"Between the Tackles"

"Between the Tackles"
Forum: College Football

Author:	[College Football] Topic: "Between the Tackles"
az49erdog	PM az49erdog Joined: Oct 2003 Posts: 1144
Veteran	quote#1 Posted: 1/7/2013 1:09:53 PM This is going to be one of the most brutal, in the trenches defensive battles we've seen this year. Both coaches will want to play it safe and be conservative on offense and a lot of clock will be run off. What sets this game apart is the level of commitment to achieve the goal of a national title. In that Alabama has the experience and the jewelry to go with it, I lean to the "Tide" for the win. That being said, I am taking the points with an "Irish" squad that has defied all odds to come from virtually nowhere to attain the #1 ranking in the country and most of all, they earned it. With a punishing defense and a vastly improved offensive set, these guys ain't chopped liver. They deserve to be where they are and the numbers bear it out. I know that Vegas sets the line based upon public sentiment and raw numbers, but all things being equal, take away the playoff experience of "Bama" and these two teams are pretty much even across the board. I see a 2-3 point edge for Alabama and thats only based on their previous National Title experience, so 9- is an inflated number to me. I also see this going under the posted total of 40(interesting to note the opening total was 42). My gut tells me this is a low scoring affair with Alabama winning by a FG 20-17 GL all Comments?

Wizerguy	PM Wizerguy Joined: Jan 2005 Posts: 15126
MVP	quote#2 Posted: 1/18/2013 4:45:46 PM So you were one of those guys that thought ND was going to cover that 10pt spread. You got a lot of nerve jumping into my thread and bashing my stats. That rhetoric up top sounds like it came from some simple minded 10 year old arguing with one of his little buddies on the way to the candy store. Maybe if you learned something about pure points and opponents power ratings you wouldn't be betting with your gut and losing your a$$, Here's the pure points math model on that game and your inflated number NDame L4 road gms USC 15-13 80.5 B,Coll 14-6 54.5 Okla. 17-13 85.5 Miss St 17-3 75.5 63-35 74 63 -35 = 28 +12 (3pts for ea rd gm) div by 4 gms= 10 pppg ND's a.o.p.r. > 74 +10 = (84 Road rating) Off 16 Def 9 N.Dame is beating their ave opp power rating of ( 74) by 10pppg, giving them an 84 road rating. ND is coming into this gm scoring 16 pppg. ?? Thats a real good offense going up against Alabama. They had a good defense at 9 pppg but look who they played. a 3rd string QB vs USC. Boston College chokelahoma and Miss St. ( real good teams there) no wonder they got smoked. 48-14 _____________________________________________________ Alabamas L4 rd games Georgia 30 21 93 LSU 21-17 89.5 Tenn 30-13 79 Miss st 28-3 77 109-54 84.5 109-54= 55 +12 = 67 div by 4 games = 16.5 pppg Alabama a.o.p.r > 84.5 + 16.5 = (101 road rating) NDames road rating -->84 Alabamas road rating -->101 Thats a 17 pt difference. advantage Bama and you thought the -9 line on the game was inflated. Boy do you have a lot to learn Alabamas Off 29 Def 13 No wonder ND got smoked. They had no offense even comparable to Bama and the defense got tired out because they couldnt get off the field Off/Def of both clubs ( Pure Points) ND 16-9 nice offense going against Bama D with their S.O.S Alab, 29-13 You do remember what the final was The key to the game was Alabamas strength of schedule 84 compared to ND's 74 ( +10 superior schedule for Bama) and my line showed Bama by 17 because when you compared the 2 road ratings ND >84 Bama> 101 thats what you got + 17 pt differential 48-14 Final Even a line of Alabama -17 was even to soft and you thought 9 was inflated. What a dipsh#t. Wants some advice: stop gambling and don't quit your day job because you know squat about sports wagering Learn something instead of shoot-n your mouth off homer SF -4

Wizerguy	PM Wizerguy Joined: Jan 2005 Posts: 15126
MVP	quote#3 Posted: 1/21/2013 12:26:04 AM

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