Friday CBB Forecast (Purdue vs. Michigan State)

Only playing one game this evening.  I like Michigan State to stay within the number and win s/u tonight against Purdue.  Purdue went into Iowa City and collapsed when potentially a share of the Big Ten title was at stake and a chance to be a number 1 seed.  Tonight, another one of Purdue's goals are on the line (winning the conference tournament)  and my gut tells me this is going to be another letdown spot for the Boilermakers when Tom Izzo, the month of March, and a tournament bid is potentially up for grabs for MSU.  The numbers are clear, Purdue has had it's way with Michigan State this season, but a lot of factors have changed my numbers in regards to this contest. Purdue has a difficult time overcoming pressure.  When nothing is on the line, they have no problems putting teams away. But, when a trophy, 1 seed, conference championship, etc is on the line, they have historically had a ton of difficulty meeting their goals and overcoming the pressure.  Almost the carbon copy opposite in regards to Michigan State.  Tonight, I think we will see Michigan State play it's best game of the season and stay within the 7 points through quality coaching, leadership and the fact that they need this game to put a final stamp on their ticket for the big dance.  Kalin's ankle is slightly ailing, but he plans on playing, and I expect this to be a much closer game than what's being projected with Michigan State prevailing in the end with a big game out of Draymond Green.

This is all I am playing tonight.

Michigan State +7 Big
Michigan State +280 Small

Best of luck regardless of your sides today, it's shaping to be a great weekend of college basketball.

FF

good luck i'm playing msu also, but small, kalins ankle is too big of a question mark, I think the 3 and 4 free throws durrell summers hit at the end of the iowa game could be the confident boost he needs to finally get back to the player he was last march, good luck

opposite side

to much like a home game for Purdue

gl

 Go get em!

*do you play bases.?

BOL

I like this play a lot. Tons of people were on Mich St yesterday then jumped off the bandwagon after seeing their lackluster play. Granted they looked terrible at times, I think they come out with a full effort tonight and have a great shot at the outright win.

 BOL on the play!!

I had Purdue in the first game, was a MSU lean in the second (but a no play) but my gut tells me Purdue wins this one going away.

MSU is banged up, Lucas sprained his ankle pretty bad last night. Lewis Jackson is pretty quick and if Kalin doesn't have that explosiveness, he's not effective. Roe is always hurt. And Summers is a space cadet.

Purdue hasn't played since their uncharacteristic loss @ Iowa. I expect them to come out mad and pound MSU. MSU is too banged up, probably a little tired, and just doesn't have that "Izzo Magic" this year.

I still think MSU gets in the tourney with a L, but it'll be close...

I will be playing baseball this year and posting plays.  It's probably my best sport along with NFL in reference to handicapping.  I typically don't go too heavy in college basketball season until the NFL season is over with and towards the end of the regular season.  The tournament has always brought back positive results and I plan on having a lot of action this year on what's shaping to be a wide open tournament with a lot of surprises.

D-Town (legend), Jayzlevel, Ezrider, Morris, Sportsmoneynow. Best of luck tonight

Gollum, I think he will still perform at a high enough level tonight, and all reports are that he will be ready to go come tip off.  Summers should be a key player in tonight's game as well, and hopefully his performance down the stretch carries over.

Tooez, I think we are going to see the best effort we have seen out of Michigan State all season later this afternoon.  Izzo will have them fired up, and I expect the defense to be there all game.  I sense that they will finally contain Johnson to moderate numbers, and the real question for the Boilermakers is what third guy beyond Johnson and Moore is going to step up. 

chitownbadger, I don't think this one is going to be the pounding that most are projecting.  A much different set of circumstances revolving around this game, and as I stated earlier, when something meaningful in terms of season goals, advancing in the big dance, winning the conference tournament, splitting the big ten title, number 1 seed etc is on the line...Purdue has historically fallen apart where Michigan State has always stepped up to the plate even when there were injuries and players not at full strength, especially when something such as a tournament berth could be on the line.

Michigan State vs. Purdue Doppler Radar

Michigan State 72
Purdue 66

Best of luck everyone

No play second half, but I like the way the Spartans have looked out of the gate.  If Purdue can't find something around the perimeter, this one might be over with relatively soon with Moore and Jackson struggling.

Everything went as expected in the Forecast tonight, a little off on the score, but this one was relatively never a threat.

Best of luck everyone the rest of the way.


Michigan State +7 Big
Michigan State +280 Small

nice job

Thanks, Morris .  Purdue left their season in Iowa City, and I wouldn't be surprised if they fall first round-pending the match-up.  Coach Painter has yet to show me he is ready to coach on the center stage, and Purdue definitely looked like a team that wasn't prepared this evening.  I thought Michigan State would win, but I didn't think it would be this convincing. I was hoping for more of a first half battle to sprinkle some on the second half, but the wager I put on this one was more than enough to ride out the full game with the points and ml.  

Great call. 

great call!!

Appreciate it guys,

I'm going to add one more play this evening.

Adding
UNLV +1

These teams match up well and UNLV has been playing great lately since losing to SDSU.  I think they pull off a late victory here that's essentially a home game and win this one by 6-8 tonight
(early morning).  A huge revenge factor in this game, and I think UNLV will force a lot of turnovers, and ultimately win this game in the final few minutes of the game.  

Adding

2nd half play UNLV -2

This game is far from over,  I like UNLV to step it up the second half here and make this a game.  A few tough breaks there at the end, but I like them to climb back into this game out of the gate in the second half.

Well, I was right about the game coming down to the final few minutes, unfortunately things didn't go UNLV's way at the end.  The foul inside by the rebels giving up control of the game clock and not converting on the other end was the demise of UNLV as time went down.  Still happy with the Forecast this evening, best of luck everyone tomorrow. 

Michigan State +7 Big
Michigan State +280 Small
2nd half play UNLV -2
UNLV +1

man, you are good.

Great work with Michigan State, Floyd. I played them too and added an extra chunk to the moneyline after reading your analysis. Continued success...