N(ot) I(nvited) T(ournament) Plays

I'm going to go ahead and post plays.  I'm going small on these. I've had too much success/luck in the last month to blow it before I get to Vegas. With the NIT you never know who wants to be there or is even interested in playing.
  I use a lot of Conf. stats when I pick o/u's so this is a little tougher.  In these match-ups I try to find teams that resemble the another team in their opponents conference.  If that doesn't make sense sorry...it's late and i've been staring at numbers for hours 

Washington St. under 121(+.5)
There are only 3 teams out of 344 that play slower. 
They have the #6 Def. Eff. 
Washington St. is similar to SD(WCC) pacewise.  When St. Marys played SD the totals went for 107 and 126, with both times only scoring 65 points.  Problem is SD is not the same Defense.  I think St. Mary's put up maybe 60 in this game.  WSU had 12 out of 32 opponents under 60 points.  St. Marys Off. Eff. is similar to USC., but they played way easier D's.  USC put up 61 and 46 against WSU.  If you look back at some of the teams that WSU played, they have held a lot of great offenses to low scoring.  I just don't know that St. Mary's is that great on offense...especially with an off Patty Mills. Washington St. is 3-10 with totals higher than 120.

Providence over 147
Providence has scored between 70-84 points 15 out of 32 games.
Prov. has scored over 84 points 9 out of 32 games.
Prov. has scored under 70, 8 times this year.

Prov D has allowed between 70-84 points 11 out of 32 games
Prov D has allowed over 84 points 10 out of 32 games.
Prov D has allowed under 70 points 11 times this year.(Rutgers 2, South Florida, Charlotte, Maine, St. Johns, Depaul, Bryant, Rhode Island, Brown, and Cincy.)

Miami has good Off. Eff. and should be able to put at least 70 up with this uptempo team.  66% of teams are putting 70+ on them...the only team they held under 70 that impresses me was Rhode Island and that under was in the high 160's. They also allowed Rhode Island 39 points in the First Half.


12-2 over/unders in last 4 days of basketball

50-20 in last 70 NCAAB

125-61 Run in NCAAB

317-198 NCAAB '08-09 (185-100 o/u's)
66-62 NHL '08-09 +8.01 units(most bets 1-2 U's)
77-68 NBA '08-09
41-25 NFL '08-09
41-35 NCAAF '08-09
104-48 NBA '07-08

Leaning towards Prov over as well. Think this game ends up around 152-157

BOL

Alright off to bed Big day of estimating gold coins, skip-counting leprechauns, making green eggs(and ham), drinking green milk at lunch(someone is going to throw up), and listening to Irish Folk tales that my Grandfather used to tell me. 

HAPPY ST. PATTY'S DAY COVERS BROTHERS FROM ANOTHER MOTHER....
You can find me at the PUB at 3:45

KGC Im convinced you just look at the first college Bball team shirt you see on a kid in class and pick that team that day...

GL and have fun in Vegas!

wash st today  

Is wash st Under still a play at 119?

I dont think I can pull the trigger with WSU. I know they are a very slow paced team but also pretty efficient, and Pat Mills speeds up the ST. Marys pace. If he gets that shot back this is going to be a very close one IMO. I hope for the best but may just layoff.