Posted: 3/27/2012 9:05:15 AM
Hello everyone, Champions league is back . Took a nice day off on Monday time to get back to it today. I will lay off the Real Madrid game as anything can happen in Cyprus as we have seen over the season. It could be a blowout for Madrid or a with a low scoring draw. The value is just not there. My money is on;
1. Chelsea/Benfica to Draw @ 3.25/+225 (CL) 3 Units
Both teams come into this match off of 0-0 draws and will be trying not to concede. I think Chelsea will be very happy with a 1-1 draw and thats what I'm expecting. History spells out unders in the first leg but I think both teams might score and the value is just not there. Benfica have scored in all their home Champions league games this season but out of those six games only 2 went over and Benfica have won 4 and tied 2. Chelsea have not won any away Champions league matches this season and are a shadow of their former selves. Chelsea have also scored ( 1 goal in each match) in all their away Champions league encounters.
2. Shrewsbury ML/-0.5 @ 1.73/-137 (ENG L2) 10 Units
I'm making this my play of the week. Shrewsbury have not lost at home this season in fact not lost at all going back to March 1st of last YEAR, and sit in 3rd spot in the league. Port Vale are pretty much safe from relegation but are just going through the motions for the rest of the season. The only reason this match is not -250 is that it is a local derby. Shrewbury won the reverse fixture 3-2 in Port Vale and I hope they do the job today.
3. Crystal Palace ML/-0.5 @ 1.91/-110 (ENG Ch) 6 Units
Palace have been draw machines lately, but they still come into this match with way better form than Doncaster who sit second last in the table and are my pick to be relegated. The visitors have the worst goal differential in the league and manged only 1 win out of their last 14 in all competitions. Palace have only lost twice at home this season and I just don't see them dropping any points to bottom feeders Doncaster.