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Daviddaman24's Sunday "Beat the Trap" Plays

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Posted: #1
Saturday: 4-2 +3.6 Units
Season: 8-3 +9.4 Units

If you've been following the last 3 days (since I started posting these types of plays) you know the drill. Take lines that seem too good to be true and fade them. All plays are for 2 units. Here we go...

U Mass +2.5 (Here we've got a well known Dayton team that comes in at 13-3, facing a U Mass team whose 8-5. Yes it's a home game for U Mass but that line seems way to easy for people to get on Dayton right? Not for me. Take U Mass

Valparaiso +1 (Another fade of Cleveland State as I did a few days against Butler. 15-2 team coming in to face an 11-5 Valpo squad. Vegas only making you lay a single point to take the 15-2. Have to take em right? Wrong. Play is Valpo

Evansville +2.5 (Here is another one where vegas casts the bait with very small chalk and wants you to jump on it. Creighton sits at 11-5 while Evansville is a middle of road 7-7. Creighton should have no problem covering such a small number right? Nope. Take Evansville. 

That will likely be it for tomorrow. GL to you all tomorrow. 
 
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Posted: #2
 keep up great work buddy
 
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Quote Originally Posted by stickman80733:

 keep up great work buddy

Thanks bud... Hope tomorrow is another profitable day
 
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Love these threads as you raise many of the same points I consider when capping games.

I was very surprised to see Minnesota catching 15.5 @ Ohio State and conventional wisdom would seem to indicate that the public will be all over the Gophers getting such a big number. Thoughts on this one?

 
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I have to take you seriously from now on David
 
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Posted: #7
Loving it...
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

Love these threads as you raise many of the same points I consider when capping games.

I was very surprised to see Minnesota catching 15.5 @ Ohio State and conventional wisdom would seem to indicate that the public will be all over the Gophers getting such a big number. Thoughts on this one?


Vegas will never give the public any favors on teams ranked as highly as Ohio State is. Many gamblers (public/square types) love betting highly ranked teams especially when A. They are at home, and B. They are red hot. Ohio State has both of those things in their favor right now. Given all that I think the line is about where it should be. 
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by hieunguyen:

I have to take you seriously from now on David

Hah, thanks 
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by daviddaman24:


Vegas will never give the public any favors on teams ranked as highly as Ohio State is. Many gamblers (public/square types) love betting highly ranked teams especially when A. They are at home, and B. They are red hot. Ohio State has both of those things in their favor right now. Given all that I think the line is about where it should be. 

Forgot to mention Minnesota is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games. I don't think the public will be too interested in going against red hot Ohio State with numbers like that. 
 
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Posted: #11
Davidaman24...I think you are severely downplaying the advantage of playing at home in college basketball my man.  I've been handicapping for years and have learned just how hard it is for any team to play on the road in this sport.  I've been reading you posts the last couple days and I don't agree at all with some of your so-called "traps".  Like today...Oklahoma State opening as a 1 point favorite at home was right where the line should have been...wasn't a trap.  They own teams in that building...especially Kansas State.  Yeah Kansas was ranked but you can basically wipe your ass with these rankings each week as any seasoned handicapper knows they don't mean jack.  Records are not a good indicator of how good a team is either..it is somewhat, but it is far from everything.  You may think a 7-10 team only getting a bucket or two at home against a 11-7 team is a "trap"...but that's not always the case.  Who has this 7-7 team played?  How many home games?  Strength of schedule?  Past games between the two?  Injuries?

My point...in a totally friendly manner...I've been there and done this whole "trap game" thing and tried picking out the games that seemed totally bizarre to me each and every day.  And yes...some hit at first and I thought I was really onto something lol.  The bottom-line...on any given day you will find a whole card worth of so-called "trap" games worth maybe playing in your eyes...but I can guarantee you playing this many games in 1 day will NOT get you far from a bankroll standpoint.  You will NEVER meet a successful sports gambler who bets multiple games each and every day.

My whole point is that I really think the term "trap" game is used way too loosely on this forum and it's almost comical at times.  I understand covers.com is a place for amateur gamblers betting small and having fun...but it's getting a bit crazy.  The few guys with experience taking the actual time to visit covers.com must laugh their asses off.  I really think it's a great thing to see you starting to think about games in this respect and I think you are on the right track with your school of thought...you've really learned lesson number 1 in gambling, maybe the most important: Oddsmakers don't give money away....if it seems too easy it probably is.  However, I once again think you are underestimating the impact of teams playing at home and I think you'd agree as almost all your picks thus far have been for the home team either favored vs. ranked team or catching a few points.

Keep up the good handicapping and learning and good luck!
 
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Nice posts..... I still see alot of teams at Home get BURIED, and alot of CRAP teams AT HOME, somehow WIN (AND cover)........It is, what it is.................... I would think Cleve St is better than Valpo, and would take them, but I acutally think Valpo at Home may win the game..... Also I do like Creighton tomorrow against Evansville because I consider them a far superior team... this may well be a Trap game as you say, and I could see Evansville losing by 1 or 2 only and covering, but I'm still betting Creighton, the better team............... love the thread, BOL
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by robertgould79:

Davidaman24...I think you are severely downplaying the advantage of playing at home in college basketball my man.  I've been handicapping for years and have learned just how hard it is for any team to play on the road in this sport.  I've been reading you posts the last couple days and I don't agree at all with some of your so-called "traps".  Like today...Oklahoma State opening as a 1 point favorite at home was right where the line should have been...wasn't a trap.  They own teams in that building...especially Kansas State.  Yeah Kansas was ranked but you can basically wipe your ass with these rankings each week as any seasoned handicapper knows they don't mean jack.  Records are not a good indicator of how good a team is either..it is somewhat, but it is far from everything.  You may think a 7-10 team only getting a bucket or two at home against a 11-7 team is a "trap"...but that's not always the case.  Who has this 7-7 team played?  How many home games?  Strength of schedule?  Past games between the two?  Injuries?

My point...in a totally friendly manner...I've been there and done this whole "trap game" thing and tried picking out the games that seemed totally bizarre to me each and every day.  And yes...some hit at first and I thought I was really onto something lol.  The bottom-line...on any given day you will find a whole card worth of so-called "trap" games worth maybe playing in your eyes...but I can guarantee you playing this many games in 1 day will NOT get you far from a bankroll standpoint.  You will NEVER meet a successful sports gambler who bets multiple games each and every day.

My whole point is that I really think the term "trap" game is used way too loosely on this forum and it's almost comical at times.  I understand covers.com is a place for amateur gamblers betting small and having fun...but it's getting a bit crazy.  The few guys with experience taking the actual time to visit covers.com must laugh their asses off.  I really think it's a great thing to see you starting to think about games in this respect and I think you are on the right track with your school of thought...you've really learned lesson number 1 in gambling, maybe the most important: Oddsmakers don't give money away....if it seems too easy it probably is.  However, I once again think you are underestimating the impact of teams playing at home and I think you'd agree as almost all your picks thus far have been for the home team either favored vs. ranked team or catching a few points.

Keep up the good handicapping and learning and good luck!

Appreciate the insight and support. Thanks
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by JDubs800:

Nice posts..... I still see alot of teams at Home get BURIED, and alot of CRAP teams AT HOME, somehow WIN (AND cover)........It is, what it is.................... I would think Cleve St is better than Valpo, and would take them, but I acutally think Valpo at Home may win the game..... Also I do like Creighton tomorrow against Evansville because I consider them a far superior team... this may well be a Trap game as you say, and I could see Evansville losing by 1 or 2 only and covering, but I'm still betting Creighton, the better team............... love the thread, BOL

Thanks 
 
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Umass is a WRECK right now, Dayton is one of my favorite plays today.  UConn's PG situation is a mess. 

I like your system and agree with the premise, but I think you underthink too much and it's a little too simplistic.  You aren't doing any real 'capping' at all?

Strictly "what line looks off to me without considering any factors, bet the opposite way of the obvious choice"...not on board with that.

BOL to you though, except on UMass haha
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by robertgould79:

Davidaman24...I think you are severely downplaying the advantage of playing at home in college basketball my man.  I've been handicapping for years and have learned just how hard it is for any team to play on the road in this sport.  I've been reading you posts the last couple days and I don't agree at all with some of your so-called "traps".  Like today...Oklahoma State opening as a 1 point favorite at home was right where the line should have been...wasn't a trap.  They own teams in that building...especially Kansas State.  Yeah Kansas was ranked but you can basically wipe your ass with these rankings each week as any seasoned handicapper knows they don't mean jack.  Records are not a good indicator of how good a team is either..it is somewhat, but it is far from everything.  You may think a 7-10 team only getting a bucket or two at home against a 11-7 team is a "trap"...but that's not always the case.  Who has this 7-7 team played?  How many home games?  Strength of schedule?  Past games between the two?  Injuries?

My point...in a totally friendly manner...I've been there and done this whole "trap game" thing and tried picking out the games that seemed totally bizarre to me each and every day.  And yes...some hit at first and I thought I was really onto something lol.  The bottom-line...on any given day you will find a whole card worth of so-called "trap" games worth maybe playing in your eyes...but I can guarantee you playing this many games in 1 day will NOT get you far from a bankroll standpoint.  You will NEVER meet a successful sports gambler who bets multiple games each and every day.

My whole point is that I really think the term "trap" game is used way too loosely on this forum and it's almost comical at times.  I understand covers.com is a place for amateur gamblers betting small and having fun...but it's getting a bit crazy.  The few guys with experience taking the actual time to visit covers.com must laugh their asses off.  I really think it's a great thing to see you starting to think about games in this respect and I think you are on the right track with your school of thought...you've really learned lesson number 1 in gambling, maybe the most important: Oddsmakers don't give money away....if it seems too easy it probably is.  However, I once again think you are underestimating the impact of teams playing at home and I think you'd agree as almost all your picks thus far have been for the home team either favored vs. ranked team or catching a few points.

Keep up the good handicapping and learning and good luck!

Also to address a few of your other points. I am no way downplaying the importance of playing at home. You said yourself most of my plays have been on home teams. So you contradicted yourself a bit there. Second maybe to you or other higher level gamblers that Oklahoma State/Kansas State line was right where it should be. However to many joe public gamblers that spread was way off which was reflected by the heavy amount of public money that came in on Kansas State. Just because a line looks accurate to you doesn't mean it looks accurate to the masses, and that's who i'm looking to fade here. The average fan/casual gambler who will fall right into these "traps" I feel like you might be looking a little too deep into what i'm doing here. I'm just keeping it simple. Basically it's like this... what lines will jump out as easy covers to an average/below average gambler? Just take those and go the opposite of what public perception will be. Nothing more nothing less. "Trap" isn't a universal term. A line may not trap you, but it sure as heck can trap a nice chunk of the public 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by jjj2121:

Umass is a WRECK right now, Dayton is one of my favorite plays today.  UConn's PG situation is a mess. 

I like your system and agree with the premise, but I think you underthink too much and it's a little too simplistic.  You aren't doing any real 'capping' at all?

Strictly "what line looks off to me without considering any factors, bet the opposite way of the obvious choice"...not on board with that.

BOL to you though, except on UMass haha

It's not for everyone, it's just a theory I like. GL to you with your plays
 
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Quote Originally Posted by daviddaman24:


It's not for everyone, it's just a theory I like. GL to you with your plays

To add to the last post, it can be a little simplistic but where is it said simplistic can't win? You don't need complicated number crunching formulas or to cap the hell out of every game in order to achieve success. At the end of the day there's only so much capping one can do anyways. If a teams star SG has a fight with a girlfriend and his head isn't in the game he might go shoot 5-18 from the field. How can you cap that? Or if a stud PF goes out and is plagued with foul trouble the whole game and only plays 21 minutes? 

I'm certainly not saying capping game is useless but there's only so much you can factor. More capping doesn't necessarily equal better results. There is such a thing as over capping and over thinking a game. Keep it simple, we aren't astronauts or anything. We're betting on basketball games played by kids 18-22 years old. 
 
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Posted: #19
A prime example of this is the indy game yesterday' and I got a feeling today it will be with balt. all the money was on  new orleans yesterday too. Most of the public thought seattle or the jets had a chance.
 
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Posted: #20
GL david, nice run you got 
 
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GL AND RIDE WHAT WORKS FOR YA
 
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Posted: #22
24-18 U Mass late in the 1st half... 
 
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U Mass +2.5 
Valparaiso -1 

2-0 today, 10-3 Overall.... 

and on we go... 
 
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Posted: #24
Not to rub anything in, but this Dayton/U Mass game was exactly what i'm talking about. Most of the board looked at the line thought it was too good to be true and took Dayton. What do you know U Mass wins. Happens ALL the time. 
 
 
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thanks for more winners
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