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Friday's Plays 3/27

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Posted: #1
System got smoked on the 2H play in Memphis.  But hey, it was only off by 50 pts. 

2H system plays went 1-2 (probably should have been 1-1 as I forced a play).  First losing day for the system in about 2 weeks.

I think I was down about 3 units or so on posted plays yesterday.  So I'm basically flat since Monday.  Still have today and the weekend to cap off a decent finish.

Unlike yesterday, there's actually games I really like.  Here's what I'm locked in on:

Zags +8.5 FG (2.5 units) I am considering a small ML play on the zags
Cuse +1 (2.5 units)
Under 152 Cuse/OU FG (2.5 units)
Over 64 Kan/MSU 1H (2 units)
Over 138 Kan/MSU FG (2 units)

I'm also seeing some NBA games that I know I will be on.  Just waiting to see what the lines do.
 
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Posted: #2
Quote Originally Posted by joe_shmoe:

System got smoked on the 2H play in Memphis.  But hey, it was only off by 50 pts. 

2H system plays went 1-2 (probably should have been 1-1 as I forced a play).  First losing day for the system in about 2 weeks.

I think I was down about 3 units or so on posted plays yesterday.  So I'm basically flat since Monday.  Still have today and the weekend to cap off a decent finish.

Unlike yesterday, there's actually games I really like.  Here's what I'm locked in on:

Zags +8.5 FG (2.5 units) I am considering a small ML play on the zags
Cuse +1 (2.5 units)
Under 152 Cuse/OU FG (2.5 units)
Over 64 Kan/MSU 1H (2 units)
Over 138 Kan/MSU FG (2 units)

I'm also seeing some NBA games that I know I will be on.  Just waiting to see what the lines do.

Zags ML??? West cost bias is getting to you -- after yesterday this stat is 2-39. (You claim to be good at math - so thats 4.8%):

"One thing that really stands out in round 3 is that outright upsets are extremely rare once a certain number of points are laid.  Any supporters of Xavier, Purdue, Arizona, or Gonzaga this year who are considering making a money-line bet on their team, might want to consider giving that money to charity or buy your spouse something nice with it.  Since 1998 in the Sweet 16, underdogs of more than 5 points have a straight-up record of 2-37.  By the time you read this article, Missouri might fall into that Titanic-like group as they are 4.5 underdogs at the time of writing this piece."

 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by Ools:

Zags ML??? West cost bias is getting to you -- after yesterday this stat is 2-39. (You claim to be good at math - so thats 4.8%):

"One thing that really stands out in round 3 is that outright upsets are extremely rare once a certain number of points are laid.  Any supporters of Xavier, Purdue, Arizona, or Gonzaga this year who are considering making a money-line bet on their team, might want to consider giving that money to charity or buy your spouse something nice with it.  Since 1998 in the Sweet 16, underdogs of more than 5 points have a straight-up record of 2-37.  By the time you read this article, Missouri might fall into that Titanic-like group as they are 4.5 underdogs at the time of writing this piece."



Pitt almost made that number 7.1%.  UNC just doesn't play great defense.  At least the two #1 teams from last night can play some gritty defense and lock down teams for stretches.

Other than Radford, when's the last time UNC held a team under 70?  You have to go back more than a month.  I probably won't take the ML play, but I'm happy with the 8.5 I'm getting.
 
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Posted: #4
Gonzaga plays the right style and might well have the pieces to beat UNC. I'm just too scared to be against them after that ass raping I took with LSU +13.
GL
 
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Posted: #5

Quote Originally Posted by joe_shmoe:



Pitt almost made that number 7.1%.  UNC just doesn't play great defense.  At least the two #1 teams from last night can play some gritty defense and lock down teams for stretches.

Other than Radford, when's the last time UNC held a team under 70?  You have to go back more than a month.  I probably won't take the ML play, but I'm happy with the 8.5 I'm getting.

dam joe, i hope your wrong on this one...   but love the CUSE play!  

 
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Posted: #6

Quote Originally Posted by joe_shmoe:



Pitt almost made that number 7.1%.  UNC just doesn't play great defense.  At least the two #1 teams from last night can play some gritty defense and lock down teams for stretches.

Other than Radford, when's the last time UNC held a team under 70?  You have to go back more than a month.  I probably won't take the ML play, but I'm happy with the 8.5 I'm getting.

I actually have bet UNC on the ML - agree that they are avg defensively but athletic and can score - may play gonz with the points giving a juicy middle

 
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Posted: #7
been checking in daily, first time posting in here.  These were my leans, let me know what you think:
 
Louie 1st half Under
Mich St 1st half Over
Cuse 1st half Under
NC 1st half Over
 
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Posted: #8
Good luck Joe
 
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Posted: #9
really like syracuse
 
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Posted: #10
good luck smokin, hope you do well cause as you go I go, I just can't cap worth heck....
 
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Posted: #11
Some odd lines out there when looking at the Sagarin predictor lines/ratings - usually really close - but way out of whack -- value??
 
UNC/Gonz - line 8, predictor 3.3, value to dog 4.7
Lou/Az - 9.5, 6.4, value to dog 3.1
Mich St/Kan - 1, -1.67, value to dog 2.67
Ok/Syr - 0, .3, value to ok .3
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #12
Syr line jumping -1 Syr now --- 2 pt move in a few hours. i just dont see it. Already had 4 units on OK at -1 early because I thought it would go the other way -- may be taking a little more at +1
 
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Posted: #13
Good luck tonight Joe
 
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Posted: #14

OK-Syr FH line is 71 o/u game is 151 or 152,that seems off a bit,

Gonz-UNC FH o/u 76 seems high,but they could hit 80,but to much to bet imo.

All the services are on Syr.,thats why the line has went to Syr Im guessing. 

 
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Posted: #15
BOL.... at work again tonight without computer 
 
 
can u send it them out again.... worked great...... me following blind
 
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Posted: #16
 joe was liking under 188 in 76ers game till i seen ax likes it to now i love it
 
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Posted: #17
Alright adding:

NBA Under 188 Char FG.  Straight tail, but following the best.
 
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Posted: #18

Quote Originally Posted by joe_shmoe:



Pitt almost made that number 7.1%.  UNC just doesn't play great defense.  At least the two #1 teams from last night can play some gritty defense and lock down teams for stretches.

Other than Radford, when's the last time UNC held a team under 70?  You have to go back more than a month.  I probably won't take the ML play, but I'm happy with the 8.5 I'm getting.

That being said...wouldn't you feel more comfortable with the OVER 162 or 1st Half OVER 76.5?

Personally, I like the OVER 162 best in that game...

 
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Posted: #19
bol
 
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Posted: #20
go cuse
 
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Posted: #21
GL joe
 
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Posted: #22
Wasnt expecting to see you on ZAGS 2nite joe... i'm gonna have to go against you with that 1, im on UNC - 7.5
 
With you on CUSE, and MSU / KU Over FG
 
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Posted: #23
I'm honestly considering a little something on ARIZONA M-LINE!
 
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Posted: #24
I've also got a parlay 2nite... even though im trying to stay away
 
ZONA + 9.5
CUSE + 1
UNC - 7.5
KU + 1.5
 
BOL
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by ThePicksRHere:

I'm honestly considering a little something on ARIZONA M-LINE!

read post 3 above

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