* Down Under, great start!
1 - Soderling to reach R16 & Federer to reach SF -145 x 3 units
The named players in Soderling's section are some of the weakest in the draw. Starace is a nice opener, Istomin has looked poor so far, and Bellucci is still very inexperienced off clay. Qualifiers could be players like Raonic and Muller at worst, and you'd have to favour Soderling's class over 5 sets in those.
Only Simon, Monfils, Wawrinka or Roddick should remotely threaten Federer in that quarter. Beating Federer in a slam is especially difficult and he looked good last week. Wawrinka is probably too inconsistent to pull off the upset, Simon is unlikely to match Federer over 5 sets, and Roddick has never shown that he is capable of holding more than a momentary edge over Federer. I see the greatest threat from Monfils but his preparation for Melbourne has been limited through injury and he usually doesn't respond well to relentless aggression.
Thanks FancyClown good luck as well 
2 - Top 4 mens seeds to reach SF +1400 x 1 unit
Good value in this. I expect the top 4 guys to play QF matches as their draws are all fair. Djokovic could have early problems with Karlovic in R64 but distance matches give him the best possible edge there. I have discussed Federer's QF above. Nadal will most probably have Nalbandian or Ferrer. Both have beaten him on hard courts before but if Rafa is back to full form and health then he will find a way to win. Murray and Djokovic would have the toughest QF matches - probably Soderling and Davydenko as opponents. Soderling could blitz Murray with his heavy groundstrokes but a distance match in typical Aussie conditions should favor Murray. Djokovic's health problems especially in heat are well documented but at the moment the weather system in Melbourne is uncertain and he might get an evening match anyway. Davydenko is currently in excellent form but anxiety usually causes him to underperform in the biggest matches.
3 - Seppi o. Clement -137 x 0.4 unit
Clement is a fading star at the moment and Seppi should have the better fitness for a distance match.
4 - Dolgopolov o. Kukushkin -227 x 0.6 unit
Dolgopolov is a very talented player who should be comfortably a class too good in any department. He has been playing tournaments in Australia for the last two weeks and so should be acclimatised to the conditions.
5 - Cuevas o. Gil -164 x 0.4 unit
Could be a tricky match but this is one of the best draws Cuevas could have got. A better serve and a bigger game should get him over the line here.
Lol sims nice and concise!
6 - Chela o. Llodra +163 x 1 unit
The first of my value match bets for the tournament.
Llodra's motivation seems to be limited mainly to matches in French competition and on grass or indoor surfaces.
He has had no official preparation for this tournament although that is probably because he started his offseason later than everyone else and so wanted extra time off.
Chela gave a few positive signs in beating Stepanek in Sydney and if he can stay with Llodra over the first two sets he could grind him down over distance.
2 - Top 4 mens seeds to reach SF +1400 x 1 unit
Poor error made there. Forgot that Murray is actually no. 5 and Soderling no. 4.
Which explains the line!
I'll ride it out anyway. Soderling still ought to be fine up to R16.
Then it is Gulbis or Tsonga. Gulbis has been a little bit injured and Tsonga unconvincing in the buildup.
Then maybe Murray in the SF and as I said before it is winnable.
If it all rests on that match I should be able to hedge out anyway.
5 - Cuevas o. Gil -164 x 0.4 unit
7 - Fognini o. Nishikori +180 x 0.5 unit
-0.4 unit
-0.5 unit
After day 1: 0-2 & -0.9 unit
Slow start. Expected more of Cuevas but Fognini often disappoints.
My money is riding on three matches today as detailed above. Chela has been backed into favorite which I find interesting.
8 - Mayer -3.5 games over Nishikori -129 x 2 units
I have a strong lean on Mayer to get the job done and I was expecting something around the -5 game mark.
Nishikori is a talented ball striker but erratic. Not sure how he will cope with Mayer's unorthodox mix of slices, spin, slow balls and aggression.
3 - Seppi o. Clement -137 x 0.4 unit
4 - Dolgopolov o. Kukushkin -227 x 0.6 unit
6 - Chela o. Llodra +163 x 1 unit
+0.29 unit
+0.27 unit
-1 unit
After day 2: 2-3 & -1.34 unit
A lucky win on Seppi but unfortunately the main value play lost so it was another poor day.
Just Mayer pending into R64 and hopefully this is where my luck will change a little.
Nothing particularly leaps out at me for R32 so I'll ride the two futures bets I still have pending.
Federer played it close with Simon but I'm expecting a routine win over Malisse who plays a game that Federer is usually very comfortable with.
Soderling just needs to beat Hernych to satisfy one of the two requirements for bet 1 to cash. Even better for him that Hernych played a draining match with Bellucci.
Nadal should beat Tomic comfortably.
I'm a little concerned about Djokovic as this is the first match of the day and he wasn't sharp against Dodig. He does have much more class than Troicki so I'll have to trust that he will feel fine physically and put in a professional performance.
9 - Federer & Malisse under 128.5 minutes -116 x 2 units
Big motivation for Federer to be in bullish mood - to conserve energy and send a statement to his nearest rivals.
It is a day match so the conditions are quicker and both like quick points - Federer should be aggressive and Malisse hasn't the patience or fitness for long rallies.
Malisse in good form but serve percentages usually not much over 55% and gets tight in pressure moments.
Expecting at least one decisive break in each set for Federer - in very good form he can win in around 100 minutes.
10 - Wawrinka o. Roddick +128 x 0.5 unit
Wawrinka has been impressive this year and I expect him to dictate the rallies against Roddick - passive play is unlikely to work if Wawrinka continues to time his strokes well.
This should be billed as a night match - conditions will be cooler and therefore slower which will take some of the edge off Roddick's serve.
Roddick should be heavily reliant on his serve to remain competitive. I believe he can sneak through but if Wawrinka remains calm he can prevail even in breakers.
Soderling is through to R16 in Melbourne so the first part of wager 1 has hit.
Now I'm reliant on Federer to get to the SF. Robredo up next so I'm not expecting much trouble.
Wager 2 is still live assuming that Nadal beats Tomic. At the moment I have no intention of hedging his matches - nice draw.
Djokovic has Almagro next. Tough match especially in the heat of the day but I'm expecting a classy performance.
Soderling has the most danger as he plays Dolgopolov next and I have decided to hedge a little:
Dolgopolov o. Soderling +682 x 0.5 unit
Soderling should overpower Dolgopolov but if he isn't near the top of his game there are enough warning signs.
Dolgopolov is a shotmaker and unpredictable with what he does next - makes him dangerous in rallies with larger players.
I'm expecting another day match - advantage is that conditions will be quicker but also a chance that Soderling tires.
10 - Wawrinka o. Roddick +128 x 0.5 unit
+0.64 unit
After day 7: 4-4 & -0.98 units
The last of the QFs is decided tomorrow. If Soderling doesn't already lose to Dolgopolov, hopefully Nadal will survive against Cilic!
I'm undecided as of yet whether I will hedge wager 1 - Wawrinka is very dangerous for Federer.
12 - Murray to win the Australian Open +810 x 1 unit
Keeping this wager fairly small as he still has a long way to go but he has looked very good so far.
I am also encouraged that Nadal, Federer and Djokovic could be really up against it in their matches - especially Nadal if he isn't well.
If a surprise or two happens then Murray is in prime position to benefit - as long as he doesn't suffer a shocker himself.
Melzer is a nice matchup for him so I expect a tidy job tonight.
Soderling could hit him off the court on a good day but Murray defends well and is stepping up his aggression too.
He also mastered Soderling in London which is an encouraging sign.
The worst SF would be Nadal but he has played some classics against him before and has a good shot on hard courts.
A final against Federer wouldn't be great but he has more of a killer instinct at the moment which is necessary.
Simon really hurt Federer in R64 and Murray plays that type of game better.
Any other final opponent = he who dares wins.
Might look to trade if Murray gets through his next couple of matches.
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