Posted:
#1
YTD: 15-9 (2-0 2-unit plays) +7.5 units
Cooling off a bit so tread carefully (no write-ups yesterday but lost two small bets recorded in Billysticks thread). My big struggle is now that my semester is over I have much more time to study the games and have many more leans, the last few days I haven't chosen the correct ones to go with as my leans have been about 75% but I myself went 0-3 the last two days. My choices are: reduce my unit and play more games when I have leans or continue doing what I'm doing only study a handful of games and only bet my strongest lean. Good news is that it is a small, large favorite card and I don't see much that catches my eye. I will be around if anyone wants to discuss, going to try this write-up bullet style and possibly a bit less wordy (we will see).
Today a really like UNDER 141 Georgia Southern @ Evansville, my reasons for liking this under include:
* Evansville has had 8 days off including 3 days completely off from practice during finals week and I expect their offensive execution to be influenced negatively.
* Evansville also lost their starting point guard and this will be their first game without him, three freshman are going to share his minutes, this is another factor that I believe will cause them to be below average offensively
* Evansville spent the days they did practice on ball-handling, passes, and being more disciplined. While I don't believe this will make-up for the long layoff and injury, it leads me to believe that they are attempting to be more patient on offense and will possibly play a slower tempo for this game (as this has been a successful strategy for Georgia Southern's last three opponents)
* Kenpow has this game capped at Evansville 72-61 (and I believe that doesn't account for the injury which should bump down their team total), I like having those extra 8-points in this one.
* Evansville ranks 278 in offensive efficiency and Georgia Southern ranks 283 and while both play a slightly above average tempo, Georgia Southern last three games have had 57,61,59 possessions (average # of possessions is just under 69) so they have conformed to their opponents tempo and as I stated I believe Evansville will have a slower tempo tonight.
* Both of these teams has the ability to stink it up offensively, Evansville has scored 61 or less in four of its last five games and Georgia Southern has 59 or less in its last four games (Both teams are shooting 41% from the field in their last five). If either team just scores 60, I find it very hard to believe that other erupts for over 81.
* Evansville also only averages 3 made 3-point shots a game making the probability of them going off from behind the arc very low and Georgia Southern is a below-average free-throw shooting team and gets to the line less than 18 times a game. Both nice factors for under backers in this one
This is a combination numbers (offensive efficiency and poor shooting) and situational play (team off long layoff with an injury).
As many on this board has pointed out, betting crappy teams is very frustrating and we know in basketball anything can happen, but I believe we have many factors on our side which makes this a nice opportunity to cash a bet tonight.
1-unit UNDER 141 on Matchbook (this bet has terrible juice and I might add .5 to 1-unit more on this game at around 140 with much better juice if given the opportunity)
Cooling off a bit so tread carefully (no write-ups yesterday but lost two small bets recorded in Billysticks thread). My big struggle is now that my semester is over I have much more time to study the games and have many more leans, the last few days I haven't chosen the correct ones to go with as my leans have been about 75% but I myself went 0-3 the last two days. My choices are: reduce my unit and play more games when I have leans or continue doing what I'm doing only study a handful of games and only bet my strongest lean. Good news is that it is a small, large favorite card and I don't see much that catches my eye. I will be around if anyone wants to discuss, going to try this write-up bullet style and possibly a bit less wordy (we will see).
Today a really like UNDER 141 Georgia Southern @ Evansville, my reasons for liking this under include:
* Evansville has had 8 days off including 3 days completely off from practice during finals week and I expect their offensive execution to be influenced negatively.
* Evansville also lost their starting point guard and this will be their first game without him, three freshman are going to share his minutes, this is another factor that I believe will cause them to be below average offensively
* Evansville spent the days they did practice on ball-handling, passes, and being more disciplined. While I don't believe this will make-up for the long layoff and injury, it leads me to believe that they are attempting to be more patient on offense and will possibly play a slower tempo for this game (as this has been a successful strategy for Georgia Southern's last three opponents)
* Kenpow has this game capped at Evansville 72-61 (and I believe that doesn't account for the injury which should bump down their team total), I like having those extra 8-points in this one.
* Evansville ranks 278 in offensive efficiency and Georgia Southern ranks 283 and while both play a slightly above average tempo, Georgia Southern last three games have had 57,61,59 possessions (average # of possessions is just under 69) so they have conformed to their opponents tempo and as I stated I believe Evansville will have a slower tempo tonight.
* Both of these teams has the ability to stink it up offensively, Evansville has scored 61 or less in four of its last five games and Georgia Southern has 59 or less in its last four games (Both teams are shooting 41% from the field in their last five). If either team just scores 60, I find it very hard to believe that other erupts for over 81.
* Evansville also only averages 3 made 3-point shots a game making the probability of them going off from behind the arc very low and Georgia Southern is a below-average free-throw shooting team and gets to the line less than 18 times a game. Both nice factors for under backers in this one
This is a combination numbers (offensive efficiency and poor shooting) and situational play (team off long layoff with an injury).
As many on this board has pointed out, betting crappy teams is very frustrating and we know in basketball anything can happen, but I believe we have many factors on our side which makes this a nice opportunity to cash a bet tonight.
1-unit UNDER 141 on Matchbook (this bet has terrible juice and I might add .5 to 1-unit more on this game at around 140 with much better juice if given the opportunity)
0
.. I like it. BOL bud
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