I will post all the results at the bottom of this post. Just wanted to remind you guys again that these are "presystem" plays and I'm still convinced that the "system" plays will be stronger, but because of the 11-1 start I'm personally compelled to bet these plays.
I will also say again that I'd be thrilled with 60+% with either (or both) systems so obviously 11-1 is great but I am very pessimistic about it continuing to go nuts. I'm all about grinding out winning days over and over again to lead to success.
Now with that being said, I believe that the principles of the system will lead to continued success. Now remember the less you "research" these plays the better as they won't look very appealing (although for some reason a few are to me tomorrow - yikes).
We have 4 system plays as of right now. We have 2 or 3 more that I'm confident will become system plays. We also have 1 or 2 more that might be system plays (I'll explain below)
Play 1: SE Missouri St +8.5 I think we get some value at the opening line of 8.5 but I think
if we wait we could get 9 or better Now keep in mind that on matchbook the money has started
to come in on SE Miss St so the juice is already higher on their side.
Your call, I'm probably going to wait to see if I can get 9 or better,
but if it starts to move the other way I'm going to grab it quick.
Play 2: Tenn Martin +9 I
really ticked about this one as I expected the line to be around +11. I don't like
it as much at 9 (obviously) but it is a system play so I will be playing it. If this line was 11 or higher as I expected it to be, it would have been at least a 2-unit play for me (maybe that is a bad sign!) This line should move it but I'm worried since it started lower than expected.
Play 3: Louisiana Monroe +11.5 This
line looks just right and I do like Monroe here (again that actually worries me!). Hopefully you can get
+12 but because it was a system winner on Thursday (and given out as a play by many pay sites), this might be as good of a line as we can get. Wouldn't be shocked if this line moved down (although I don't think that line movement is justified)
Play 4: UNC Greensboro +11.5 Love this play a ton (so now I really scared). This should now either be a no-play for me or a huge bomb play! As I continue to say, the more I hate a "system" or "presystem" play, normally the better it does. Don't know what to tell you here, its a system play and I'm going to play it, but if it wasn't a "presystem" play I'd be playing it for even more (and yes I know that that doesn't make sense)
POSSIBLE PLAYS - you'll want to look deeper at these Bradley +5 If this game gets to +6.5 its a system play.
Northern Illinois +9.5 NIU is playing Ohio
which is currently ranked #179 by Kenpom. If Ohio is #180 or worse when Kenpom updates his ranking, then its a "presystem" play. On a side note, I think we will be able to get +10 or better and I'll be considering this game even if its not a "presystem" play.
South Alabama +6 I really thought this line would (should) be
+8 so this could be in response to South Alabama being a system
play winner on Thursday night given out by the pay sites. If it climbs to +6.5 its a "presystem" play
Louisiana Tech
+6 Fresno St is getting pounded online so this one will be a system play as it might already be +6.5 at some places. Fresno St was so lucky to win (and cover against me) on Thursday so I have no objectivity about this game, I just wish the worst to Fresno St
Cal Riverside +5.5 WTF! I'm
very surprised by this line as I thought it would be around +7. If it
climbs up to +6.5 its a system play (even if it doesn't I'll be considering Riverside myself)
ALMOST PLAYS - this won't be a "presystem" play but its close and I'll probably be on it myself
Montana St +7 They
are playing #173 Weber St. I thought this line would be around +8 so if I'm going to bet it I'll need to get that number (or better).
I'll won't be around as much tonight or tomorrow as its no longer snowing and freezing in San Antonio and I'll be catching up with work with my clients (and the wife isn't happy with the copious amount of time I'm spending on the "presystem"). I'll try to jump in and out and answer as many questions as I can. There are a ton of sharp people posting in this thread and many of them will answer you exactly as I would and will have the answers to your questions as well. Let's help each other out in this thread and let's see if we can make some more money with the "presystem." Results and the link to the original "presystem" thread below:
If you haven't read about the system - here is the link: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=40&sub=100965010
Here is how the "Presystem" has done so far: 11-1 Jan 29th "Pre" System: 6-0 #293 Samford -6.5, LOST by 19 (system win)
#184 Miami (OH) -6.5, LOST by 5 (system win)
#226 Bowling Green -7.5 won by 5 (system win) #259 Portland St. -9, won by 6 (system win) #180 Penn -9, won by 2 in OT (system win) #295 Eastern Illinois -7, LOST by 10 (system win)
Jan 30th "Pre" System: 1-0 #236 Illinois State -6.5, won by 2 in OT (system win)
Jan 31st - NO PLAYS
Feb 1st - NO PLAYS
Feb 2nd "Pre" System 1-0 #203 Southern Illinois -8, LOST by 21 (system win)
Feb 3rd "Pre" System 3-0 #193 Western Kentucky, -10.5, LOST by 4 (system win) #201 Middle Tenn St -12.5, won by 6 (system win) #282 Chattanooga -12.5, won by 9 (system win)
Feb 4th "Pre" System 0-1 #186 Penn -11.5, won by 31 (system loss)
I will post all the results at the bottom of this post. Just wanted to remind you guys again that these are "presystem" plays and I'm still convinced that the "system" plays will be stronger, but because of the 11-1 start I'm personally compelled to bet these plays.
I will also say again that I'd be thrilled with 60+% with either (or both) systems so obviously 11-1 is great but I am very pessimistic about it continuing to go nuts. I'm all about grinding out winning days over and over again to lead to success.
Now with that being said, I believe that the principles of the system will lead to continued success. Now remember the less you "research" these plays the better as they won't look very appealing (although for some reason a few are to me tomorrow - yikes).
We have 4 system plays as of right now. We have 2 or 3 more that I'm confident will become system plays. We also have 1 or 2 more that might be system plays (I'll explain below)
Play 1: SE Missouri St +8.5 I think we get some value at the opening line of 8.5 but I think
if we wait we could get 9 or better Now keep in mind that on matchbook the money has started
to come in on SE Miss St so the juice is already higher on their side.
Your call, I'm probably going to wait to see if I can get 9 or better,
but if it starts to move the other way I'm going to grab it quick.
Play 2: Tenn Martin +9 I
really ticked about this one as I expected the line to be around +11. I don't like
it as much at 9 (obviously) but it is a system play so I will be playing it. If this line was 11 or higher as I expected it to be, it would have been at least a 2-unit play for me (maybe that is a bad sign!) This line should move it but I'm worried since it started lower than expected.
Play 3: Louisiana Monroe +11.5 This
line looks just right and I do like Monroe here (again that actually worries me!). Hopefully you can get
+12 but because it was a system winner on Thursday (and given out as a play by many pay sites), this might be as good of a line as we can get. Wouldn't be shocked if this line moved down (although I don't think that line movement is justified)
Play 4: UNC Greensboro +11.5 Love this play a ton (so now I really scared). This should now either be a no-play for me or a huge bomb play! As I continue to say, the more I hate a "system" or "presystem" play, normally the better it does. Don't know what to tell you here, its a system play and I'm going to play it, but if it wasn't a "presystem" play I'd be playing it for even more (and yes I know that that doesn't make sense)
POSSIBLE PLAYS - you'll want to look deeper at these Bradley +5 If this game gets to +6.5 its a system play.
Northern Illinois +9.5 NIU is playing Ohio
which is currently ranked #179 by Kenpom. If Ohio is #180 or worse when Kenpom updates his ranking, then its a "presystem" play. On a side note, I think we will be able to get +10 or better and I'll be considering this game even if its not a "presystem" play.
South Alabama +6 I really thought this line would (should) be
+8 so this could be in response to South Alabama being a system
play winner on Thursday night given out by the pay sites. If it climbs to +6.5 its a "presystem" play
Louisiana Tech
+6 Fresno St is getting pounded online so this one will be a system play as it might already be +6.5 at some places. Fresno St was so lucky to win (and cover against me) on Thursday so I have no objectivity about this game, I just wish the worst to Fresno St
Cal Riverside +5.5 WTF! I'm
very surprised by this line as I thought it would be around +7. If it
climbs up to +6.5 its a system play (even if it doesn't I'll be considering Riverside myself)
ALMOST PLAYS - this won't be a "presystem" play but its close and I'll probably be on it myself
Montana St +7 They
are playing #173 Weber St. I thought this line would be around +8 so if I'm going to bet it I'll need to get that number (or better).
I'll won't be around as much tonight or tomorrow as its no longer snowing and freezing in San Antonio and I'll be catching up with work with my clients (and the wife isn't happy with the copious amount of time I'm spending on the "presystem"). I'll try to jump in and out and answer as many questions as I can. There are a ton of sharp people posting in this thread and many of them will answer you exactly as I would and will have the answers to your questions as well. Let's help each other out in this thread and let's see if we can make some more money with the "presystem." Results and the link to the original "presystem" thread below:
If you haven't read about the system - here is the link: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=40&sub=100965010
Here is how the "Presystem" has done so far: 11-1 Jan 29th "Pre" System: 6-0 #293 Samford -6.5, LOST by 19 (system win)
#184 Miami (OH) -6.5, LOST by 5 (system win)
#226 Bowling Green -7.5 won by 5 (system win) #259 Portland St. -9, won by 6 (system win) #180 Penn -9, won by 2 in OT (system win) #295 Eastern Illinois -7, LOST by 10 (system win)
Jan 30th "Pre" System: 1-0 #236 Illinois State -6.5, won by 2 in OT (system win)
Jan 31st - NO PLAYS
Feb 1st - NO PLAYS
Feb 2nd "Pre" System 1-0 #203 Southern Illinois -8, LOST by 21 (system win)
Feb 3rd "Pre" System 3-0 #193 Western Kentucky, -10.5, LOST by 4 (system win) #201 Middle Tenn St -12.5, won by 6 (system win) #282 Chattanooga -12.5, won by 9 (system win)
Feb 4th "Pre" System 0-1 #186 Penn -11.5, won by 31 (system loss)
KP, You write too much info for what you receive back. I got hammered on Dartmount. I can see how you come back immediately and move on. Next! Thanks for what you do.
KP, You write too much info for what you receive back. I got hammered on Dartmount. I can see how you come back immediately and move on. Next! Thanks for what you do.
Just for some additional record keeping (and maybe find a loss correlation) what was Dartmouths kenpom number tonight? They had a 21 point loss in their previous game and their overall offensive rankings are as follows:
2010-11 OVERALL RANKINGS
POINTS PER GAME
57.8 342nd OVERALL
REBOUNDS PER GAME
31.3 317th OVERALL
ASSISTS PER GAME
9.6 337th OVERALL
FIELD GOAL PCT
.383 335th OVERALL
I know you're a numbers guy KP and figure if you save this data we can find a correlation on the losing plays
Just for some additional record keeping (and maybe find a loss correlation) what was Dartmouths kenpom number tonight? They had a 21 point loss in their previous game and their overall offensive rankings are as follows:
2010-11 OVERALL RANKINGS
POINTS PER GAME
57.8 342nd OVERALL
REBOUNDS PER GAME
31.3 317th OVERALL
ASSISTS PER GAME
9.6 337th OVERALL
FIELD GOAL PCT
.383 335th OVERALL
I know you're a numbers guy KP and figure if you save this data we can find a correlation on the losing plays
Thanks for spending time with us degenerates. Your wife is a good lady. Hopefully you will have time to post your ufc plays. Sharpstick has a monster play with Vitor.
Thanks for spending time with us degenerates. Your wife is a good lady. Hopefully you will have time to post your ufc plays. Sharpstick has a monster play with Vitor.
Thanks KP, I appreciate everything. I'm biting the bullet come September, I hope I come with up a system that gets me away for a little .
That said, thanks for telling me to stay with continuous money bets and not getting nuts on these. I am 5-1 since I jumped on board and will play the four tomorrow, also possibly a lean.
Thanks KP, I appreciate everything. I'm biting the bullet come September, I hope I come with up a system that gets me away for a little .
That said, thanks for telling me to stay with continuous money bets and not getting nuts on these. I am 5-1 since I jumped on board and will play the four tomorrow, also possibly a lean.
Thanks for spending time with us degenerates. Your wife is a good lady. Hopefully you will have time to post your ufc plays. Sharpstick has a monster play with Vitor.
I'm on Vitor (but small), I really like Griffin and I think almost all the underdogs on the undercard have good shots (so I won't be laying any chalk tomorrow, that much I know for sure).
Thanks for spending time with us degenerates. Your wife is a good lady. Hopefully you will have time to post your ufc plays. Sharpstick has a monster play with Vitor.
I'm on Vitor (but small), I really like Griffin and I think almost all the underdogs on the undercard have good shots (so I won't be laying any chalk tomorrow, that much I know for sure).
Playing the plays and parlayed lightly on the almost plays.
Also got L Tech @ 6.5 and hopped on it as it fits the system.
Took N. Ill at +10 as well.
Only line I got lower than advertised was UL Monroe @ 11, but I took it.
Side note, lightly I took another tease: Nova -1 and Wake +25.5.
Here's to hoping the system produces winning units. I am so happy I came across this thread, I can't thank you enough (5-1!) and I have continued to bet the same units every time.
Playing the plays and parlayed lightly on the almost plays.
Also got L Tech @ 6.5 and hopped on it as it fits the system.
Took N. Ill at +10 as well.
Only line I got lower than advertised was UL Monroe @ 11, but I took it.
Side note, lightly I took another tease: Nova -1 and Wake +25.5.
Here's to hoping the system produces winning units. I am so happy I came across this thread, I can't thank you enough (5-1!) and I have continued to bet the same units every time.
KP, just looked up the updated Kenpom ratings and it looks like N.Illinois / Ohio game will not be a presystem play as Ohio moved from#179 to #178 and the Western Carolina / UNC Greensboro game just made it as W. Carolina moved up 2 spots to #180...enjoy this thread as mostly everyone is positive and motivated to make money all together which is very refreshing which can be attributed to your hard work....thxs and good luck to you and everyone on the plays tomorrow....
KP, just looked up the updated Kenpom ratings and it looks like N.Illinois / Ohio game will not be a presystem play as Ohio moved from#179 to #178 and the Western Carolina / UNC Greensboro game just made it as W. Carolina moved up 2 spots to #180...enjoy this thread as mostly everyone is positive and motivated to make money all together which is very refreshing which can be attributed to your hard work....thxs and good luck to you and everyone on the plays tomorrow....
Dartmouth had a lower kenpom rating than penn. was a no play for me, but keep it up. Your doing great
Almost all the "presystem" and "system" plays will have the underdog with a lower kenpom rating then the favorite (that is why they are the favorite). Thanks for the support.
Dartmouth had a lower kenpom rating than penn. was a no play for me, but keep it up. Your doing great
Almost all the "presystem" and "system" plays will have the underdog with a lower kenpom rating then the favorite (that is why they are the favorite). Thanks for the support.
FYI for everyone - S Illinois Salukis suspended 3 players for tomorrows game against Bradley which according to KineProfesor is already almost a system play. thought???
FYI for everyone - S Illinois Salukis suspended 3 players for tomorrows game against Bradley which according to KineProfesor is already almost a system play. thought???
4/5 of the plays on 5dimes are half a point lower than you posted... seems like an odd discrepancy for opening lines. Is this just a discrepancy between matchbook and 5dimes do you think or should we be getting worried?
4/5 of the plays on 5dimes are half a point lower than you posted... seems like an odd discrepancy for opening lines. Is this just a discrepancy between matchbook and 5dimes do you think or should we be getting worried?
FYI for everyone - S Illinois Salukis suspended 3 players for tomorrows game against Bradley which according to KineProfesor is already almost a system play. thought???
I try to not put too much emphasis on injuries or suspensions unless it involves a point guard that is a primary ballhander. Also, keep in mind that the suspensions were announced before the lines came out so linemakers had that info as well. That being said, losing two starters and three players overall that average more than 13-minutes per game is big. You have SIU coming off of two horrible loses and I'm not sure if losing these players is that big of a deal or might not be addition by subtraction. If I'm not on Bradley I will for sure be on the under
FYI for everyone - S Illinois Salukis suspended 3 players for tomorrows game against Bradley which according to KineProfesor is already almost a system play. thought???
I try to not put too much emphasis on injuries or suspensions unless it involves a point guard that is a primary ballhander. Also, keep in mind that the suspensions were announced before the lines came out so linemakers had that info as well. That being said, losing two starters and three players overall that average more than 13-minutes per game is big. You have SIU coming off of two horrible loses and I'm not sure if losing these players is that big of a deal or might not be addition by subtraction. If I'm not on Bradley I will for sure be on the under
4/5 of the plays on 5dimes are half a point lower than you posted... seems like an odd discrepancy for opening lines. Is this just a discrepancy between matchbook and 5dimes do you think or should we be getting worried?
No worries, I just posted what Matchbook opened the lines at, they get it from a different service than 5dimes, although you might want to wait and see if you get a better line, these plays tend to get lost amongst the giant cards on Saturdays
4/5 of the plays on 5dimes are half a point lower than you posted... seems like an odd discrepancy for opening lines. Is this just a discrepancy between matchbook and 5dimes do you think or should we be getting worried?
No worries, I just posted what Matchbook opened the lines at, they get it from a different service than 5dimes, although you might want to wait and see if you get a better line, these plays tend to get lost amongst the giant cards on Saturdays
No worries, I just posted what Matchbook opened the lines at, they get it from a different service than 5dimes, although you might want to wait and see if you get a better line, these plays tend to get lost amongst the giant cards on Saturdays
Cheers thanks, these threads are making me paranoid :)
No worries, I just posted what Matchbook opened the lines at, they get it from a different service than 5dimes, although you might want to wait and see if you get a better line, these plays tend to get lost amongst the giant cards on Saturdays
Cheers thanks, these threads are making me paranoid :)
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