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Anyone else dumb enough to bet Murray?

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Posted: #1
My main bet is Nalbandian -165 but I have Murray in some parlays with him and other picks as well. Bad move but Kohls looked like true hammered shit his last match and I figured no way could Murray sink any lower than he has.... I really thought he would come out more focused, but 2 winners 13 UEs the first set have me shaking my head. Only myself to blame but it is shocking how long his poor form has persisted.
 
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Posted: #2
I had a small play with Murray/Djokovic/Shiavone.....looks like Murray will blow that up.
 
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Posted: #3
stay away from murray and nalby in my book.
 
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Posted: #4
No...I was even dumber... I tossed in that worthless pile Monaco to even out a parlay with Ljubicic and Djokovic and of course he loses to a clay court reject in Berrer.
 
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Posted: #5
BP - Why the play on Nalbandian? I've got a 2U pending play on Youzhny...What's your thought?
 
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Posted: #6
We will see. I like Nalbandian way more. I was thinking about him at -200 but then they lowered it to =165 so I put three units on it. I think his form is good. Just because he ran out of gas against Nadal means little to me. He has not lost a match on clay yet since his comeback and clay is not Youhzny's surface, a guy who showed real bad form the last match he played on tour vs Soderling. Just IMO but I really like Nalbandian today.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by MDoggg1:

BP - Why the play on Nalbandian? I've got a 2U pending play on Youzhny...What's your thought?

I had a half unit on Berrer but not bragging because still down a half unit overall with my dog bets that cashed/burned today.
 
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Posted: #8
This match is just brutal to watch, a massacre.
 
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Posted: #9
 I'm just not going to play it...I was going big on Youzhny or not going at all...Given that you're on the other side and I'm not overly confident in the dog...
 
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Posted: #10
sry the reply about Berrer was meant for sparty444
 
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Posted: #11
What was the reasoning of putting anything on Berrer?
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by MDoggg1:

 I'm just not going to play it...I was going big on Youzhny or not going at all...Given that you're on the other side and I'm not overly confident in the dog...

do your thing man one of us would win. Big believer in Nalbandian here. He should have beat Nadal in two sets his last match but choked huge... I don't think he was mentally ready to pull the upset. I think unlike Murray, who is lost in a depressed funk, that he will shore up his forehand issues that cropped up last match. (issues he did not have any other match since his return)
 
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Posted: #13
bookies sure roped me in with this low line. Kohls could not hold serve to save his life for long stretches in his last match and that is why I made the bet but he has done what it takes today... keep the ball in play...

The true tragedy is that Del Potro and Davydenko are injured right when they have the perfect chance to pass Murray. He does not deserve to be in the top 5 the way he is playing, top ten even. He is sliding so far and not even fighting to stop it. I am shocked.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by sparty444:

What was the reasoning of putting anything on Berrer?

I think he has improved his game and that Monaco can be overpowered. It was a way of saying I do not think Monaco should be that huge of a fave against a solid top 40 caliber player. I had heard about Berrer's clay results but he looked real good vs Korolev. also gut instinct.

but I also thought Murray would fight hard today so um there ya go lol.
 
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Posted: #15
Monaco is injured, he needs surgery to his left wrist, will possibly quit this clay court season.
I am sure Berrer moved him around with his big forehand on the backhand side and Monaco struggled.

 
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Posted: #16
well at least i cashed on him last time. the murray stock should be at an all time low now. shockingly pathetic. dumbass bet but at least it was a parlay and I kept it reasonable. Hopefully Nalbandian gets me back to profit.
 
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Posted: #17

I know Monaco's wrist was hurting but I was shocked of how he was only capable of 1 break versus a player who doesn't have much of a clay court pedigree.

Disagree with the overpowering...you don't take sets of Gonzalez-Ljubicic-Isner on hards and then beat guys like Verdasco-Gulbis and Llodra without being able to cope with power.

I have Monaco as a top 10 clay courter on my sheet. I though the line was actually low and now I know why. Monaco-Berrer should have been like Ferrero-Becker or Golubev-Ferrer. But it wasn't

If you had Berrer

I

 
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Posted: #18
damn at 2-2 Nalby gets 15-40 and misses both chances

Berrer is way to good for Monaco to be -1200 vs him IMO no matter what the surface is. No point arguing against a -600 though, that is a hard argument to win. If they rematch and you would lay this juice again so be it but I would never trust Monaco as a monster fave. I would trust JCF or Ferrer before him, Nadal, even Wawrinka. Just thought the line was crazy high. If Berrer even has a 25% chance of winning you have to make the play. I guess I don't give surface as much credit as you. On a hard court I would barely favor Monaco at all over Berrer, I would pound Berrer at anything over +130, but just because of the surface change I am supposed to overlook Berrer as a +500?
 
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Posted: #19
Yeah, I hear you. Monaco is like my favorite claycourter.
I had something small on Berrer, mostly because of the injury but also because I saw Llodra win a match against a dirtballer like Fognini and his serve was very effective.
I thought that if Llodra who is an absolute disgrace on Clay could win against Fognini, Berrer against a semi injured Monaco could do it as well and +600 presented a bit of value.
Berrer is trained by Claudio Pistolesi of Italy who was a true claycourter in his days and as today he did play a good amount of matches on Clay in his career, so he is not a total mug.

Anyway, you can make your money back by betting Wawrinka vs Djokovic. I can't wait for the odds there.



 
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Posted: #20
Monaco is a quitter once the semis and finals roll around
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by depressed:

Monaco is a quitter once the semis and finals roll around


Yeah, in the last 5 years no man has won more clay court matches than him other than Nadal.

And also, last time I checked this wasn't a SF or a final either.


 
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Posted: #22

-1200? He was -600 in my parlay. I wouldn't include him at -1200

The injury was a bigger factor than I anticipated...a healthy Monaco doesn't lose to Berrer on clay...sorry

Berrer's problem has always been consistancy...like most players

I figured he would have a tough time hitting through a wall like Monaco. And would get inpatient and make errors. I didn't see the match so its hard to tell what happened. Maybe Berrer was awesome...maybe Monaco was garbage...would be nice to know for future reference.

Djoker looked out of sorts at times versus Serra....he has no confidence in his serve right now. He will not last long in  this tourney serving the way he did today. Wawa will be tough-tough-tough for Novak...thats for sure

 

 
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Posted: #23
I didn't bet Murray just because he's not a clay courter and the price was so low on him. It made me wary, but not enough to bet on Kohls.
 
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Posted: #24
bad guy takes the set

man that was the most bullshit bad beat ever for a set loss. nalbandian, what an epic choke man, what the fuck. he showed some mental weakness vs nadal but this was way worse. i still think he will win and i would pound him in live betting if i had the option. he should have won that set easily and i knew he would have  tough service game after youhz went up 5-4.... too many chances wasted.



ugly
 
 
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Posted: #25
Congrats to Youznhy backers it seems. He came back from 0-40 at 4-4 to hold, then break the next game to take the set. Bandy cannot be trusted right now. I put him in the category with Gasquet.
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