fade run where they were 2-21 ATS. It smelled like shaving to me. It seems like too big a coincidence to have it happen with Uconn 3 years in a row.
Purdue last year was like 1-7 ats in the first half, on the road. But the opposite in the 2nd half. MSU was very similar.
Who knows why florida has been struggling to start games. They had 4 strt home games towards the end of the season where they lost the 1h outright.
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