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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Daviddaman24's Monday "Beat the Trap" Plays
daviddaman24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#1
Posted: 1/9/2011 8:09:17 PM
Sunday: 2-1 +1.8 Units
Season: 10-4 +11.2 Units

All plays are for 2 Units

Marquette -3 (Pretty clear fade of Notre Dame here. They come in #15 in the country and 14-2, yet are getting 3 points against an unranked 11-5 Marquette team? I wonder what the public is going to do with this one? I know what i'll be taking. Marquette -3)

UNC Greensboro +3 (Another obvious one here. Elon comes in at 7-8, while Greensboro is 0-14. Yes 0-14. Yet the line is only 3? You only have to lay 3 points against a team that's 0-14? Clearly Elon wins and covers right? Nope. Gimme Greensboro)

Tail, monitor, or hate away... 

GL to you all




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#2
Posted: 1/9/2011 8:59:47 PM
love it 
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#3
Posted: 1/9/2011 9:08:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by stickman80733:

love it 

Thanks man, not much margin for error tomorrow. It's either 2-0 or a losing day. 
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#4
Posted: 1/9/2011 9:49:25 PM
Been killing ranked teams on the road getting point for years, love MARQ, GL DD
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#5
Posted: 1/9/2011 10:27:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thepigeoncoup33:

Been killing ranked teams on the road getting point for years, love MARQ, GL DD

Thanks man, love that angle as well 
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#6
Posted: 1/9/2011 11:27:19 PM
Just some insight into your trap theory here...last game UNC Greensboro played was against a Chattanooga team that I believe was something like 7-7 at the time.  Just like your so-called "trap" tomorrow night...UNC was getting the exact same number...3 points.  They lost and didn't cover.  Guess it wasn't a trap.  Maybe this time you'll be luckier and the coin will land on heads...

Again...I just don't see how this would be called a trap game?  What number would you expect shitty Elon to be laying on the road? -10?!

And Marquette...yes another unranked team (although they were ranked I believe very recently right?) facing a conference foe at home and laying 3....don't we see this almost every other day?  Unranked teams laying a bucket at home?  The line is right where it should be.  It's not a trap bro.  What should it be to make the average gambler take Marquette?  +8?!

You say that yes the sharper bettors out there will recognize these traps but the average Joe's will not and will take the ranked team.  Got new for you...I'm friends with several guys that run books.  They could care less what the general public does most of the time...they care about what the SHARP bettors do.  The sharp bettors are the ones that bet the big bucks...not the average Joe betting 100.00 a game man.  You could have 75% of the average public bettor backing the ranked team Notre Dame betting a few hundred dollars a pop....and the 25% smart sharp bettors (that you are saying these oddsmakers don't care about when setting the lines) betting 10,000 each....that's the ones they care about.  So why would they set up a so-called trap?  To lose money?

My point is this...
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#7
Posted: 1/9/2011 11:30:08 PM
Nevermind bro...enjoy your games tomorrow. 

I also will be backing Marquette in this spot probably...not because it's a weird line or a trap though.
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#8
Posted: 1/9/2011 11:34:01 PM
David makes some great points, as reasons maybe to NOT TAKE the teams we think are better and should win in these situations... I think Elon should win by 3 or more, but I also don't think Marquette should be -3... I expected to see a line of ND -1 to +1 in this game. I may take the "bait" with Notre Dame here. They;ve been playing great basketball.
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#9
Posted: 1/9/2011 11:34:40 PM
Looks solid bro
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#10
Posted: 1/9/2011 11:34:43 PM
I think I do pretty well fading many garbage teams with small spreads of 3 and less.... On The Road.
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#11
Posted: 1/9/2011 11:46:20 PM
GL david 
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#12
Posted: 1/9/2011 11:49:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by robertgould79:

Just some insight into your trap theory here...last game UNC Greensboro played was against a Chattanooga team that I believe was something like 7-7 at the time.  Just like your so-called "trap" tomorrow night...UNC was getting the exact same number...3 points.  They lost and didn't cover.  Guess it wasn't a trap.  Maybe this time you'll be luckier and the coin will land on heads...

Again...I just don't see how this would be called a trap game?  What number would you expect shitty Elon to be laying on the road? -10?!

And Marquette...yes another unranked team (although they were ranked I believe very recently right?) facing a conference foe at home and laying 3....don't we see this almost every other day?  Unranked teams laying a bucket at home?  The line is right where it should be.  It's not a trap bro.  What should it be to make the average gambler take Marquette?  +8?!

You say that yes the sharper bettors out there will recognize these traps but the average Joe's will not and will take the ranked team.  Got new for you...I'm friends with several guys that run books.  They could care less what the general public does most of the time...they care about what the SHARP bettors do.  The sharp bettors are the ones that bet the big bucks...not the average Joe betting 100.00 a game man.  You could have 75% of the average public bettor backing the ranked team Notre Dame betting a few hundred dollars a pop....and the 25% smart sharp bettors (that you are saying these oddsmakers don't care about when setting the lines) betting 10,000 each....that's the ones they care about.  So why would they set up a so-called trap?  To lose money?

My point is this...

I'm not going to play this game with you everyday man... If you don't like my plays or my theory on what I deem as traps don't come into the thread 
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#13
Posted: 1/9/2011 11:50:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PurduePride2206:

GL david 

Thanks bud 
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#14
Posted: 1/9/2011 11:59:47 PM
  Keep up the good work man!!!  I get a lot of slack on my analysis of my Runnin Rebels. It is amazing that people from Rhode Island and Wyoming could could possibly have better insight but they always seem to prove me wrong Oh well!!!   I  enjoy your thread man, gives me something to think about besides what looks obvious to the average bettor, which is me a lot of times!!!   
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#15
Posted: 1/10/2011 12:07:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by drifter44:

  Keep up the good work man!!!  I get a lot of slack on my analysis of my Runnin Rebels. It is amazing that people from Rhode Island and Wyoming could could possibly have better insight but they always seem to prove me wrong Oh well!!!   I  enjoy your thread man, gives me something to think about besides what looks obvious to the average bettor, which is me a lot of times!!!   

Appreciate it man thanks. That's what i'm here for, to try and offer something that is useful to me and could be helpful to others. It's a shame some people just can't take it for what it is. 
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#16
Posted: 1/10/2011 9:31:43 AM
new week, new run!! nice work DDM!!
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#17
Posted: 1/10/2011 9:36:50 AM
I'm hoping the Marquette line moves to -2 by tonight
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#18
Posted: 1/10/2011 10:01:06 AM
UNCG is +3.5 now
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#19
Posted: 1/10/2011 10:42:23 AM
I like the angles but correct me if I am wrong, are these not the plays we should wait until later when the public pounds the "obvious side"... Greensboro scares me no doubt would scare anyone in their right mind but I love Marquette in this spot, I just see the line coming down a bit before game time, I would take -2.5 over 3 any day....
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#20
Posted: 1/10/2011 10:43:18 AM
With you on Marquettt. Hoping to get -2 at some point today. Keep on raking it in David.
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#21
Posted: 1/10/2011 10:56:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jrhdgolf9:

I like the angles but correct me if I am wrong, are these not the plays we should wait until later when the public pounds the "obvious side"... Greensboro scares me no doubt would scare anyone in their right mind but I love Marquette in this spot, I just see the line coming down a bit before game time, I would take -2.5 over 3 any day....

It can go either way, yesterday all 3 games I played I got a better line the night before (when I posted) then where the game actually closed. Yes the public pounded the hell out of Dayton but the line still moved towards U Mass. Reverse line movement. 
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#22
Posted: 1/10/2011 11:06:14 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by robertgould79:

Just some insight into your trap theory here...last game UNC Greensboro played was against a Chattanooga team that I believe was something like 7-7 at the time.  Just like your so-called "trap" tomorrow night...UNC was getting the exact same number...3 points.  They lost and didn't cover.  Guess it wasn't a trap.  Maybe this time you'll be luckier and the coin will land on heads...

Again...I just don't see how this would be called a trap game?  What number would you expect shitty Elon to be laying on the road? -10?!

And Marquette...yes another unranked team (although they were ranked I believe very recently right?) facing a conference foe at home and laying 3....don't we see this almost every other day?  Unranked teams laying a bucket at home?  The line is right where it should be.  It's not a trap bro.  What should it be to make the average gambler take Marquette?  +8?!

You say that yes the sharper bettors out there will recognize these traps but the average Joe's will not and will take the ranked team.  Got new for you...I'm friends with several guys that run books.  They could care less what the general public does most of the time...they care about what the SHARP bettors do.  The sharp bettors are the ones that bet the big bucks...not the average Joe betting 100.00 a game man.  You could have 75% of the average public bettor backing the ranked team Notre Dame betting a few hundred dollars a pop....and the 25% smart sharp bettors (that you are saying these oddsmakers don't care about when setting the lines) betting 10,000 each....that's the ones they care about.  So why would they set up a so-called trap?  To lose money?

My point is this...

Go start your own thread douche bag.  Nobody in here gives a garbage what you think.  Enjoy sitting on a spoon with Elon tonight.

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#23
Posted: 1/10/2011 11:30:26 AM
Good luck David. 
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#24
Posted: 1/10/2011 11:38:43 AM
thnx for pix last couple days..... and bol today daman24
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#25
Posted: 1/10/2011 12:21:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Rocketman17:

Go start your own thread douche bag.  Nobody in here gives a garbage what you think.  Enjoy sitting on a spoon with Elon tonight.

With all the garbage going on in the world the internet gives guys like this some pretty big balls to be a even bigger jerk than the one he complains about. Sad.

BOL on your plays. My only thing I see in the Marquette/ND game is that the visting team is 4-1 ATS recently. The line does not though jump out at as a "trap" but not relevant since it does daviddaman24's eyes. I lean towards Marquette too.

Again, BOL!!!

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