Shadier Line: Karlovic v Soderling (-185) or Clement v Haas (-120)?

I'm actually pretty good at betting tennis, considering I don't follow the sport really at all. I just look for a match that pays somewhere around even money (-150 or less). I look for a name that I actually recognize as a good tennis player, and if they are giving -150 or less to some no name person, I usually bet on the no name person.

Soderling is well known, and one of the top players in the country, so I definitely see this Karlovic line as being very shady. Any match with Soderling in it should be minimum -220 to -270 unless he's playing someone recognizable. I've heard of Karlovic, but he just seems like an okay player in my book.

Tommy Haas is a well known player. This morning I bet on Clement cuz I know he is a decent player. He'll beat the no names most of the time, but usually loses to the known players. So is this a shady line at all? How has Haas been playing lately?

Any other non-long shot plays out there? When I bet tennis, I usually pick a match for even money. I hate paying juice, so I usually pick a dog too. I've learned from experience that parlaying a buncha favorites is a crapshoot. One day all the favorites will win as expected, but sometimes allll the favorites will lose in one day. Take a lot of swings like that.

Has Haas played yet? How did he play? and what was the line? If it was another pickem line against a crappy player, I might take Clement again.

I learned a lot about shady tennis lines last week. Jankovic had nothing to play for, so she was given a pick line against some no name and beat her. The next day people started betting on her cuz it was even money again, and cuz she won the day before. Sure enough, straight set loser that day.

I heard soderling is in pretty bad shape, elbow pain, shoulder pain.  They say he is probably having surgery on the shoulder in the off seasin.  The main reason he is in Paris is because he still need a few wins to get into the Finals in London. 

I think Ivo has a chance, but man is Ivo terrible.  Talk about one dimensional athlete, Geeeez

I just pulled the trigger on Clement. Although, I do have a feeling that I should have played Karlovic instead. With a top 8 player that still needs to win, -200 still sounds very cheap against an inferior opponent. You also figure in with a known injury, the possibility of a bailout retirement which at some books makes a match void.

I was just looking at the head to head. Clement actually has a losing record on the season. They're same age and everything, but Haas is much taller, therefore better reach probably. Took clement cuz my book moved the line to -115 each. Was originally a lean on Haas. GL everyone. Even though I would feel dumb for not taking it, I hope Karlovic wins cuz I saw it as one of your plays AgainstDaConsensus

Let me clarify. My book originally had the juice higher on Haas and now it is even money. Hard to believe, but they have never played each other head to head. I shoulda known the LB had a winning record against Simon yesterday. So the only reason Simon was even money was cuz of the home field advantage really.

Although the swine flu has plenty to do with this line, I think home field has factored a lot into this line.

Wish I'd seen this thread sooner...

Clement's record for the year may not be that spectacular...but this indoor season, he has been playing very well

Right now the match is at 4-4, Hass got an early break but Clement won it back...we shall see if Haas has enough endurance in this one after his illness

Well I woke up to find a tie break in the third set and got in on all the excitement. Glad Clement came through for me, after I got the moose by LB losing to a guy with one leg yesterday.

Burning Planet, I wouldn't really call it a system. It's called reading the line just like in any sport. I look for a fishy line and bet against the obvious pick. Even though he was coming off swines, Haas is ranked in the top 20 players. The sealer was the later line movement moving towards Clement for me.