Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NCAAB Record:
26-12 @ 68% for +12.8 Units
Fri, 02/18
Harvard Crimson -4.5
Harvard is coming into this game with a 7-1 conference mark, sitting 2nd in the Ivy League behind Princeton (7-0). Actually, Harvard's only conference-loss of the season was a 4-point road loss to Princeton. Cornell is not the same squad that made the tourney last year. This team lost a lot of quality players and is only 2-6 in the conference this year, tied for 6th spot. There are 2 major factors in play here:
#1: Even though Harvard has already won one meeting with the Big Red this season, I expect them to be just as motivated to 'whoop' on their rival in this one as well. Prior to this year, Cornell has beaten Harvard in 5 of their last 6 match-ups. Now that Crimson has the better team, it's time for a little 'payback' every chance they get.
#2: And this is the more critical of the 2 factors: Ivy League is the ONLY league that does NOT hold a conference tournament at the end of its regular season, with the NCAA tourney-bid going to the team with the BEST regular season record. As I've wrote above, Harvard is 1 game back of Princenton (they're playing them again in a season finale at home). They cannot afford to have a 'let-down' game against a 6-16 team like Cornell.
Breaking this game down from a statistical standpoint, we have the #1 most efficient team in the Ivy League (Harvard) going against the most inefficient defensive team in the conference (Cornell). On the season, Crimson have a 53.6% EFG% (#27 in NCAAB) and shoot 37% from 'downtown' (#64). This team knows how to get to the free-throw line and more importantly, they know what do when they get there -- 79% from the 'charity stripe' good for #3 in CBB. Defensively, Harvard keeps their opponents away from the FT line, ranking as 6th best team in terms of FTA/FGA. They also do a good job cleaning up defensive rebounds (#77). Consequently, Cornell is one of the worst teams in all of college basketball at offensive rebounding (#292) and getting to the FT line (#294). Not many FTA's and minimial offensive rebounds, leads me to think that Cornell will have a lot of 'one-and-done' possessions in this one. This team already has a sub-par EFG% of only 48.1% (#214) and unless they're making their initial shots, I don't see a lot of opportunities for 'cheap' points in this one.
My one concern in this game is Cornell's ability to cause turnovers, ranking #1 in Ivy League at forcing their opponents to turn the ball over, about 22% of the time. Harvard is actually one of the worst teams in Ivy League in protecting the ball on offense, turning it over 21% of their possesions. If Cornell is successful in putting constant defensive pressure on Harvard, then this game will be much closer than I expect. In the first game between these 2 squads, Cornell only caused 4 TO's compared to having 13 of their own. Obviously you can't expect the same TO discrepancy on the road, but the fact that Harvard only turned the ball over 4 times against the Big Red in the first meeting is definitely encouraging for tonight's contest.
Cornell is 3-5 at home this season while Harvard is 6-4 on the road. The 4 losses came @ George Mason (13 pts), @ Michigan (3 pts), @ UCONN (29 pts) and @ Princeton (4 points). These are some tough opponents. Currently though, Harvard is riding a 4-1 road streak (one of these wins was @ a solid Boston College squad), and I expect them to be successful again tonight.
I know this is a 'revenge' game for Cornell, but this team is 0-2 ATS/SU in such scenarios this year. In addition, they are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games, rendering their home-court advantage as pretty much non-existent. Harvard is playing their next 4 games away from home, and it will be crucial for this team to get a convincing win in the first one. I expect solid effort from them tonight. Even though Harvard is 5-5 ATS as a favorite this year, they are actually 10-0 SU in those situations. This team hasn't been 'upset' yet, and I see no reason why it would happen tonight. If Crimson wants to guarantee themselves a spot in the NCAAB tourney this year, they must 'win-out' beginning with tonight's game. I expect a convincing double-digit win for them today.
Good luck!
26-12 @ 68% for +12.8 Units
Fri, 02/18
Harvard Crimson -4.5
Harvard is coming into this game with a 7-1 conference mark, sitting 2nd in the Ivy League behind Princeton (7-0). Actually, Harvard's only conference-loss of the season was a 4-point road loss to Princeton. Cornell is not the same squad that made the tourney last year. This team lost a lot of quality players and is only 2-6 in the conference this year, tied for 6th spot. There are 2 major factors in play here:
#1: Even though Harvard has already won one meeting with the Big Red this season, I expect them to be just as motivated to 'whoop' on their rival in this one as well. Prior to this year, Cornell has beaten Harvard in 5 of their last 6 match-ups. Now that Crimson has the better team, it's time for a little 'payback' every chance they get.
#2: And this is the more critical of the 2 factors: Ivy League is the ONLY league that does NOT hold a conference tournament at the end of its regular season, with the NCAA tourney-bid going to the team with the BEST regular season record. As I've wrote above, Harvard is 1 game back of Princenton (they're playing them again in a season finale at home). They cannot afford to have a 'let-down' game against a 6-16 team like Cornell.
Breaking this game down from a statistical standpoint, we have the #1 most efficient team in the Ivy League (Harvard) going against the most inefficient defensive team in the conference (Cornell). On the season, Crimson have a 53.6% EFG% (#27 in NCAAB) and shoot 37% from 'downtown' (#64). This team knows how to get to the free-throw line and more importantly, they know what do when they get there -- 79% from the 'charity stripe' good for #3 in CBB. Defensively, Harvard keeps their opponents away from the FT line, ranking as 6th best team in terms of FTA/FGA. They also do a good job cleaning up defensive rebounds (#77). Consequently, Cornell is one of the worst teams in all of college basketball at offensive rebounding (#292) and getting to the FT line (#294). Not many FTA's and minimial offensive rebounds, leads me to think that Cornell will have a lot of 'one-and-done' possessions in this one. This team already has a sub-par EFG% of only 48.1% (#214) and unless they're making their initial shots, I don't see a lot of opportunities for 'cheap' points in this one.
My one concern in this game is Cornell's ability to cause turnovers, ranking #1 in Ivy League at forcing their opponents to turn the ball over, about 22% of the time. Harvard is actually one of the worst teams in Ivy League in protecting the ball on offense, turning it over 21% of their possesions. If Cornell is successful in putting constant defensive pressure on Harvard, then this game will be much closer than I expect. In the first game between these 2 squads, Cornell only caused 4 TO's compared to having 13 of their own. Obviously you can't expect the same TO discrepancy on the road, but the fact that Harvard only turned the ball over 4 times against the Big Red in the first meeting is definitely encouraging for tonight's contest.
Cornell is 3-5 at home this season while Harvard is 6-4 on the road. The 4 losses came @ George Mason (13 pts), @ Michigan (3 pts), @ UCONN (29 pts) and @ Princeton (4 points). These are some tough opponents. Currently though, Harvard is riding a 4-1 road streak (one of these wins was @ a solid Boston College squad), and I expect them to be successful again tonight.
I know this is a 'revenge' game for Cornell, but this team is 0-2 ATS/SU in such scenarios this year. In addition, they are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games, rendering their home-court advantage as pretty much non-existent. Harvard is playing their next 4 games away from home, and it will be crucial for this team to get a convincing win in the first one. I expect solid effort from them tonight. Even though Harvard is 5-5 ATS as a favorite this year, they are actually 10-0 SU in those situations. This team hasn't been 'upset' yet, and I see no reason why it would happen tonight. If Crimson wants to guarantee themselves a spot in the NCAAB tourney this year, they must 'win-out' beginning with tonight's game. I expect a convincing double-digit win for them today.
Good luck!
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