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Author:	[Pro Golf] Topic: OVERNIGHT LEADERS FADE MATERIAL
MrBogey	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Aug 2011 Posts: 2901 Location: Florida	#1 Posted: 4/21/2012 1:31:54 PM It is like clockwork, pressure makes these guys crack. I have a project for one of you guys that like stats, blairaj or stats1 seem to be good at numbers. We take the overnight leader, or leaders if there is a tie and look at the score for that round or rounds leading up to them leading the tournament. Now we take the following rounds score and compare that to the leaders previous rounds score(more than a single round if applies). Option 2- take the player leading and his score of the day he starts with the lead and compare his score to the next 10-20 players avg. I dont want to use the whole field because the bad scores will skew the average score. Unsure of sample size of rounds leading needed, maybe 2010 until now? Willing to tweak model if you guys have solid adjustments.
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blairaj	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Dec 2007 Posts: 969 Location:	#2 Posted: 4/21/2012 3:39:00 PM I do like to work with the math like that, that's the easy part. But I don't like to gather the numbers to work with in the first place. If I can find a good way to gather the right data, I'll look into it.
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MrBogey	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Aug 2011 Posts: 2901 Location: Florida	#3 Posted: 4/21/2012 11:18:21 PM Hey blairaj, maybe we could start with 2012 situations and go from there. Seems like that workload would be doable if you have free time?
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MrBogey	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Aug 2011 Posts: 2901 Location: Florida	#4 Posted: 4/22/2012 5:46:19 PM they just said that the 54 hole leader has player 12/13 final rounds over par this year
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