Posted:
#1
Hey guys, I'll be brief (yeah right), just want to share my UTSA knowledge with you (I was 4-0 on sides with UTSA since the start of the conference tourney - the only lined games of their season). My 4-year old daughter and I attended almost all of UTSA's home games this year (I'm alumni) and UTSA has two HUGE weaknesses (along with other weakness you can expect from the Kenpom 217th ranked team in the country).
1. They have ZERO post/interior defense and they are a terrible rebounding team - do you think that might be a problem against Sullinger? The Southland Conference has very mediocre post players this year (many teams pressed and played uptempo and it was a guard oriented league) and yet UTSA was still consistent dominated by post players that had a pulse.
2. They are AWFUL at defending the 3-pt shot/they foul a ton if the team isn't a 3-pt shooting team. As mentioned above, the Southland Conference was an uptempo league full of teams that pressed and drove the ball to the hole. The league didn't have any solid 3-pt shooting teams so their horrible 2-3 zone defense worked decently in conference play. Here are a few stats from their D1 non-conference games:
Evansville: 33 free throws attempted
SJSU 7-19 3's for 37%
Riverside 10-21 3's for 48%
Pepperdine 39 free throws attempted
Samford 18-39 3's WOW 46%
Tulsa 13-25 3's for 52%
*Ohio St is the #2 3-pt shooting team in the country and their top 3 guards shoot 39% (Lighty), 41% (Buford), and 50% (Diebler) from 3-pt land.
OBVIOUSLY there would be mismatches in 1 vs 16 game, but often times both teams have strengths or weaknesses that are similar, in this case, UTSA's two biggest weaknesses are two of the biggest strengths of the top team in the country.
UTSA had to win three of their last four games to even ATTEND the Southland conference tourney and have now had to win four games in 7 days to get the honor of facing the #1 overall seed in the tourney less than 48 hours after the play-in game.
Anything can happen and I will be the first to admit that I am pessimistic towards my team, but I feel like there is just as good of a chance that UTSA loses this game by 40+ as there is that they keep it to 20. Kenpom says UTSA will lose by 28 and tend to agree. If they played this game 10 times I feel like Ohio St would cover the number 7 (or more) of those times, so that makes this is a solid play for me. Please realize that there are a million ways a huge underdog can cover (hence the reason I play dogs so much) so be prepared for heartbreak and a stressful afternoon if you make this play. Also please realize that if (after you cap this game yourself) you bet on Ohio St, I will still be cheering against you and will be thrilled if my Roadrunners make an awesome showing. However, the numbers compel me to bet on Ohio St.
Good luck with whatever you decide and I hope this NCAA tourney is very profitable (and stress-free) for you. We are all in this together.
Before you ask, I have no idea if you should bet Ohio St as the number continues to climb, that is something you will have to decide for yourself. I won't be around so if you want to speak with me, just hit me on the PM as many of my friends do.
1. They have ZERO post/interior defense and they are a terrible rebounding team - do you think that might be a problem against Sullinger? The Southland Conference has very mediocre post players this year (many teams pressed and played uptempo and it was a guard oriented league) and yet UTSA was still consistent dominated by post players that had a pulse.
2. They are AWFUL at defending the 3-pt shot/they foul a ton if the team isn't a 3-pt shooting team. As mentioned above, the Southland Conference was an uptempo league full of teams that pressed and drove the ball to the hole. The league didn't have any solid 3-pt shooting teams so their horrible 2-3 zone defense worked decently in conference play. Here are a few stats from their D1 non-conference games:
Evansville: 33 free throws attempted
SJSU 7-19 3's for 37%
Riverside 10-21 3's for 48%
Pepperdine 39 free throws attempted
Samford 18-39 3's WOW 46%
Tulsa 13-25 3's for 52%
*Ohio St is the #2 3-pt shooting team in the country and their top 3 guards shoot 39% (Lighty), 41% (Buford), and 50% (Diebler) from 3-pt land.
OBVIOUSLY there would be mismatches in 1 vs 16 game, but often times both teams have strengths or weaknesses that are similar, in this case, UTSA's two biggest weaknesses are two of the biggest strengths of the top team in the country.
UTSA had to win three of their last four games to even ATTEND the Southland conference tourney and have now had to win four games in 7 days to get the honor of facing the #1 overall seed in the tourney less than 48 hours after the play-in game.
Anything can happen and I will be the first to admit that I am pessimistic towards my team, but I feel like there is just as good of a chance that UTSA loses this game by 40+ as there is that they keep it to 20. Kenpom says UTSA will lose by 28 and tend to agree. If they played this game 10 times I feel like Ohio St would cover the number 7 (or more) of those times, so that makes this is a solid play for me. Please realize that there are a million ways a huge underdog can cover (hence the reason I play dogs so much) so be prepared for heartbreak and a stressful afternoon if you make this play. Also please realize that if (after you cap this game yourself) you bet on Ohio St, I will still be cheering against you and will be thrilled if my Roadrunners make an awesome showing. However, the numbers compel me to bet on Ohio St.
Good luck with whatever you decide and I hope this NCAA tourney is very profitable (and stress-free) for you. We are all in this together.
Before you ask, I have no idea if you should bet Ohio St as the number continues to climb, that is something you will have to decide for yourself. I won't be around so if you want to speak with me, just hit me on the PM as many of my friends do.
0
Thanks Kine. Good luck. Let's get this!
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