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Tuesday Atlantic-10 Hoops Rd. 1 Conf. Tourney

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Posted: #1

YTD Total 85-63-4 (+20.19 units)
Big Plays (6-3) (2+ units)

Sides: 54-39-2
Totals: 31-24-2
ML dogs: 1-1
Parlays: 2-5


Pending:
Under 3 A-10 teams to make NCAA's (2.5 units to win 6 units)

Well, it was a pretty good regular season. I got as high as 26 units and finished up at 20 units. It was a pretty odd year for the A-10. I made a fair share less bets than last year because of this. I made a shade over 200 plays at years end last year. Right now I sit on a little over 150. With post season tournaments etc it might hit in the low 160's. I dont really see anyone other than the top 3 seeds with a legit chance to win the conference tournament or even make the NCAA or NIT. The dukes, URI, and Dayton have hurt their chances massively. I am not sure how many teams would take a CBI invite either.

I appreciate all of the comments this year and it was nice to see a bunch who did tail and made money. Hopefully the post season will treat me as good as it did last year.

Scootie Randall is apparently unavailable for Temple still for the tournament. Hopefully he can make a return for the NCAA's.

I dont really see any true value on anyone for the conference tournament. Dayton has the talent in some aspects, so at 30/1 you have to think about it, but I dont see it.

I will be there for the 4 games Friday, but cant stay the weekend. Should be fun as usual. I will have my laptop so I will be able to post as they have always had wireless available in Boardwalk Hall.

Lets get onto the games...no lines yet...but I will project...

#5 George Washington vs. #12 St. Joseph's +6 130.5
#6 Rhode Island vs. #11. St. Louis +6.5 126
#7 St. Bonaventure vs. #10 La Salle +5.5 147
#8 Massachusetts vs. #9 Dayton +1.5 129

Winners advance to play the top 4 in bye's...on March 11th

8/9 winner plays #1 Xavier at 12pm
5/12 winner plays #4 Duquesne at 2:30 pm
7/10 winner plays #2 Temple at 6:30 pm
6/11 winner plays #3 Richmond at 9 pm

 
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Posted: #2
Is the stlouis rhode island game a tourney game? I assume it is but on the covers scoreboard for tuesday its listed above the tourney games
 
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Posted: #3
Yes, it is a tournament game.

Covers must have botched that.
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by CrusCrnshw:

Yes, it is a tournament game.

Covers must have botched that.
I figured just wanted to make sure
 
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Posted: #5
My totals/spreads are rather different than Kenpom's projections, which are often close. Probably its more in the middle of both, but I do not see how URI is -3 against STL. They just laid 7 to a solid GW team...and beat STL on the road by 2 already this year. I can't see that line any lower than 5...

another big difference is the total in Lasalle/Bona. 7 pts off...probably will be somewhere in the middle
 
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Posted: #6
Prolly gonna push your future for the tourney. Temple and Xavier are locks. Richmond just has to win 1 game in the tourney to secure their spot I believe.
 
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Posted: #8
I actually like SLU quite a bit. Their defense is designed to completely take away the three-ball and that's a major part of URI's offense. Of course, they're brutally inexperienced, but I like the way they played in the second half of the season.

I'm actually optimistic about St. Joes' chances for one of the few times this year. Galloway is on a tear and these guys are gaining confidence rapidly. Hard to believe, but they're 4-4 in their last eight games and showed a ton of resolve in the game at Charlotte. I don't know if they'll pull it out, but GW was a decent draw compared to the other options and they might be able to do enough to keep it close until the end.

I may be in AC as well. If the Hawks manage to win on Tuesday, it's pretty much a definite
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by Wiggums5:

Prolly gonna push your future for the tourney. Temple and Xavier are locks. Richmond just has to win 1 game in the tourney to secure their spot I believe.


Most likely correct. I figured 7 out of 10 times this would be a push. I thought there was a chance Richmond could lose one of their 2 remaining games, but I did like the line I got with them against the Dukes, so I played.

I do disagree though on Richmond just needs to win 1 game. Beating URI or St. Louis will not help their resume at all. Losing would knock them out. Winning puts them up against most likely Temple, and a loss there would put them on the L4 in or L4 out section, depending on bids stolen from teams like VCU or whatever. Richmond wins there, then I believe they are a lock. Lose, and it is close.
Hopefully Temple/X/Richmond win and it is at worst a push, which I am sure it is...
 
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Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

I actually like SLU quite a bit. Their defense is designed to completely take away the three-ball and that's a major part of URI's offense. Of course, they're brutally inexperienced, but I like the way they played in the second half of the season.

I'm actually optimistic about St. Joes' chances for one of the few times this year. Galloway is on a tear and these guys are gaining confidence rapidly. Hard to believe, but they're 4-4 in their last eight games and showed a ton of resolve in the game at Charlotte. I don't know if they'll pull it out, but GW was a decent draw compared to the other options and they might be able to do enough to keep it close until the end.

I may be in AC as well. If the Hawks manage to win on Tuesday, it's pretty much a definite


Never know what you will get from URI at home...however URI is not a good 3pt shooting team. Sure, they live on it at times, but they dont fair well from there. URI will like to the play the half court game. STL could win this for sure . I hope not, as I have not gotten to see my boys play live for what is not probably close to 9 years.

Joes have played tight lately, but GW is striding. Could be close, but I dont know about ST. Joes winning . I would potentially pick GW over Duquesne depending on how GW looks against St. Joes (and if they win). GW should be getting 4 or so against Duquesne...
 
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Posted: #11
If Richmond plays Temple in the semis and loses I don't think that will really hurt them. Richmond has only one bad loss on the year and that was to Gtech. They also lost to URI which isn't that great either. Their other losses to Iona, ODU, and Bucknell aren't looking too bad now that Iona and ODU are in in their conference final tonight and Bucknell is in the final too. Well, here's to hoping 3 A10 teams make the dance!
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by CrusCrnshw:



Never know what you will get from URI at home...however URI is not a good 3pt shooting team. Sure, they live on it at times, but they dont fair well from there. URI will like to the play the half court game. STL could win this for sure . I hope not, as I have not gotten to see my boys play live for what is not probably close to 9 years.

Joes have played tight lately, but GW is striding. Could be close, but I dont know about ST. Joes winning . I would potentially pick GW over Duquesne depending on how GW looks against St. Joes (and if they win). GW should be getting 4 or so against Duquesne...

I def agree with you on GW. I like GW to beat St Joes and the Dukes. GW has been playing great ball as of late and you don't know how the Dukes are gonna play. The Dukes were a real dissapointment after that great start to the year.
 
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Posted: #13

Quote Originally Posted by CrusCrnshw:



Never know what you will get from URI at home...however URI is not a good 3pt shooting team. Sure, they live on it at times, but they dont fair well from there. URI will like to the play the half court game. STL could win this for sure . I hope not, as I have not gotten to see my boys play live for what is not probably close to 9 years.

Joes have played tight lately, but GW is striding. Could be close, but I dont know about ST. Joes winning . I would potentially pick GW over Duquesne depending on how GW looks against St. Joes (and if they win). GW should be getting 4 or so against Duquesne...

Agree that GW is playing very well. I didn't expect them to be quite this good but they've proven me wrong all season. I still think it's a more winnable venue than Bonaventure or UMASS, though. GW is basically the same team at home as it is on the road.

Do you think we'll see a Temple/Xavier final?

 
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If we meet Richmond in the semis it's gonna be a tough game and i'm not very optimistic. First we gotta get by the Bonnies or Lasalle and that's no lock either. Last 3 conference games we've started off terrible going into half losing or a slight lead. Lasalle scares me a bit as they've turned it on since their blowout loss to X.
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by CrusCrnshw:



Most likely correct. I figured 7 out of 10 times this would be a push. I thought there was a chance Richmond could lose one of their 2 remaining games, but I did like the line I got with them against the Dukes, so I played.

I do disagree though on Richmond just needs to win 1 game. Beating URI or St. Louis will not help their resume at all. Losing would knock them out. Winning puts them up against most likely Temple, and a loss there would put them on the L4 in or L4 out section, depending on bids stolen from teams like VCU or whatever. Richmond wins there, then I believe they are a lock. Lose, and it is close.
Hopefully Temple/X/Richmond win and it is at worst a push, which I am sure it is...


Agree on pretty much everything you said there.

I've liked Richmond since last year, but they've been a bit disappointing with some unfortunate losses that have them on the bubble. I think they have the greatest motivation of the teams that will get at-larges from this conference, and I want to play them against URI in a revenge spot and against Temple in another revenge spot.

The Owls won by 20, but they shot the ball so well (56%) that I'm not sure we can count on that again. They are also pretty banged up and from what I've heard it seems that Scootie Randall won't be there and he had a 10-5 game in the victory. Same goes for URI who shot the lights out by hitting 12 3pt shots on the road (how?!?!?) and Malesovic went 6/8 from deep? Doubt that sorta thing happens again, so that's who I want.

Still think the X-men are the best team in the conference and it's not close, but their motivation here can definitely be questioned
 
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Richmond has a great away from home record. I totally agree. I am not debating against them or for them, just stating how I see it right now based on the "experts" projections for the field. I do think losing could hurt them in the Semi's. Will it cost them for sure, no, but depending on what other teams do below them, it just might.

Jfen, obviously those are the 2 favs...and I think both teams have motivation not to want to be an 8 or 9 seed in the dance and face a #1 if they win. I think if Temple were to beat X in the finals, you would probably see 2 7 seeds...

Someone always has a chance to surprise, but this year I dont see it outside of the top 4. MAYBE GW makes the semis...that is as far as I see things..or if URI gets lucky again if they make AC and beat Richmond. I do not see X or Temple under any circumstances losing in Qtrs.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by CrusCrnshw:

Richmond has a great away from home record. I totally agree. I am not debating against them or for them, just stating how I see it right now based on the "experts" projections for the field. I do think losing could hurt them in the Semi's. Will it cost them for sure, no, but depending on what other teams do below them, it just might.

Jfen, obviously those are the 2 favs...and I think both teams have motivation not to want to be an 8 or 9 seed in the dance and face a #1 if they win. I think if Temple were to beat X in the finals, you would probably see 2 7 seeds...

Someone always has a chance to surprise, but this year I dont see it outside of the top 4. MAYBE GW makes the semis...that is as far as I see things..or if URI gets lucky again if they make AC and beat Richmond. I do not see X or Temple under any circumstances losing in Qtrs.


that's great for your prop
 
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Posted: #19
sju is going to win agaisnt gw.... ad prolly the a10 then look out in the ncaa... big run i feel it coming
 
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Posted: #20
in all seriousness xavier +210 is really good value
 
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Posted: #21
If you can find X +210 go for it...I haven't seen anything near that
 
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Posted: #22
Lines are up for tomorrow.

Lasalle +5 vs Bonaventure
St. Joes +7.5 vs GW
St. Louis +4 vs URI
Dayton -1.5 vs Umass

I'm leaning Lasalle, GW, URI, and Dayton.

 
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That URI is mildly low...a point or about. Will think about URI. They dont match up too bad against StL. They just saw pressure from GW..that will make the pressure STL will put on them a bit easier to handle (one would think).

I lean Bona pretty good...5 is too low...LaSalle is playing better  but Bona is playing some good ball...

Wont touch that dayton game probably....GW at 7.5..no thanks most likely...if it drops maybe...
 
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So far...

St. Bona -4.5 (1.5 units)

While I do not see a 21 pt thrashing like we saw with the Explorers last visit to Olean, this is still a team who does have identity issues. For their pace of play, their defensive efficiency is horrible, making way for poor transition defense...something that the mediocre but deceivingly quick guards of Bona can take advantage of. Nicholson will do his usual, but it comes down to guys like Ogo, Conger etc to help make the impact. LaSalle is playing a bit better of late, but so are the Bonnies, they are 8-2 in their L 10 ATS. They had their awful game in Philly against St. joes, and played Duquesne tight in Pitts. A nice win against a tough defensive team in URI, led by a dominating performance from Nicholson, shows me that this team has at least taken that next step from the bottom of the A-10 to squarely right in the middle, and at times dangerous.

Olean has always been a tough place to play, and I dont see the veteran leadership out of LaSalle. Too inconsistent and too star-eyed defensively for me to not play -4.5...hopefully no backdoor covers...

 
 
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