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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Big East EXPERT check out these numbers
derekbauer send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
derekbauer
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#1
Posted: 1/4/2011 5:40:49 PM

Not New to covers but new to posting hopefully we can win some money.

I like 2 plays in the big east tonite and a few in the NBA.

I use a 50 dollar/unit betting system and rarely make plays over 2 units unless i consider it a "lock".  Big east basketball is my specialty but i have been having recent success in the NBA so well see what we can do tonite.

Pitt -5.5 @ Providence for 2 units.

Under Jamie Dixon pitt is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in its first big east road game of the year. After playing a top 10 team (uconn was last game) they are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in the last 3 seasons. They are coming off a week rest and should be fresh and ready to go.

Providence is 4-7 ATS and 1-10 SU against top 10 teams in the past 3 seasons even though its lone win was against Pitt. However they are 0-3 ATS in theyre last 3 home games against these teams. If Pitt can contain Marshon Brooks like they did Kemba Walker, Providence is 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS when Brooks shoots less than 50 percent from the field. The combined record of teams Providence has beaten at home is 48-66 with its "marquee" win against Rhode Island who lost by 25 to Florida last night.

 

Notre Dame -4 or -4.5 @ Uconn for 1 unit.

Notre Dame has won 12 straight home games including a big win against GTOWN a few days ago. They are 3-1 ATS at home this season. In the last 3 years they are 6-3 SU and 6-3 ATS against ranked teams at home. Home team is 7-3 ATS in last 10 meetings(thank you covers).

Last season Uconn was 5-4 ATS in road big east games but only 2-7 SU. This is only their second road game of the year and they were pounded against pittsburgh a week ago then played poorly at home against South Florida in an overtime win. It helps that Carleton Scott is out for ND but i think the line being only 4 makes up for that. I have watched Uconn play 5 or 6 times and wasn't really impressed with them minus Kemba Walker. If Notre Dame can keep him under 40 points they will cover this game.

NBA

 

Memphis +1 vs Oklahoma City    for 1 unit on memphis.

This is a well debated game on covers here today and i am going to side with the home team in this one. Memphis has been decent at home and someone posted an amazing stat that teams beating LAL are 9-1 ATS in their next game. OKC is coming off of a thumping against San Antonio and although they are an amazing 9-1 ATS following a road loss they are bound to have a let down. This is the perfect spot.. My line on this game was memphis -3 or -4 before it came out and i was shocked to see it open at OKC -2. Its a small play so im not risking the house on it but i like the home team in this creepy matchup.

 

Atlanta Hawks -5 @ Sacramento         for 1 unit.

Not to much to say on this one. More of a gut feeling than much statistical analysis. Atlanta is a much better team all around then Sacramento and should dominate this game on paper. Sacramento was 3-6 ATS as a home dog this year and should be 3-7 but Phoenix collapsed in the last 4 minutes and blew a 13 point lead on a -5 line. Sometimes it seems to easy and u think vegas is tricking you. Im calling your bluff vegas go with Atlanta.

 

So my card for the day is

Pitt -5.5   2 units

Notre Dame -4 1 unit

Atlanta -5 1 unit

Memphis +1 1 unit.

 

 

GL All.

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derekbauer send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
derekbauer
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#2
Posted: 1/4/2011 6:01:20 PM

Also leaning towards Portland +3 @ Dallas but going to stay away

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Jarrett75 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Jarrett75
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Location: United States
#3
Posted: 1/4/2011 6:09:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by derekbauer:

Not New to covers but new to posting hopefully we can win some money.

I like 2 plays in the big east tonite and a few in the NBA.

I use a 50 dollar/unit betting system and rarely make plays over 2 units unless i consider it a "lock".  Big east basketball is my specialty but i have been having recent success in the NBA so well see what we can do tonite.

Pitt -5.5 @ Providence for 2 units.

Under Jamie Dixon pitt is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in its first big east road game of the year. After playing a top 10 team (uconn was last game) they are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in the last 3 seasons. They are coming off a week rest and should be fresh and ready to go.

Providence is 4-7 ATS and 1-10 SU against top 10 teams in the past 3 seasons even though its lone win was against Pitt. However they are 0-3 ATS in theyre last 3 home games against these teams. If Pitt can contain Marshon Brooks like they did Kemba Walker, Providence is 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS when Brooks shoots less than 50 percent from the field. The combined record of teams Providence has beaten at home is 48-66 with its "marquee" win against Rhode Island who lost by 25 to Florida last night.

 

Notre Dame -4 or -4.5 @ Uconn for 1 unit.

Notre Dame has won 12 straight home games including a big win against GTOWN a few days ago. They are 3-1 ATS at home this season. In the last 3 years they are 6-3 SU and 6-3 ATS against ranked teams at home. Home team is 7-3 ATS in last 10 meetings(thank you covers).

Last season Uconn was 5-4 ATS in road big east games but only 2-7 SU. This is only their second road game of the year and they were pounded against pittsburgh a week ago then played poorly at home against South Florida in an overtime win. It helps that Carleton Scott is out for ND but i think the line being only 4 makes up for that. I have watched Uconn play 5 or 6 times and wasn't really impressed with them minus Kemba Walker. If Notre Dame can keep him under 40 points they will cover this game.

NBA

 

Memphis +1 vs Oklahoma City    for 1 unit on memphis.

This is a well debated game on covers here today and i am going to side with the home team in this one. Memphis has been decent at home and someone posted an amazing stat that teams beating LAL are 9-1 ATS in their next game. OKC is coming off of a thumping against San Antonio and although they are an amazing 9-1 ATS following a road loss they are bound to have a let down. This is the perfect spot.. My line on this game was memphis -3 or -4 before it came out and i was shocked to see it open at OKC -2. Its a small play so im not risking the house on it but i like the home team in this creepy matchup.

 

Atlanta Hawks -5 @ Sacramento         for 1 unit.

Not to much to say on this one. More of a gut feeling than much statistical analysis. Atlanta is a much better team all around then Sacramento and should dominate this game on paper. Sacramento was 3-6 ATS as a home dog this year and should be 3-7 but Phoenix collapsed in the last 4 minutes and blew a 13 point lead on a -5 line. Sometimes it seems to easy and u think vegas is tricking you. Im calling your bluff vegas go with Atlanta.

 

So my card for the day is

Pitt -5.5   2 units

Notre Dame -4 1 unit

Atlanta -5 1 unit

Memphis +1 1 unit.

 

 

GL All.



Game is at Notre Dame just to let ya know.
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absolutea6 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
absolutea6
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#4
Posted: 1/4/2011 6:14:43 PM

Great Write up. 

What are your feelings on the 1st half under 70 play in the Pitt/Prov game?

1st true road game for Pitt and they could come out a bit cold from a shooting standpoint. 

(Gibbs dropped 25, 6-9 from three land on them last year and I think Prov will be keying on him tonight as one of Pitt's only true Offensive threats.)

Pitt's inconsistent O + Pitt's consistent D = 1st Half under 70?

Any feedback would be much appreciated.

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derekbauer send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
derekbauer
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#5
Posted: 1/4/2011 6:42:26 PM

Sorry it was a mistype obviously game is at home hence my home statistics for notre dame.

 

Well absolute i have to agree but not because pitt is going to come out cold but because they have solid defense. If they run the Dixon offense they usually take 25 to 30 seconds off each shot clock and it would take amazing shooting for both teams to combine for 70 points. I like Pitt 31-29 in the FH.

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absolutea6 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
absolutea6
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#6
Posted: 1/4/2011 6:51:58 PM

Cheers

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JBGash send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#7
Posted: 1/4/2011 6:54:45 PM
UConn has lost their one and only road game this year by 15 at Pitt I think it was.  ND is the call.  Good Luck.
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derekbauer send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
derekbauer
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#8
Posted: 1/4/2011 7:50:45 PM

Under in the fhalf hope you were on it Absolute. Pitt is looking good well see what happens here.

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derekbauer send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
derekbauer
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#9
Posted: 1/4/2011 9:18:08 PM
Out to a great start at 0-2 both pitt and notre dame blowing double digit leads with less than 5 minutes to play.
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TRAIN69
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TRAIN69
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#10
Posted: 1/4/2011 9:25:35 PM
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