Thursday NCAA - Rutgers vs. USF

I'm with you BigEast.

I dont think who is better matters. Who plays better matters most. Not trying to be a wise ass just saying this college season has been wacky with a lot of upsets and wins that werent that favorable lookin at the matchups. Heck last week FSU on the road favs vs WF. WF came out victorious...not saying you didnt have it that way (dont know not the point tho). But the better team doesnt always win. Me and you can sit down and list the games similar to this one. Look at OU rolling over opponents 4-0 ATS 4-0 SU headed to Colorado -23 favs? Heck i had OU in a 10.5pt teaser and still got burnt cuz Colo won SU.

I'm leaning towards Rutgers because USF imo is due for a let down. What better way vs a desperate Rutgers team at home (lost last two there) on a nationally televised game. Its supposed to be Rutgers the favorted if we flash back to the beggining of the season...but USF top 3 ranked school the "Who are they?" by casual observers. I see Cinncinatti at the only team remaining on thier schedule that could defeat USF and maybe thats thier let down game? I dunno but I like Rutgers Thurs to win.

Quote Originally Posted by BigEastExpert:

Took it on the chin last week and it's time for me to move ahead.

 

After starting the season a documented 75% ATS in college football, I have analyzed my recent losses and have made some adjustments.

 

Thursday Night:

 

Rutgers +3

 

I look for the home dog to pull off the outright win in this spot.  Expect a frenzied crowd to create a very tough environment here for traveling USF squad that has been red hot.  Earlier in the year I was one of the few cappers to call USF +7 to cover vs. WVU and they pulled off the outright upset.  Now I am calling for another Big East home dog to respond.

 

If you want to recall a game from last year, here it is.  Louisville came in to Rutgers last year in a similar setting.  Undefeated and in the top 5 laying a soft line.  The result?  Rutgers won SU.

 

Stopping Rutgers' 2 dimensional attack on the road will be more difficult for USF to defend than the WVU run game on home turf.

 

Beware of Big East home dogs as we head into the homestretch of the season.  Does not always apply, but it applies in my system here.

 

Rutgers cashes on Thursday.

 

USF -3 seems too good to be true...think about it...

 

Good luck.

 

From the Defensive side I can tell you the Assistant Coach and Defensive Line Coach Dan McCarney will have these boys fired up....he is very much a great coach that knows how to motivate his players.

I actually look at this differently on the Pt Spread.......The Home team if all is equal should be a 3pt favorite....there is a reason they are dogs in this contest by almost a TD (6 pt swing on the line.)

Rutgers is living off of last years season and there are going to be games like this where they should be bigger "dogs", but the East Coast will keep this line closer than it should be.

I look at this as about a 4pt line gift as the spread should be closer to a TD.