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Tuesday and Wednesday Champions League (5 unit play)

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Posted: #1
Hey guys, I'm posting my Champions League plays for Tuesday and Wednesday right now because I'm going to be a little caught up with school til then. Hopefully I'll find some free time catch the big game with Barca/ManU. GL to everyone.

UEFA Champions League

Wednesday
-Barcelona vs Manchester United-
Ok, here is the deal. Manchester United has had a great season, and I haven't heard of one single person saying they won't go through to the final. On the other hand, Barcelona haven't had a good season so far, but this is a COMPLETELY different game now. One of the main reasons I disagree with everyone about Manchester United going through is because of Barcelona's style of play. La Liga teams, as much as everyone hates to hear this, are pretty much better than teams in the Premier League, there is way more talent in those teams if you ask me, especially when you compare smaller clubs in La Liga to smaller clubs in the Premier League. No I am not saying Messi is better than Ronaldo or Eto'o is better than Torres, but you put a club like Wigan against a club like Almeria or Valladolid (two teams that were just promoted to La Liga), then Wigan, in my opinion, will get beat down. Barca play possession futbol. Manchester United? They play more of the long ball. Barcelona will frusterate them, and Barcelona will score goals. As far as Manchester United scoring a goal? Thats a tough one. I lean on YES. With Puyol missing for Barca, Manchester United will have a tiny bit of an easier time breaking through the defense. For me the BIG play is Barcelona. This will be my fifth 5 unit play of the season, (my record so far in five unit plays is 3-1). I'm also putting some money on the over as well as a play on Barcelona to go through to the final. If anyone has time on their hands, I suggest you wait out wagering if you decide to tail with this (other than the over). Barcelona at the Pk (-133) and Barcelona to advance (+149) should get way better as public will most likely be all over Manchester United. My guess is the Pk for Barca will go down to -115ish and the wager to advance should go up to +160-170ish before kickoff.
5 units
Barcelona Pk ... -133
1 unit
Over 2, 2.5 ... +104
2 units
Barcelona to advance ... +149

Tuesday
-Chelsea vs Liverpool-
This is a tough one in my opinion. Liverpool missing Gerrard? Yikes. Small play on Chelsea for me.
Chelsea Pk, +1/2 ... -108

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53.37% (+53.42units)
 
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Posted: #2
Hi Kid.. Not been posting myself.. in same boat as you.. Kinda busy..
 
I'm going to let my heart rule my head this week and my plays will be on qualification rather then betting singles in the four available games in the semi finals (in which point, I'll probably be tempted to back half time draws!!!). My pick at this stage is Liverpool to qualify, and pray for Barca as I'd rather face Barca in the final then Manure and obviously I want Liverpool to win the damn thing!
 
Your Barcelona analysis does touch on a correct point in that La Liga appears to be the stronger league, depth wise, but the British teams in the UEFA Cup have more then matched their supposed superior opponents like Fiorentina, PSV and Sporting Lisbon before they went out on penalties and in Bolton's case, went out fielding a weakened side. The big four in England though are much better then what Serie A, La Liga et al. has to offer imo. Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal would definately have no problems with the other big sides like Milan, Inter, Real Madrid, and Barca. The wildcard is Man U. 
 
In a repeat of last year, Man U, in recent games have appeared sluggish and tired with Ferguson rarely resting Ronaldo and Rooney earlier in the season thus they paid for that in the second leg vs Milan. On form Manure should qualify with ease. But I have a suspicion that the key to the game is not only the players like Rooney and Rafael Marquez(should he return in place of Puyol), but Alex Ferguson. His record against European superpowers is quite uneven and suggests a lack of tactical acumen. Given the way Roma sliced Man U opened in their home defeat, it is hard to see Barcelona NOT scoring given they have 5 world class strikers to call upon and Roma had none. Obviously questions about Barca's defence will be raised, and the key player for Man U will be Rooney. Stop Rooney and you stop United. For Man U the key will be making a solid defence even more solid. Owen Hargreaves will be the key in protecting the defence. 
 
If Ferguson plays Rooney on the left as he did vs Roma, they could have a chance of winning this matchup. For all of Barca's big game players, it is hard to equate their form to the CL. It's not a tie I would want to bet in. Though it'll be a fascinating game to watch and a must see for all football fans.
 
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Posted: #3
Liverpool, on the other hand seems a much easier bet to make. This is not a reflection on Chelsea as a team, but the manager, Avram Grant. Tactically inept, and his team selections at times borders on incompetent or star struck. Maybe I'm making this bet for the wrong reasons but there's no way in hell I'll back Chelsea as I'll be gutted even the bet wins. On form and on paper there's not that much of a difference between the sides, so I'm banking on Grant going with the biggest and expensive names and cocking up his substitutions.
 
GL Kid..
 
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Posted: #4
Amazing thoughts. Thank you guys. Both reasonings definitely made an impact.
 
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Posted: #5
 
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Posted: #6
I'm thinking about U2.5 @ L'pool - Chelsea, and maybe O2.5 @ Barca - ManU

GL Kid_A
 
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Posted: #7
Great to see you back Kid_A 
 
Nice writeup, and points well taken bud.  Here are my thoughts: Now, as some of you may know, I am a huge Barca fan.  Grew up rooting for them, and read up on them on a daily basis.  So it is with great sadness that I must disagree with your pick this week.
 
Let me expand:  Yes, Barca is [near] officially done in La Liga.  In fact, they are battling for 2nd spot with Villareal (2nd place receives a guaranteed bid to next year's Champion's) and frankly, they are dropping the ball on that front as well.  Their league form the past month and a half (where they had a multitude of chances to get to within 3-5 points of leader R.Madrid) has been inept and downright incompetent.  How many "must-win" games must Barca drop before people start realizing the blaugrana are in full free-fall mode?
 
Some may argue that they have mortgaged this season's fortunes on the Champions League, but I just don't see it.  They were lucky to draw the weakest team in quarterfinals (Schalke) and barely got past them, winning 1-0 games in both legs.  Have they been saving their stars for the CL games as opposed to La Liga?  Nope, Et'oo, Henry, Deco, Messi have all played in la Liga (when healthy and available).  Ronaldinho is now publicly meeting with both Milan's presidents (in addition to Man Citeh and Chelskie, among others), negotiating a transfer as soon as possible.  He is, for all intensive purposes, OUT for the rest of the season (and yes, what you hear is my heart breaking into 5,000 pieces).
 
To put this into a historical perspective: the Barca of the past 15 years or so has been characterized by 4-5 year "cycles".  Their management does a downright piss-poor job when buying/selling their star players, so it is not surprising that Barca has these "cycles" of greatness, followed by periods of financial turmoil and "rebuilding".  Look up their recent history, and they had their "Dream Team" era of the early 90's under Cruyff, followed by years of mediocrity, followed by a renaissance of sorts with the acquisition of Ronaldo, Rivaldo and Figo, followed by another 4-5 years of mediocrity.  Four years ago, Ronaldinho was brought in to mark the next "era" in Barca's glorious history, and I would argue with anyone that they have been the most exciting, effective, and entertaining team in Europe during the past 4 years. 
 
This week, I think that era comes to an end.  Ronaldinho's departure is almost sealed.  Henry is struggling adjusting to life in Barcelona whatwith his recent divorce (he is a 50/50 to leave at season's end, no matter what management says publicly).  Deco is officially on the trading block, and while Et'oo has pledged his loyalty to Barca, he yet maintains he will leave if they don't win any titles next year (not exactly a ringing endorsement/pledge of loyalty, if you ask me).  And Messi has been battling injuries basically since birth. 
 
So I ask you this:  How will Barca stop the momentum and power of the full-speed train that is Man U?  Does Barca even have a chance to draw at home with under-20's Bojan and Dos Santos in the lineup, let alone pull off a W?  Of course they do, anything in soccer is possible.  However, isn't it more likely that the powerhouse that is Man U will roll over them and put them out of their mysery for the current season?  Aren't the odds stacked against Barca that they will pick this game to awake their "total football" after basically sleeping through league games the past month?  To ignore all the political and transfer-related turmoil and band together against the all-poweful Man U? 
 
I'll definitely be rooting for it.  But even the fan in me doesn't allow me to go against what is likely the correct play here, which is Man U pick'em at plus money, and Man U to advance to the final. 
 
I'm staying away from this game (as a bettor), but I'll surely be rooting for your pick (as a fan).  My apologies for using your thread as a venue to lay out my thoughts, but I figured it'd be more helpful for anyone trying to gather info.
 
GL Kid, hope Barca takes it 3-0 in the first leg
 
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Posted: #8
Great thoughts Greenmonster.. Agree with ya, vs Liverpool, Chelsea not a chance, but vs Arsenal and Man U there's doubts in my mind whether they could qualify past Barca.. Maybe its my heart talking, but there's enough doubts to pick apart Man U's case for the final spot.
 
I just wonder if Man U could well repeat last season when they lost 3-0 in Milan. They looked tired then, with Ronaldo and Rooney disappearing. Don't forget they have a massive game vs Chelsea on Saturday to contend with before the return leg next week in Manchester. Saw them vs Blackburn and they looked devoid of energy. So Barca will have the fresher legs, most definately.. Defensively Man U look solid but Ferdinand and Brown in particular has looked vulnerable at international level and could well be found out vs the likes of E'to, Messi and Henry whose movement off the ball stand out.
 
I wouldn't shred too many tears over Ronaldinho.. He's not performed the last few years imo. When he goes, Barca will likely get their transfer fee back which is outstanding considering he's 28 and invest in the defence.
 
Bojan and Dos Santos should start on the bench??
 
Should be Valdez, Thuram, Zambrotta, Abidal, Marquez, Xavi, Toure, Iniesta, Henry, Et'o and Messi in a 4-3-3?? That on paper is more then enough...?
 
GL Greenmonster. Liverpool are right behind ya
 
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Posted: #9
Thanks for the input guys.And thanks for the thoughts Giant and Greenmonster.

Giant, just to clear one thing up, I didn't mean that Real Madrid and Barcelona are better than any of the top four sides in EPL. What I meant is that in La Liga, the smaller teams have more talent and give the big sides like Barca and Real a lot harder of a time than the big four get against small teams in EPL. Its too hard in my opinion to compare a team like Barcelona to a team like Liverpool. The fact is, both are great teams and you can find strengths and weaknesses in both sides to use in either side of that argument.
 
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Posted: #10
BTW guys, a quick update, Liverpool will actually have Gerrard fit to play for the match, so if anyone decides to take Chelsea, make sure to keep it small.
 
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Posted: #11
Kid A, does the possible absence of Henry change your opinion?
 
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Posted: #12
Hard to go against Liverpool in champions league at home but best of luck
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Wade21X86:

Kid A, does the possible absence of Henry change your opinion?


Not with Messi, Eto'o, Iniesta, and Deco fit. Henry possibly missing doesn't really bother me, he has died down a bit lately with his assists, and if anyone saw Messi play when he came on as a sub last weekend against Espanyol, he looked like a man possessed, they got unlucky not to finish their chances. It would be good to have Henry fit obviously but I'm not too worried.
 
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Posted: #14
good luck buddy. hope it hits
 
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Posted: #15
KidA, Giant-C,GreenM,
 
Covers doesnt have Pujols listed as missing the match due to card accumulation. I'm relatively certain that this is indeed the case; and Pujols is a real spark plug in the Barca D. I just dont see Pujols' absence not being a significant factor; and yet, nary a mention. He makes plays for Barca in the back.
 
This may be just enough to keep me off of Barca... but does make the over slightly more compelling (although the first leg of later rounds tend to be played close to the vest, w/ the home team not wanting to concede the away goal- and the away team typically happy with a draw.)
 
Tough call here gents; maybe a small play on the draw and/or the over. As yet undecided.
 
In todays match; Im leanin L'Pool.... mainly because Benitez has proven success in the biggest games (esp. in ChLeague)
 
Thanks all. and good luck!!!!
 
 
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Posted: #16
Well done Kid.. Fuming at Riise.. FFS.. How can a player paid 70k a week not be confident of clearing the ball on his weaker foot???? Feck me.. Even my nan can clear that cross.. Pissed as hell.. Still, we're still alive.. It'll be tough but hopefully we can grab a 1-1 draw or a narrow win.. Good luck on Barca.. If the Kop are going out the worst thing is seeing Manure in the final...
 
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Posted: #17
Good discussion fellas (giant_causeway, Kid_A, lonetree, etc), frankly I think anybody can make an intelligent, convincing case for just about any of the four teams in semis right now.  Here's more thoughts (related and unrelated to the wagers):
 
wouldn't shred too many tears over Ronaldinho.. He's not performed the last few years imo. When he goes, Barca will likely get their transfer fee back which is outstanding considering he's 28 and invest in the defence.
 
Agree, and disagree.  Seems like in soccer (or in sports general), we see fewer and fewer players stay with a given club for long periods of time while sustaining a high level of performance.  Especially more so in soccer, unless you grew up in their youth system (the Maldinis, Puyols, Gerrards), not many transfer stars seem to do well in a new club for over 4-5 years.  Seems just about everyone turns "stale" and ends up needing a change of scenary, and I guess Dinho's cycle with Barca is done, but my god did he provide memorable moments!  However, like so many times before, Barca will do lousy business selling Ronaldinho.  Do you realize Chelsea and Milan were offering 70 million EUROS last year for Dinho's services?  Goodness!  The most recent offer being thrown around by Milan?  30 million for 'dinho... AND zambrotta (who Barca paid 13 million euros a year and a half ago if i'm not mistaken).  Oh well, just another botched sale in the long history of the club (ie. Rivaldo being given away to Milan FOR FREE after winning FIFA player of the year and being top goal-scorer in the world cup that same year... Saviola leaving for free to R. Madrid this offseason...  Overmars... Petit... Quaresma... the list is endless)
 
Bojan and Dos Santos should start on the bench??
 
They probably should and will, but I have a suspicious feeling that they don't...
 
Should be Valdez, Thuram, Zambrotta, Abidal, Marquez, Xavi, Toure, Iniesta, Henry, Et'o and Messi in a 4-3-3?? That on paper is more then enough...?
 
That lineup sounds about right.  But Rijkaard never does the predictable thing.  He always throws at least one monkeywrench just b/c he is who he is.  Perhaps with the added scrutiny of this matchup, he might end up sticking "by the book".  Just keep in mind young Bojan has been carrying this team the past month or so.  I seriously wouldn't be surprised to see Thierry start the game on the bench.
 
Now... I've had a day to re-consider my thoughts on the game, and not much has changed.  Barcelona papers have published just about everyone and anyone who has anything to do with soccer's opinions as to how to "stop Man U", and 99% of them seem to run along the lines of "Cristiano is Man U's motor, stop him, and you can stop Man U"...  riiiiight.  Because that is such a novel idea and no other coach has ever thought about that before.  Now, Abidal is a very competent defender and marker, and I've even heard of Iniesta assisting in marking duties on the wanker by playing libero (he's done it a few times before).  But aside from on-the-pitch strategies, my thoughts on this game (and my little faith in Barca advancing) has more to do with non-sports-related reasons than with on-the-pitch strategem. 
 
As much as it pains me to admit, Barca is as bad as they come overcoming adversity.  They are NOT known as a team that shines when it matters... as putting forth that extra gear when most needed.  If anything, they seem to crumble when the pressure is on them, and I can't even remember the last time they came through when circumstances were dire.  When they struggle, they don't just lose, they free-fall.  When management has problems, they go into full crisis mode.  And aside from that memorable night at Wembley in'92 and two years ago against a 10-man side Arsenal, they have distinguished themselves by crumbling in the shiniest stage of world soccer.  (I attribute much of this to the fact that they've always liked practicing touch football and have always employed touch/elegant players in the Laudrup, Guardiola mold, and therefore have always lacked the aggresiveness of the British/Italian teams)
 
Now, every team and every roster is unique, and the past doesn't necessarily dictate what will likely happen in the future.  However, I'm merely stating that with all those powerhouse teams Barca have had over the past 50 years, they haven't had too many magical european nights to remember in the past, and that must be for a reason.
 
They very well may win.  I hope they win.  Hell, I'll yell at my 60" Kuro for two straight hours for them to win.  But fact remains - the bettor in me knows that homefield aside, given their current state of form, Man U pickem at plus money represents value here (yes... even at the Nou Camp)
 
ps. Henry IS available for tomorrow's match.  Puyol is definitely out (suspended), but he hasn't been as consistent the past 5 or so games, so hopefully Marquez won't do much worse.  (actually, scratch that, he will do much worse).  The key in this matchup will be the midfield play - 1) how well xavi controls the ball tempo + iniesta's creativity, and wing defense - abidal abidal abidal.
 
Either way boys, it's going to be a great great GREAT match tomorrow.  Here's hoping for one of Barca's magical european nights
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by giant_causeway:

Well done Kid.. Fuming at Riise.. FFS.. How can a player paid 70k a week not be confident of clearing the ball on his weaker foot???? Feck me.. Even my nan can clear that cross.. Pissed as hell.. Still, we're still alive.. It'll be tough but hopefully we can grab a 1-1 draw or a narrow win.. Good luck on Barca.. If the Kop are going out the worst thing is seeing Manure in the final...

I feel you giant, in the 5th minute of added time...  sheesh.

 
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Posted: #19
the red devils will win both legs of this tie, and on to the finals
 
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Posted: #20
but i am a little biased
 
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Posted: #21
All valid points GreenMonster. I do think, as you pointed out, Quaresma, Overmars, Petit, Rivaldo, Saviola, etc, all were bad business for Barca including Zambrotta who was 29 if i remember correctly and was always gonna see his value depreciate, but Barca have always leant towards big star name regardless of form. By signing aging stars and refusing to give a younger player a run in the side they've only themselves to blame. 
 
The New Yankees, the Galaticos of Real Madrid years ago are prime examples of names over youth. What Barca needs to do now is recycle their teams in an efficient manner with a blend of youth, experience, skills, brawn. Their front line is embarrassingly fantastic, but not all can play. Barca should've sold Ronaldinho 2 years ago for that price (70m Euros). We all remember Figo going for £35m to Real Madrid and subsequently replacing Figo with Beckham, a cash cow for the club who has made hundreds of millions off Becks. The point is star players are all good on paper, but it rarely translate to sustained sporting success on the pitch. If rumours are correct and Dinho is more interested in rowing with Rijkaard, E'to and partying, then why the hell should they keep him? If Dinho was a player with lesser ability would he still be at the club?
 
By not selling Ronaldinho now, wouldn't they be compounding their errors of the past? Sure they'd take less then they were previously offered, but as he ages it is unlikely his value will rise beyond the 16m Henry cost.
 
A great example is Arsenal. I'm a huge admirer of Arsene Wenger, not only for his style of football, but his philosophies. He must be the only manager of a G14 club with a transfer surplus in his tenure. The likes of Henry, Anelka, Viera, Overmars, Petit, Ljungberg, etc have actually made Arsenal tons of profit and all were sold (if we're playing deal or no deal) 1 year too late from their peak. Despite all that, they've still made a massive profit and consistently roll out young players with fantastic technical ability for next to nothing. When Arsenal's finances become more stable and the mortgage on their stadium become less of a burden, they are in a prime position to dominate in the next few years.
 
I'm in the same boat as you, as given Liverpool's result last night, there's nothing more I'd like then Barca knocking Man U out.
 
GL..
 
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Posted: #22
In Ch League play, how many times do we see teams step up and play phenomenal soccer? so many times smaller clubs- step up to play the goliaths- and unexpectedly outplay and outshine them.
 
ManU is a machine... a goliath above all others this season... premier league, ch. league, and wherever else they've strapped on their cleats to play some football. But Barca is no "David", they are a goliath in their own right, with goliath and historic expectations... those expectations weighing heavily on them... 'specially at home. 
 
Chances of ManU overlooking Barca..... none/ zip/ nada
 
Manu U last ten: No losses, 8 wins, 2 draws(sandwiched between Ch.League outings)
Barca last ten: 2 losses, 4 wins, 4 draws
 
Its hard not to take the superior TEAM (even on the road), against one with the pressure of their city (and all of Spain) on their shoulders... knowing their facing a machine.
 
ManU Pk +105
Over 2.5 +130
 
are my 2 plays; I just cant see losing them both 
 
G'Luck all!!!!!
 
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Posted: #23
Is there any L'pool fans on covers that don't think Man u is going to lose? I will flat out say I root for the Red devils, but come on. If they were playing anyone else, no one would be saying anything about barca. Talk about playing poorly lately. And yes, it was a draw on Sunday, but that game could have been 4-1 Man U if not for the American #1. I think this game could be 1-1 draw but I think Barca will push if they give up one and ManU will catch them with their counter attack. man u 2-1. GL to all with your plays
 
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Posted: #24
the finals will be
 
chelsea vs Barcelona
 
 
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Posted: #25
Bracks, I am a Liverpool fan but I;m also a bettor and a realist. Whilst Barca;s price was VERY tempting, i passed on that game.. For me it was too tight to call with many questions to answer. I have to say I'm surprised by the way the games have panned out.. Liverpool's game vs Chelsea was the more exciting to watch after many people had it down as bore 0-0 draw. The irony is Utd and Barca were chess-like which is not surprising given the stakes they were playing for.
 
From tonight's game, Messi and Et'o were patently not fit enough to reward some neat approach play. However while Barca did have possession for most of the game, they played too much through the middle. On the rare occasion they did go wide, the cross and final ball into the box were poor. Ronaldo, not for the first time, went missing yet again and he will have to prove himself on the biggest stage before he can convince anyone of his worth. Messi was not fully fit but had much more influence on the game then Ronaldo and he has bascially made my point regarding Ronaldo and Rooney's credentials for greatness.
 
After the first legs, I have to say Barca and Chelsea are in the driving seat. I do think Barca have the ability to go through with a score draw but cannot see Man U losing at home. Away goals or extra time is the scenarios I see playing out. Chelsea vs Liverpool is so much difficult to call given Liverpool's miserable record at the Bridge. Having watched Chelsea's previous game vs Fener, I am convinced, despite all the stats and general consensus, Liverpool can snatch a win or at the least gain a 1-1 draw. This might be my heart talking but it does make sense. GL..
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