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November Mixed Sports Pick in Soccer Forum

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Posted: #1
Solid month for me in October picking up over 4 units.  Remember, my unit is 10% of my bankroll which is why I play so few plays.  My goal every month is 4 units so I'm 3 for 3 now and looking for my fourth consecutive successful month.  Good luck to everyone this month as well, let's make that money.

All plays are risking 1 unit unless otherwise stated.

November: 0-0-0 +0.00 units

 
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Posted: #2
Blackpool v West Brom o3 +123

Just don't see how this match stays under the number honestly so I will bite - everything is pointing toward the over and I'm not going to over analyze it.  The first thing I like is the way Blackpool plays in general - offense first.  Whether they are scoring goals or not, they do not play scared.  Blackpool has scored 5 goals in home EPL matches this year while conceding 7 goals.  On the flip side West Brom have scored 5 goals in 4 matches away from home but have had a brutal road schedule (Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal, Man U).  Now they get a chance to battle their fellow newly promoted Blackpool and I think they exploit their lack of defensive focus here tomorrow.  In their two matches last year, there were 5 goals in both as WBA won 3-2 home and away.  Good luck tomorrow folks.
 
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Posted: #3
, good thread, Im taking over as well!
 
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Posted: #4

I liked that play when it came out a couple days ago.  I know you dont like paying juice, but what concerns me is it was originally offed on 5dimes for over 2.5 at -143.....held steady for 2 days, and now I see it at -135 today...Im still going to play it, but that line movement is wierd, especially because many people on several other boards also like this play.

Thoughts?

Outstanding month for you in October

 
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Posted: #5
Martini
bake I think the main reason for the line drop is the possible absence of a few big names - Charlie Adam, Baptiste for Blackpool and Odemwingie for WBA.  However, my bet is more on the style of play that I see between the teams rather than the actual lineups in the game.  If Adam is able to go, then sweet, but I won't sweat it or use it as an excuse if it stays under. 
 
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Posted: #6
Best of luck this month, Arka!
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Posted: #7
What do you think about the O1 1st half?  Push at worst?
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by komputerguy:

What do you think about the O1 1st half?  Push at worst?


Inclined to agree that it's a push at worst but a tad bit too juicy for me. Good luck if you choose that path.

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Posted: #9
Just tailed on this one. I need some afternoon action but I took O 2.5/3 -111. Let's do this
 
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Posted: #10
Blackpool v West Brom o3 +123

Literally speechless at the amount of blown opportunities by both teams in the final minutes.  No way this should've ended 2-1....

November: 0-0-1 +0.00 units

 
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Posted: #11
NHL Grand Salami o16.5 -110

This is a steal in my opinion.  Usually Grand Salami's are cushioned with a goal or two above the sum of the game totals but not tonight.  Obviously there are only 3 games but I expected this to be closer to 17 with juice on the over or 17.5.  Is this a trap? Maybe - but I don't really see Grand Salami's being a good place to trap the public.  All 3 games have a great chance of being a shootout or at least going over the number.  Philly averages nearly 4 goals at home, Carolina's scoring woes only seem to be evident at home - 3+ goals per on the road.  Chicago has scored at least 2 goals every game this year, New York has been good for 2+ goals in 6 straight games.  The night cap has a struggling Devils team that is really the only team that worries me, but they will at least contribute goals because of their lame defense against a talented Vancouver side.  Bottom line is that this line is too low to pass up so I will be on it tonight.  Good luck folks.
 
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Posted: #12

I love both Flyers and Rangers to go over with 7 goals in both...
Also like the Nucks game to be hig scoring, but placed only a unit on it @ +135 -- big value imo...
 
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Posted: #13
NHL Grand Salami o16.5 -110

Not the start to the month I wanted but oh well.  Be back tomorrow if there's anything I like but at first glance I probably won't be back until Wednesday.  Good luck folks.

November: 0-1-1 -1.00 units

 
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Posted: #14
FC Copenhagen v Barcelona Draw +401

Value value value.  Copenhagen plays very strong at home and with how they are cruising through league play this year you know this fixture has been circled all week.  Okay, they just lost 2-0 at Camp Nou, we all know that.  However, they played well and had a few golden opportunities to tie the score 1-1 before Messi put them away for good late.  Today, I think the home field advantage plays a big part of this fixutre.  While Barcelona can clinch a spot with a win it doesn't necessarily mean they need a win and in all reality a draw will satisfy both teams here.  Copenhagen play great at home, as shown by their 2 wins thus far in the Champions League against Rubin and Pant and I think they have plenty potential to get a result here against the better team.  At 4/1 the price is just too good to pass up for me.  Good luck folks.
 
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Posted: #15
nice call.
 
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Posted: #16
 
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Posted: #17
FC Copenhagen v Barcelona Draw +401

Pedro hits the post in the 92' to stop my heart but overall a correctly capped game so I will take the great payout.  Be back tomorrow (eying Cluj v Bayern over).

November: 1-1-1 +3.01 units
 
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Posted: #18
Congrats arkadymo 
 
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Posted: #19
 
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Posted: #20
Very nice call, Ark, you're getting better and better at catching those very nice value plays at big plus money prices. Great job bro.
 
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Posted: #21
club
bake
dufresne
MW
beest

Thanks for the support fellas - always nice when you hit a big play like that.  Capping tomorrow's games as I type this - will post if there's anything I like tomorrow.


 
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Posted: #22
actually, you can almost call it quits for the month, as you are 1 unit away from meeting your goal.
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by bakemcbride:

actually, you can almost call it quits for the month, as you are 1 unit away from meeting your goal.


Just because I have a goal doesn't mean there's not a ceiling
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:



Just because I have a goal doesn't mean there's a ceiling


Fixed.
 
 
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Posted: #25
CFR Cluj v Bayern Munich o2.5 -107

This line is a gift if you ask me.  This group has had a ton of overs thus far and don't see any reason why this over isn't at least -120.  Okay, Bayern have a few injuries but the lineup they will be putting out there today is still plenty adept at scoring.  Cluj at home has been good for at least a goal and I see Bayern still being able to win this and clinch their advancement to the next round.  2-1 final here at the least, good luck folks.
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