Posted:
#1
Greetings freakshows 
An early happy holidays to all.
Going for our 4th winning bowl season in a row and 8/9. GL to everyone.....Hoping everyone has more money than they started with when all this is done.
Nevada +9
We (believe) that we have success in bowl games - and - the feature games during the season b/c contrary to what people think - sometimes more information is BETTER. More posts are BETTER. More opinions are BETTER. We love to sift through everything and find out IF there is a hole in the logic of betting a certain side in our opinion. An example will follow in post 2....
Back to this game. Perception.
1. Arizona will kill them. Look at that schedule. Well no doubt they played tougher. But they also got killed by the two teams featuring running QBs. There is no doubt they have played better teams. But. Will that matter today in a low level bowl game when they are laying 9-10 pts? In other words - would you still bet Az at -17? what about -35? Hey that schedule is SO tough. Well you have to take the point spread into account. In our view that is exactly why it is 9.
2. Nevada gets stopped in bowl games running the ball. Read this a lot. OK. One game was vs. BC who had #1 rush D. One was vs SMiss who had 20th ranked run D. One was against NMexico who came in with #26 rush D. Today they get the swiss cheese D of Arizona. I say this is a different ball game.
Motivation? Well it is either neutral or in Nevada's favor. Never like to lay DD in a crapfest bowl.
Nevada very balanced and QB completes 66%. They will be able to move the ball. Arizona is flaky enough to spit the bit at some point. Backdoor open all day.
GL everyone
MEGA
MEGA0
Funny.
GL with the over - Playing the under may be the right play but can you imagine cheering for those defenses for 3.5 hrs??
Mega
Good Luck
Hot Forum Topics
