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CBI Game

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Posted: #1
The Saturday and Sunday Elite 8 games were profitable as I went 6-2 on FG sides and totals and 2-0 in 1H plays.  Unfortunately, I had a wedding and other stuff so I couldn't really incorporate my 2H system this weekend.

This is going to sound strange, but I've been looking forward to tonight's CBI game for a while, but only b/c I think I have a decent handle on how both UTEP and OSU play.

I haven't locked in any plays, but I have a strong lean on the 1H Over and OSU +1 for the game.

My thought is that UTEP will dictate the pace for the first 10-15 minutes of play.  Then you'll see OSU try really hard to slow the game down.  The 2H pace will depend on the score, but if it's a close game, you can expect OSU to keep trying to slow it down.

I have some #'s in mind that back up my two leans... would love to hear feedback and get a discussion going.
 
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Posted: #2
joe, great call on MSU.   i lost a lot of money on louisville but glad you made some at least...   I'm likin that 1H over as well...  but i might just parlay that 1H over with Utah 1st H.  
 
You got any leans on the utah game?  
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by Q_Line_Stunna:

joe, great call on MSU.   i lost a lot of money on louisville but glad you made some at least...   I'm likin that 1H over as well...  but i might just parlay that 1H over with Utah 1st H.  
 
You got any leans on the utah game?  


I am already locked in on the under at 213.5.  I like the def that Utah plays at home and the Knicks haven't been as explosive scoring-wise.  I like the under in this spot.
 
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Posted: #4

Quote Originally Posted by joe_shmoe:



I am already locked in on the under at 213.5.  I like the def that Utah plays at home and the Knicks haven't been as explosive scoring-wise.  I like the under in this spot.

Yeh the under looks like the right pick...   D Will slows the game down, especially with a lead.   and the knicks are runnin on fums, they playin their 7th game in 10 days...  you have any other nba locks?   I'm actually lookin for a nice parlay...  just cant get the right 2 - 3 games together...  

 
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Posted: #5
joe, take the nite off man , this is the degen specail-----------with that said- looks solid, lol
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by nc1capper:

joe, take the nite off man , this is the degen specail-----------with that said- looks solid, lol


That's the thing, I would take the night off, but I have seriously been looking forward to the UTEP/OSU matchup since last week! 

How sick is that?  My CBI and CIT picks have been doing pretty well after the initial couple of rounds.  I can confidently say that I've been paying closer attention to these games than the 90% of the people that are probably betting these games.
 
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Posted: #7
O. St will definitly try to slow the game down. But, will they be able to. They really slowed the game vs Stanford but they run nothing like UTEP does. They will however try, so my leans are UTEP and the under. BOL 
 
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Posted: #8
This is an approach I took:

I looked at all the games where OSU was playing a team for the first time in the season and the games were lined at above 127.5 or greater.  I basically wanted to see what happens when OSU faces a team that generally scores more/allows more scoring when they meet for the first time.  I suggest some of you take a look at that.

Also, if you have been paying attention to the more recent games, OSU has really been letting other teams dictate the pace to begin the game.  UTEP also has been very good at pushing the pace in their recent games.

My guess it that the game will start quick and then start to slow later in the 1H. 
 
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Posted: #9
I love UTEP tonite...but a road team in this spot may take a backseat...i played d1sport and the travel is tough...especially during this type of year...utep is by far a better team i wish they had a moneyline to win the series on my site cuz id put my house on utep....but i think if the pace slows down they could settle with a slow pace...try to score that way and if they dont say well we can get them next game and will do so....they are the superior team....im going hard on utep tonite and the whole series...thoughts
 
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Posted: #10
go wit utep they have superior guard play and its about time for OSU to get slaughtered
 
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Posted: #11
Joe, this game really wierds me out, on one hand  I think
Utep is the better team, and I have been hammering them
all year. So Im leaning toward Utep. But you bring up the
whole slow down the pace thing. I think that might affect
the whole mind set of Utep. I going Utep FG, and what ever
you decide on the o/v Im in.
I look foward to see what your play is.
Thanks and good luck tonight
 
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Posted: #12
How well does UTEP play , at a slower , Oregon St. , style pace   ?.....
Live long and throw deep ! Joe Montana
 
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Posted: #13
Joe--  Dont you think that a slow game favors Ore St. and if UTEP runs on offense and then has to to be very very patient on defense the overall game should favor  Ore St. and at home toboot, with a tired Utep. Funny game.
 
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Posted: #14
Joe I think the numbers say UTEP  OVER 30 and half First half.
 
OPIONIONS?
 
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Posted: #15
UTEP 0-0 0-0 0-0 7-1
OREST 1-1 1-1 5-10 4-5

UTEP OREST

 

Texas-El Paso NCAA
Average		 Oregon St.
  Offense Defense   Offense Defense
Points
1st Half
2nd Half 		75.8
33.9
41.1		 71.8
33.2
37.7		 68.1
31.6
35.7		 59.4
26.6
31.4		 62.9
28.8
32.8

using avg for year would have this at 60 for 1st half -- so I like the 60.5 line in the big game and non-conference.

But this get me nervous a little, but I think it is reflected in line already:

Under is 8-1 in Beavers last 9 home games.