Cincinnati/S. Florida writeup

Question

First posted play:Cincinnati -3Cincy seems to be an enigma this year as they have beaten some good teams (WV, ND, GTOWN) but lost to the other best teams in the Big East, as well as two bad losses to the Friars.  They looked like crap against Syracuse.  They have taken care of business so far against the soft underbelly of St Johns, Rutgers, and Depaul.  So I tried to figure out why they beat Gtown twice, WV and ND.  The answer seems to be PACE.  The teams that they lose too play a very up tempo game, whereas the the teams they beat play a much slower paced game (exception being ND)  Look at the rankings by possessions per game and the lower half are the teams that Cincy beats.  Providence, a roughly equally matched team by all power rankings crushed them.So where is South Florida?  The slowest pace team in the Big East.  The total is set at 121.5 for a reason.  This game will be lucky to get to 62 possessions - and that is just like Cincy likes it.  Add in postseason factors and I liie the Bearcats to win on the road comfortably.

BandosWB · Answer

First posted play:Cincinnati -3Cincy seems to be an enigma this year as they have beaten some good teams (WV, ND, GTOWN) but lost to the other best teams in the Big East, as well as two bad losses to the Friars.  They looked like crap against Syracuse.  They have taken care of business so far against the soft underbelly of St Johns, Rutgers, and Depaul.  So I tried to figure out why they beat Gtown twice, WV and ND.  The answer seems to be PACE.  The teams that they lose too play a very up tempo game, whereas the the teams they beat play a much slower paced game (exception being ND)  Look at the rankings by possessions per game and the lower half are the teams that Cincy beats.  Providence, a roughly equally matched team by all power rankings crushed them.So where is South Florida?  The slowest pace team in the Big East.  The total is set at 121.5 for a reason.  This game will be lucky to get to 62 possessions - and that is just like Cincy likes it.  Add in postseason factors and I liie the Bearcats to win on the road comfortably.

BandosWB · Answer

I will be away all day and must make my play in the am after I see what the money does.

If you see an angle that leads you to SFL (or reinforces the cincy pick), please post. This will be the only game I play tomorrow.

yosemitesam · Answer

I AM TOTALLY IN WITH CINCINNATI (THEY ARE BETTER THAN PROVIDENCE)...THEY ARE YOUNG BUT CAN PLAY!&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;I LIKE THEIR INSIDE GAME AND DOMINANCE ON THE GLASS IN THIS ONE!&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;I THINK THEY GET IT DONE BY MORE THAN 4

MDnightFlight · Answer

So. Florida no gimme Big East game (see: Marquette) but the Bearcats get it done.

Hbomb7 · Answer

Cincy needs to win these two final games so they have a shot at the getting into the tourney. They will be putting all they have into this game so I look for them to win this game.

Good write up on how they like a slowed down pace which is true and that's why they struggled against Syracuse last game.

Cincy -3

Smashedcrash10 · Answer

Think ur pretty dead on here Bandos, but I am also leaning over(very cautiously) Just a feeling I have&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Sidenote: Only USF Senior worth a damn is Verdejo avg 12.8, the others are nothing

MDnightFlight · Answer

Does Dominique Jones show up

yosemitesam · Answer

S.FLORIDA hits 59% from FT line..that in itself hurts them, FG % is 39.9%, that should hurt them, &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;DOMINIQUE JONES is GOOD BUT NO ONE ELSE! LOVE YANCY GATES INSIDE! DEONTA VAUGHN OUTSIDE!&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;BOTTOMLINE 18-11 and 8-8 in conference for CINCI&#xD;&#xA;S.FLORIDA 8-20 and 3-13 in conference &#xD;&#xA;CINCI is not good on the ROAD..but they still will win..3 point shooting, rebounding, playing a poor offensive team, &#xD;&#xA;CINCI is better than GTOWN IMO,,this team lost by 25 to GTOWN at home,

yosemitesam · Answer

VERDEJO IS OUT&gt;&gt;&gt;HE IS INJURED AND HAS NOT PLAYED IN THE PAST FEW GAMES!&#xD;&#xA;HE WAS THE KEY TO THE DEFEAT OF MARQUETTE AT HOME&gt;&gt;HE WAS ON THAT NIGHT!&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;CINCI WILL BE PLAYING WITH THEIR ASS ON FIRE TOMORROW! COUNT ON IT! THEIR DEFENSE SHOULD BE OUTSTANDING! PROBABLY WILL KEEP S.FLORIDA TO 35% shooting..and hopefully come out with less than 50 points for the BULLS

IceMan101 · Answer

great write up and info guy&#x27;s I won this past week and I&#x27;am looking to pound a game to start the betting week off (Tues-Mon)......love Cinci here also

mike1156 · Answer

Read Tampa Tribune tues  USF is Finished and injury depleated they will LOSE AGAIN

mjayp1 · Answer

Love Cincy -3&#xD;&#xA;might play ML and straight!!&#xD;&#xA;Nice write up Bandos!&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;I know USF is banged up.&#xD;&#xA;Mike Williams hopefully will be back for Cincy.&#xD;&#xA;I read on another thread that Cincy might have some platyers suspended ? I haven&#x27;t seen anything---anyone else hear that?

thetexaskid · Answer

cinncy should get it done here

mjayp1 · Answer

line is now down to -2.5 and it opened at -3.5&#xD;&#xA;I know williams was Quest. but that is an awful lot of $$$  to becoming in on USF.&#xD;&#xA;Anyone know anything?

wilterdink · Answer

Of course Cincy will cover...SF lost Jesus for tonight so they have no chance. Thx for the write-up. I too have been puzzled by Cincy&#x27;s inconsistency.

witzy418 · Answer

EXCELLENT WRITE UP&#xD;&#xA;HAVE CINCI AS WELL

jeffdaddy · Answer

Im on Cincy as well&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;BOL GUYS!!

BandosWB · Answer

Thanks everyone. I hit it at -3, buying the hook. Guess I should have waited. Still, the reverse line movement is worrisome, especially with Verdajo OUT (according to vegasinsider). Ideas?

Love to hear WOW's take on this game.

IlliniBill · Answer

Nice writeup. My favorite game of the day. Gettin  value in the line becuase of perception of last game against Cuse. Cincy gets it done tonight, and I know ,ust win is overrated term on here, but feel they bounce back nicely tonight. BOL

kiko13303 · Answer

gl bro i like it

ILPRATO · Answer

like your angle im on it .Good luck

BandosWB · Answer

Well I am man enough to admit that Cincy shiit the bed in the 2nd half.  Looks like SF tried to up tempo it as the over cashed by 7 pts. Cincy got there 59, too bad they allowed 70.  On to tomorrow.

Cincinnati/S. Florida writeup

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