nOOb question about tennis betting

Question

Can someone explain how why the over/under implies the dog will fare well, but the spread (or asian handicap for euro bettors) implies the fav will do well?

For instance, for the Dushevina / Pavlyu match, Dush +4.5 games is -105 and Pavlyu -4.5 is -125. Pavlyu needs to win 6-4, 6-3 to win or some weird combination where Pavlyu loses one set close (i.e., 7-6 or something) but then wins the other set very decisively.

But the over 19.5 games is -130 and under 19.5 games is +110. Which would imply the dog will cover.

How does this work?

composite · Answer

Can someone explain how why the over/under implies the dog will fare well, but the spread (or asian handicap for euro bettors) implies the fav will do well?

For instance, for the Dushevina / Pavlyu match, Dush +4.5 games is -105 and Pavlyu -4.5 is -125. Pavlyu needs to win 6-4, 6-3 to win or some weird combination where Pavlyu loses one set close (i.e., 7-6 or something) but then wins the other set very decisively.

But the over 19.5 games is -130 and under 19.5 games is +110. Which would imply the dog will cover.

How does this work?

ogkush · Answer

There is no trend or anything involved. Dont look at it as the player might do better because the line is weird. The line will move higher when more people bet on it.The over 19.5 probably has more action hence the -130

sims_key · Answer

over/under high juice has everything to do with 1) possibility of a 7-6 set & 2) possibility of the other player winning easily.

7-6, 6-2 score makes Pavly -4.5 a win

7-6, 6-2 score makes Pavly u19.5 a loser

also the u19.5 gives you the chance to win if Pavly craps the bed and loses in straights.

nOOb question about tennis betting

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