An argument for Duke

Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve found myself in the middle of an interesting if unintended debate: At about +400 to repeat as national champion, is Duke overvalued, priced just about right or a bargain?

For my money, the answer is somewhere between correct price and bargain, and I’ll explain why. 

The subject came up between a Covers.com editor and I a few weeks ago, and it was a hot topic among oddsmakers and handicappers who were interviewed for a piece on this site regarding NCAA team prices.

I even engaged in a little debate with another blogger here who beat up on Duke in the wake of its blowout loss to North Carolina, and it seems everyone in the gambling circles in which I run has a Duke story or two to tell, yours truly included.

Coincidentally, one of the biggest wins and one of toughest losses of my gambling career came in Duke games. I won a nice bet backing the Blue Devils -4 against Arizona in the NCAA title game, and took a memorable loss in the 2004 Final Four when I took UConn -1.5 against Duke.

Certain I was correct in backing Emeka Okafor, Ben Gordon and the Huskies against the Devils, the game left me with a souvenir in my wallet and a good story to tell when Chris Duhon hit a half-court shot at the buzzer to make the final score 79-78 and give Duke backers the cash.

And therein lies the beauty of backing the Devils … rarely do they fail to give you a chance to win. I realize the poor timing of that statement, given their last performance against North Carolina. But that was a tough spot in which to back any team; on the road against a team of equal talent with a revenge factor and conference title at stake.      

But when you take a broader view, Duke gives you a chance to win more often than not. In other words, it’s not often you back Duke and, 5 minutes in, have that moment of bettor’s remorse when you think, “Oh f#%! I’m on the wrong side.” Sure, it happens on rare occasions (at St. John’s this year, at Georgetown last season), but with nowhere near the frequency of risk you run with other teams.

Almost without exception, backing Duke gives you the better team and the better coach. At worst, it might be a push in either category. If such is the case, coach Mike Krzyzewski’s experience and ability to make in-game adjustments give you an edge, and if you can get Duke as an underdog, you should take it.

Coach K hasn’t won four national titles by accident. He’s also fairly ruthless when it comes to keeping the foot on a beaten opponent. Rarely do the subs see the floor before the final few seconds, even in a massive blowout.

Of course, the time to take Duke isn’t when it’s laying 8 points on the road to a decent team like St. John’s or 20 points at home against Georgia Tech. The time to take Duke is when there is something at stake against a decent opponent on a neutral court. That’s when you get value and when the Devils thrive, as they went 5-1 ATS in last year’s tournament, failing to cover against Butler in the title game.

As Duke teams go, this one rates somewhere in the middle of the pack. With two stars in Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith, it’s a better team than the 1994 Grant Hill-led squad that went to a Final Four -- by far Coach K’s least-talented team to go that far -- and his 1999 club that started Shane Battier, Elton Brand, Corey Maggette and Trajan Langdon. Neither team won the national title.

With all the parity in college basketball, this Duke club has ad good a chance at repeating this year as any of the top teams have at winning it all. Sure, the Devils could run into a cold shooting night against a hot team and get sent home, like they did two years ago against a Final Four-bound Villanova club.

But, as +400 future bets go, taking Duke to repeat is going to give you a better chance than most.