Posted:
#1
November 12-6 +5.5 units
December 11-5 +5.4 units; 2-unit plays: 1-0
Hey guys, nice 2-unit winner yesterday (I now realize it was Monday and not Tuesday!) and I have another 2-unit play tonight.
Before I get to the breakdown of the game I wanted to mention that we are now at the point of the season that teams have an identity (barring injuries) and we need to now use their season-long stats to project how they these games will play out. Take the game from yesterday, there was chatter on the board for taking the over in the Centenary/Wyoming game, the theory being Centenary can surely score over 50 points and Wyoming should put up a ton of points themselves. But if you looked at the season-long stats you would see that Centenary is THE worst offensive team in the country and at the end of a brutal road trip AND Wyoming has been especially solid on DEFENSE at home this season. You don't want to put yourself in the position of needing one (or both) teams to perform SIGNIFICANTLY better (or worse) than their stats indicate they would. Taking the over in the Centenary/Wyoming game yesterday would be an example of that. You need Centenary to perform WELL ABOVE their expected offensive output AND you need Wyoming to perform WELL BELOW their expected defensive output. Does that mean that game would have never went over? Of course not, but if you make all your bets for the rest of this month and into January betting WITH (and not against) the expected performance of one (or hopefully both) teams, I'm confident you will have a positive month of college gambling. It sounds simple, but I bet you can look back at some of your wagers (as can I) and see that you backed a side or total that you needed one (or both) teams to perform WELL ABOVE OR BELOW expectations (projections).
This brings me to today's play I'm on UNDER 128 in the Drake/Dartmouth game for 2-units and here are a few reasons why:
Dartmouth is one of the 20 worst offensive teams in the country. Here are their road scores this season: 52 at Providence, 57 at Hartford, 59 at Loyola Maryland, 53 at Vermont, 61 at St. Francis and 42 at Iowa State two nights ago. This is Dartmount's third straight road game in 7 days and is their last game before Christmas break. Dartmount also plays a slow(er) tempo of basketball and is actually almost 100 spots better defensive than their offensive ranking. Dartmount has played a Strength of Schedule of opponent's defense of 240th in the country. Tonight's opponent Drake is ranked 202 in defensive efficiency so its actually a slightly tougher defensive matchup than they normally go against.
Over the course of the last four weeks, Drake has lost two of its top offensive contributors. Since losing those players they have actually played better on the defensive end and have seen a slight drop in production offensively. On the season, Drake has scored 60 or less in 5 of their 9 games. Drake has only played three other teams who are ranked as low as Dartmount and in two of those three games were VERY low-scoring (58-54 against Eastern Michigan, 20 points under the total AND 60-46 against Texas Southern) Lets see if we can find any similarities between Eastern Michigan, Texas Southern and Drake's opponent tonight Dartmouth:
Texas Southern: Offensive Efficiency - 318th, Pace - 66.5, DI - 255
Eastn Michigan: Offensive Efficiency - 323rd, Pace - 68.6, DI - 179
Dartmouth: Offensive Efficiency - 326th, Pace - 66.8, DI - 237
As we can see, all three of these teams are horrific offensively, play at or below an average pace, and all three are SIGNIFICANTLY better on defense. Remember that the total for the Texas Southern game fell on 106, the Eastern Michigan game fell on 112, and now we have a posted total of 128 despite the fact that Drake has two injuries to two major offensive contributors.
A couple of other factors that I like include: Drake has another home game in two days, that normally effects how many minutes the starters play and the head coach has to keep that in mind and keep his team focused, especially defensively.
Both of these two teams are two of the worst in the country in rebounding (especially offensive rebounding) so this should keep scoring down as well.
Both of these teams get to the free throw line WELL BELOW the ncaa average and Drake (the team that should be ahead) is shooting less than 67% from the strip.
Both teams also are below the NCAA average in assist to turnover ratio which is a strong indicator of a low scoring game as well.
I'm I guaranteeing that this game goes under? Absolutely not, Drake could shoot the lights out and/or Dartmouth could have packed it in and decide not to compete defensively etc. But again, we are betting that one (or both) of these teams will perform around their projected expectations, if that is the case this game should fall 8-12 points under the total. As I always say, if we can get our money bet in situations like this all the time, we should certainly have a profitable college basketball betting season. Good luck with whatever you decide, we are all in this together.
Under 128 Drake/Dartmouth for 2-unit on Matchbook
*I would feel comfortable playing this number all the way down to 126, but as always I want every possible point when I'm on an under, especially in a game where there could be late game fouling.
December 11-5 +5.4 units; 2-unit plays: 1-0
Hey guys, nice 2-unit winner yesterday (I now realize it was Monday and not Tuesday!) and I have another 2-unit play tonight.
Before I get to the breakdown of the game I wanted to mention that we are now at the point of the season that teams have an identity (barring injuries) and we need to now use their season-long stats to project how they these games will play out. Take the game from yesterday, there was chatter on the board for taking the over in the Centenary/Wyoming game, the theory being Centenary can surely score over 50 points and Wyoming should put up a ton of points themselves. But if you looked at the season-long stats you would see that Centenary is THE worst offensive team in the country and at the end of a brutal road trip AND Wyoming has been especially solid on DEFENSE at home this season. You don't want to put yourself in the position of needing one (or both) teams to perform SIGNIFICANTLY better (or worse) than their stats indicate they would. Taking the over in the Centenary/Wyoming game yesterday would be an example of that. You need Centenary to perform WELL ABOVE their expected offensive output AND you need Wyoming to perform WELL BELOW their expected defensive output. Does that mean that game would have never went over? Of course not, but if you make all your bets for the rest of this month and into January betting WITH (and not against) the expected performance of one (or hopefully both) teams, I'm confident you will have a positive month of college gambling. It sounds simple, but I bet you can look back at some of your wagers (as can I) and see that you backed a side or total that you needed one (or both) teams to perform WELL ABOVE OR BELOW expectations (projections).
This brings me to today's play I'm on UNDER 128 in the Drake/Dartmouth game for 2-units and here are a few reasons why:
Dartmouth is one of the 20 worst offensive teams in the country. Here are their road scores this season: 52 at Providence, 57 at Hartford, 59 at Loyola Maryland, 53 at Vermont, 61 at St. Francis and 42 at Iowa State two nights ago. This is Dartmount's third straight road game in 7 days and is their last game before Christmas break. Dartmount also plays a slow(er) tempo of basketball and is actually almost 100 spots better defensive than their offensive ranking. Dartmount has played a Strength of Schedule of opponent's defense of 240th in the country. Tonight's opponent Drake is ranked 202 in defensive efficiency so its actually a slightly tougher defensive matchup than they normally go against.
Over the course of the last four weeks, Drake has lost two of its top offensive contributors. Since losing those players they have actually played better on the defensive end and have seen a slight drop in production offensively. On the season, Drake has scored 60 or less in 5 of their 9 games. Drake has only played three other teams who are ranked as low as Dartmount and in two of those three games were VERY low-scoring (58-54 against Eastern Michigan, 20 points under the total AND 60-46 against Texas Southern) Lets see if we can find any similarities between Eastern Michigan, Texas Southern and Drake's opponent tonight Dartmouth:
Texas Southern: Offensive Efficiency - 318th, Pace - 66.5, DI - 255
Eastn Michigan: Offensive Efficiency - 323rd, Pace - 68.6, DI - 179
Dartmouth: Offensive Efficiency - 326th, Pace - 66.8, DI - 237
As we can see, all three of these teams are horrific offensively, play at or below an average pace, and all three are SIGNIFICANTLY better on defense. Remember that the total for the Texas Southern game fell on 106, the Eastern Michigan game fell on 112, and now we have a posted total of 128 despite the fact that Drake has two injuries to two major offensive contributors.
A couple of other factors that I like include: Drake has another home game in two days, that normally effects how many minutes the starters play and the head coach has to keep that in mind and keep his team focused, especially defensively.
Both of these two teams are two of the worst in the country in rebounding (especially offensive rebounding) so this should keep scoring down as well.
Both of these teams get to the free throw line WELL BELOW the ncaa average and Drake (the team that should be ahead) is shooting less than 67% from the strip.
Both teams also are below the NCAA average in assist to turnover ratio which is a strong indicator of a low scoring game as well.
I'm I guaranteeing that this game goes under? Absolutely not, Drake could shoot the lights out and/or Dartmouth could have packed it in and decide not to compete defensively etc. But again, we are betting that one (or both) of these teams will perform around their projected expectations, if that is the case this game should fall 8-12 points under the total. As I always say, if we can get our money bet in situations like this all the time, we should certainly have a profitable college basketball betting season. Good luck with whatever you decide, we are all in this together.
Under 128 Drake/Dartmouth for 2-unit on Matchbook
*I would feel comfortable playing this number all the way down to 126, but as always I want every possible point when I'm on an under, especially in a game where there could be late game fouling.
0
....Thank You Professor....with the rain and cold out here in Vegas, ive been out of the element for awhile....im back and on board with this under....all the best
KP
nice hit yesterday, may have to join you today...cant top that info 
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