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#1
Butler has a Top 20 RPI, and they are ranked as high as #10 in the national polls. They have absolutely no pressure to secure an invite – the Bulldogs are in the Big Dance already. For an ESPN game, the betting marketplace always tends to overvalue the mid-majors that the public is well aware of, like Butler here or Gonzaga (who lost the WCC final to virtual unknown San Diego last night as seven point favorites). The Bulldogs haven’t been tested in this tournament thusfar, with double digit wins and covers against Detroit and Illinois-Chicago to reach the finals, making anyone who supported them already in this tournament likely to come back for another try. I’m not going to call for the outright upset tonight, but this favorite is more than a tad bit overvalued here against a feisty Cleveland State team that should be able to hang.
Cleveland State head coach Gary Waters completely remade his roster this past offseason, bringing in nine new players and wiping away the dismal memories for a team that had been bottom of the barrel for the last five years, winning ten games or less each season. Clearly, the talent infusion made an enormous difference, as the Vikings finished #2 in the Horizon League, winning 21 games overall. Cleveland State beat Butler outright in the first meeting this year, then covered with ease in a five point road loss in February. The Vikings are here because of a stellar defense, allowing only 31% shooting from three point range for the season and 39% from the floor in their last five games. Cleveland State is also the much better rebounding team. Put those two factors together and we can expect this to be a tight, defensive struggle, making any type of a margin to be difficult to accomplish
GL
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