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Author: [College Football] Topic: "Between the Tackles"
az49erdog send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
az49erdog
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#1
Posted: 1/7/2013 1:09:53 PM

This  is going to be one of the most brutal, in the trenches defensive battles we've seen this year. Both coaches will want to play it safe and be conservative on offense and a lot of clock will be run off. What sets this game apart is the level of commitment to achieve the goal of a national title. In that Alabama has the experience and the jewelry to go with it, I lean to the "Tide" for the win. That being said, I am taking the points with an "Irish" squad that has defied all odds to come from virtually nowhere to attain the #1 ranking in the country and most of all, they earned it. With a punishing defense and a vastly improved offensive set, these guys ain't chopped liver. They deserve to be where they are and the numbers bear it out. I know that Vegas sets the line based upon public sentiment and raw numbers, but all things being equal, take away the playoff experience of "Bama" and these two teams are pretty much even across the board. I see a 2-3 point edge for Alabama and thats only based on their previous National Title experience, so 9- is an inflated number to me. I also see this going under the posted total of 40(interesting to note the opening total was 42). My gut tells me this is a low scoring affair with Alabama winning by a FG 20-17 GL all

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Wizerguy send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Wynn Las Vegas |
Wizerguy
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#2
Posted: 1/18/2013 4:45:46 PM

So you were one of those guys that thought ND was going to cover that 10pt spread. You got a lot of nerve jumping into my thread and bashing my stats. That rhetoric up top sounds like it came from some simple minded 10 year old arguing with one of his little buddies on the way to the candy store. Maybe if you learned something about pure points and opponents power ratings you wouldn't be betting with your gut and losing your a$$, 

Here's the pure points math model on that game and your inflated number

NDame L4 road gms

USC      15-13   80.5
B,Coll     14-6    54.5
Okla.     17-13   85.5
Miss St  17-3  75.5
             63-35    74

63 -35 = 28 +12 (3pts for ea rd gm) div by 4 gms= 10 pppg

ND's  a.o.p.r. > 74 +10 = (84 Road rating)

Off 16
Def  9  

N.Dame is beating their ave opp power rating of ( 74) by 10pppg, giving them an 84 road rating. ND is coming into this gm scoring 16 pppg. ?? Thats a real good offense going up against Alabama. They had a good defense at 9 pppg but look who they played. a 3rd string QB vs USC. Boston College chokelahoma and Miss St. ( real good teams there) no wonder they got smoked. 48-14

_____________________________________________________

Alabamas L4 rd games

Georgia 30 21   93 
LSU       21-17   89.5
Tenn       30-13   79
Miss st     28-3    77
         109-54      84.5

109-54= 55 +12 = 67 div by 4 games = 16.5 pppg

Alabama a.o.p.r > 84.5 + 16.5 = (101 road rating)

NDames road rating -->84
Alabamas road rating -->101

Thats a 17 pt difference. advantage Bama and you thought the -9 line on the game was inflated. Boy do you have a lot to learn

Alabamas Off 29
                  Def 13

No wonder ND got smoked. They had no offense even comparable to Bama and the defense got tired out because they couldnt get off the field


Off/Def of both clubs ( Pure Points) 

ND     16-9      nice offense going against Bama D with their S.O.S
Alab,   29-13

You do remember what the final was  


The key to the game was Alabamas strength of schedule 84
compared to ND's 74  ( +10 superior schedule for Bama)

and my line showed Bama by 17 because when you compared the 2 road ratings ND >84  Bama> 101  thats what you got + 17 pt differential

48-14  Final   Even a line of Alabama -17 was even to soft and you thought 9 was inflated. What a dipsh#t. Wants some advice: stop gambling and don't quit your day job because you know squat about sports wagering

Learn something instead of shoot-n your mouth off homer

SF -4     






                             

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Wizerguy send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Wynn Las Vegas |
Wizerguy
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#3
Posted: 1/21/2013 12:26:04 AM
 
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