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Author: [College Football] Topic: Championship Week and Bowls Thread
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#1
Posted: 11/29/2012 2:47:52 PM
I haven't had much success posting picks historically. Tried this in 2010 and failed miserably. I have been posting on another website this year and it has gone just as bad.

Figure, I'll put the picks out there and maybe some discussion will help me refine the process.

Championship week:

Rutgers-Louisville: No pick. I capped it as Rutgers -1, they need the game to go to the Orange Bowl. I see this being a push, if I was going to play I would probably buy the hook to Rutgers -2.5. But, I'll stay away.

N. Ill - Kent St: No pick. I see this is a  N. Ill win but, I don't like it a TD. I have teased N. Ill with UCLA, see below.

UCLA - Stanford: No pick. I can't imagine UCLA played up to their real game last week knowing that a loss meant they could avoid Oregon on route to the Rose Bowl. I don't see UCLA winning but, I imagine they keep it close.

Bet #1:
6.5 point teaser - N. Ill pk, UCLA +14.5, 2 units to win 1.6 units.

I think N. Ill wins a close one and I think UCLA keeps it close. I like adding the second TD for UCLA. This teaser brings both lines past a key number, 3 for N. Ill and 14 for UCLA.
Lets hope this is the start to a good bowl season.
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#2
Posted: 11/29/2012 5:00:34 PM
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#3
Posted: 12/1/2012 8:58:59 AM
Bet #1 was a winner. 1-0, +1.6 units. Rationale was spot on. Lets hope the success continues Saturday.

Noon games

Bet #2:
OKST -5, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
I have this game capped at OKST -10, so I feel pretty comfortable that they win by a TD. The game is pretty meaningless overall and might simply help with bowl slotting - a win for OKST might mean the Alamo bowl instead of the Valley of the Sun bowl. Either way OKST has covered 6 straight times versus Baylor. Plus, although common opponents doesn't always mean much it can when the field is the same - they both played TCU at home and they both played in Norman and OKST fared better both times.

Bet #3:
OK -6, 1.1 to win 1 unit,
I think this one is all about motivation. OK doesn't have a great record in Fort Worth and I am not a huge Landry Jones fan. But, TCU hasn't covered a home BIg 12 game this year and OK can win a spot in the Fiesta bowl with win and a Kansas St loss. I think it can happen.

UCF @ Tulsa, no pick. I have UCF winning this game but, its the CUSA and really I have no feel for the game.

Kansas @ W. Virg, no pick. I have Kansas covering this game and W. Virg winning by 2 TDs. But, really who feels comfortable betting on Kansas? I'll stay away.
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#4
Posted: 12/1/2012 2:27:55 PM
Guess I totally read OKST wrong today, will be baby-sitting the OK bet for the second half.

Afternoon Games

MTST @ Ark St, would love to take Ark St here, as I believe they will win the Sun belt here. However, 10.5 just seems a touch too much. No pick.

ULL @ Fl. Atl, gonna pass on this game entirely. I like ULL but, it smells much too much like the Baylor-OKST (which is going terribly). No pick.

Boise @ Nevada, lots of history here. Gonna pass, as the MWC is already decided and the bowls are already selected. No pick.

Bet #4:
Cin -4 @ Conn, 2.2 to win 2 units
My best pick of the day. I have Cincy winning this by 2 TDs.

NMST @ Tex St, no pick.

Bet #5:
Alabama/Georgia u49.5, 1.2 to win 1,
I see Alabama shutting down Murray. Saban should outcoach Richt. Georgia has failed on this stage before, 'Bama not so much.
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#5
Posted: 12/1/2012 2:32:23 PM
Good Luck
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#6
Posted: 12/1/2012 6:32:12 PM
Night games

Pitt @ USF, really tempted to bet Pitt but, you just never know with these guys. No pick.

Tex @ K. St, I think this line is sharp as a tack. I have it at K. St -10.5, so no value, no pick.

FSU@ GaTech, if I could get FSU under 14 I would be all over it but, this has back-door written everywhere.

Neb @ Wisky, I like Wisky here and I may splash a half unit on them before kickoff if the afternoon games both win.

Bet #6
S. Ala +7 @ Hawaii, 2.2 to win 2,
I put this right up there with Cincy. I think Hawaii is terrible.
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#7
Posted: 12/3/2012 3:01:06 AM
Went 3-3 for +0.1 units. LOL, almost not worth doing. At least I didn't lose money.

Can't wait for bowl season to start. I'll start listing some bets as soon as Bet365 has some lines up. At first blush I am leaning SDST, ULL, W. Kent, SJST, Cincy, W. Virg, Vandy, LSU, OKST, S.C., Wisky, Florida, A/M, Ark St. and ND.
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#8
Posted: 12/6/2012 12:27:42 PM
I've locked in a couple of bets.

Bet #7
Navy -7 vs Army, 2.2 to win 2 units.
Wish I would have waited a few days, made this bet on Monday when line came up and now I see it is down to -6.5. Oh well, I truly believe Navy wins by a bunch. Army has only two wins and they came against BC, who was historically bad this year, and AF, who they always get up for. Well, Navy beat AF too, and they did it on the road.
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#9
Posted: 12/6/2012 2:11:28 PM
Go away for a day and miss some line movement. Got scared this morning by some line moves and have locked in my first two bets of the bowl season.

BOWLS

New Mexico Bowl:
Bet #8
Nevada +9 vs Arizona, 2.2 to win 2 units
This line opened at 10 and I thought, Nevada's not my favorite play of the schedule but, I would take them if it moved up. Now, I see maybe smarter people than me agree with Nevada. So, I've locked this in. I had it capped at a pick'em, so I feel good about 9 points.
Also, may splash a little on the over if the total stays around 75 - I see something in the 80's.

Poinsettia Bowl
Bet #9
SDST +3 vs BYU, 2.3 to win 2
Again, the line movement has prompted an early bet by me. I listed SDST as one of my favorite leans and I was hoping for the line to climb over 3 but, it has moved the other way. I had to buy a half a point here - early bird missed the worm here.

I do have a lean on Utah St for the Potato Bowl but, again, I am hoping to get it below 10 with paying for it.

One thing I do find confusing is all the love I see everywhere for Duke. I get that it is there motivation for Duke, this being their first bowl in like 17 seasons but, the talent level is just so off. I have Cincy winning this by a bundle . Will continue to hold off as the line drops - maybe I can get it below 7.
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#10
Posted: 12/15/2012 3:40:48 PM
Potato Bowl
Bet #10
Utah St -9.5 vs Toledo, 1.2 to win 1
The Nevada game looks good after 3Q. Doubt Arizona is going to score 28 unanswered. So, I'll go ahead and splash a unit on the Aggies just for action. (The downfall of every gambler, I know).
I think the motivation for Utah St. is huge, a chance to show last years bowl appearance was no fluke. They should be able to keep up with Toledo. They only lost twice, close ones to Wisky and BYU. That's pretty good competition. I bought the hook to avoid a potential push.
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#11
Posted: 12/21/2012 10:00:21 AM
Well, that might have been the worst 4th quarter I have ever seen in a college football game. SDST was terrible all game and fighting to keep it close and just collapsed.
I hope viewers realize how important the BYU punter was. That linebacker got a lot of attention but, he is not in position to make any of those plays if not for that BYU punter and coverage team.
Also, I would love to see the television ratings for that game. It was on a major sports network here in Canada. And really, with all the debate and legal motions in Canada and NJ, politicians just need to look at this game for proof of the popularity of gambling. Gambling is the ONLY reason anyone watched that game last night. It was otherwise unwatchable.

Champions week Record: 3-4, -2.1 units.
Bowl Record:2-1, +0.7 units
Total year Record: 28-34, -26.65 units

Bet #11
UCF -7 vs. Ball St
UCF -7, 2.2 units to win 2
I'm feeling too much love for Ball St. Can't imagine all the people threads I read are that smart. I really don't have an edge on this game either way. And I'm pretty square, so, I'll throw some money on UCF. Probably my least favorite bowl match-up of the year. It narrowly beats out Texas Tech - Minn for most bland bowl.
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#12
Posted: 12/22/2012 12:15:53 AM
Saturday Bowls

Bet #12
ULL -5.5 vs. E. Carolina, 3.6 units to win 3 units (bought hook)

My biggest champions week/bowl bet so far. There is always talk about motivation during bowl season and I don't really see how people judge that. To me, this game has it. ULL is trying to prove themselves to Div 1 football. They won a squeaker last year and had a good season this year. The program is on the up swing. This is pretty close to a home game and a big win help sthe recruiting effort against in-state rival ULM. ULL lost close to Florida, E. Car lost big to S.C ULL crushed Tulane (albeit at home) and E. Car barely eeked one out over Tulane. I know its not always good to work off common opponents but, when I combine this with my own capping method, which gives me a score calculation of 36-29, and my belief in ULL's motivation, I think this is a winner.

Bet #13
Boise St -5.5 vs. Wash, 2.2 to win 2 units

I don't like Washington. Period. As a team, as a football program, or their coach. I know a lot people are down on Boise St after Martin, Moore and their WR's all left the last two years but, I think they have the best coach in by Browse to Save">college football. I have Boise winning by 2 TD's, I think their D can put a stop to Washington's offense. Lets hope their QB can actually put up some offense against an opponent other than Hawaii or Colorado St.

Bet #14
Boise St/Wash u 53, TCU/MSU u47.5, 6.5 pt teaser, 2 units to win 1.5 units.

This one will take a few days to pay off as TCU/MSU don't play till the 29th. I think these games are both going to be super low scoring - maybe similar to the Utah St-Toledo game. Boise St is going to stop Washington, I have Washington scoring 14 or less, and in the TCU-MSU game I have them both scoring less than 17 points.
Now, I am universally bad at totals. Plus, bowls tend to be a little higher scoring, so I have teased these two up.
Good wishes for a long, clock grinding drives and booming punts.
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#13
Posted: 12/26/2012 1:40:06 PM
I won my biggest bet of the bowl season so far with my ULL bet. Going big again with the Sun Belt tonight.

Bet #15
W. Kent -6 vs. CMU, 4.4 to win 4 units.

I think that CMU is one of the worst bowl teams out there. While W. Kent did struggle down the stretch and lose their coach, they have Petrino coming on and will want to impress - if they are not already receiving advice/coaching. It is W. Kent's first ever bowl game as far as I can tell. I've said before its hard to cap motivation but, I have this as a 9 point W. Kent win, I think CMU is terrible and if there is any motivation out there it should be with W. Kent.
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#14
Posted: 12/27/2012 2:54:55 PM
Terrible call on yesterdays game. Not sure I could believe that WK's qb would be that bad, nor their interim coach stupid enough to NOT play for OT.

Anyway, down a bunch now on bowl games, lost a few in a row. Looking to bounce back on a busy Thursday of football.

Bet #16
Military Bowl
BG +14/U 52.5, 6.5pt teaser, 2 units to win 1.6 units

I have SJST winning this game by 7 and a score in the high 30's. But, recent performance of interim coach's in bowls has led me to think SJST is not going to perform well today. Maybe they win but, this teaser allows me to get over the 2 TD spread. Plus, I doubt the game gets into the 50's. BG defense should hold SJST offense, and if SJST wins going away, then I doubt BG can keep up, so again, it shouldn't get into the 50's.
Maybe 27-14 SJST. I would be great with this outcome. Same goes for 24-21 SJST. I could see both scores.
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#15
Posted: 12/27/2012 9:52:04 PM
Bet #17
UCLA/Baylor o80, 2.2 to win 2
Placed this bet on Tuesday. Total has continued to rise, so I feel pretty good. UCLA will have to open up to keep up with Baylor.

Bet #18
Baylor +3.5 (bought hook), 2.4 to win 2
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#16
Posted: 12/27/2012 9:54:29 PM
gL bro
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#17
Posted: 12/28/2012 1:50:47 PM
Crazy by Browse to Save">day yesterday with the Cincy game and the Baylor game.
I've had a pretty spotty bowl record so far. I'm 6-5, -1.4 units. On the season I am 32-38, -28.25 units. Not a good season. I kepp losing my big bets.

Time to start looking at some ml dogs.

Dogs are 3-8 SU so far, so I expect a little move back toward par. Starting today with Ohio.

Bet #19
Independence Bowl
Ohio +7 vs. ULM, 3.3 to by Browse to Save">win 3
Ohio ml, 1 to win 2.25

These teams are very similar, there is no discernible statistical difference. They have similar sack ratios, similar 3rd down conversion ratios, similar amounts of penalties per game, and I see the game being a 31-28 game either way. The reasons why I lean Ohio are two-fold. One, is turnovers. Ohio has a +14 turnover margin to ULM's +8. This may not seem like a big difference but, when you isolate interceptions you can see that ULM's qb has thrown 12 picks in 12 games. Ohio defense has 10 picks in 12 games. I think at least one pick is going Ohio's way and in a game this close, that could be the difference. Ohio's qb, Tettleton, while a little erratic, only has 3 picks this year; I like that security.
The second reason, is I see lots of ULM love on the various boards I look at. I have this game capped (neutral field, no turnovers) at 31-28 ULM. That's a pretty close game. I feel pretty good with those numbers because they "magically" line up with Vegas total - pretty odd. If Ohio gets one or two turnovers, they are going to win this game outright. They won their first bowl game in a while last year and I think maybe a trend starts today.
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#18
Posted: 12/28/2012 5:02:03 PM
It is not very often that I cap a football game that well. It is even more unheard of that I point out what a team does bad and then that team promptly commits that folly twice in the first quarter.
I highly doubt ULM is going to score 4 TDs, unanswered, in the 4th quarter, so I am going to mark down both ml and spread as winners and move on to the Russell Athletic Bowl.

Bet #21
Russell Athletic Bowl
Rutgers pk, 1.1 to win 1
Rutgers +8.5/u47, 6.5 pt teaser, 2 units to win 1.6 (made this bet last night)
I think Va Tech may be a little unmotivated here. They have been a BCS team I think 3 of the last 4 years. They had a terrible year. The turnover ratio is massively in favour of Rutgers and additionally Logan Thomas has thrown more than a pick a game. Rutgers has 21 sacks in 12 games and Va Tech gave up 21 in 12 games, so I expect Thomas to go down a few times today. Conversely Va Tech has a terrible pass rush and Rutgers has only given up 8 sacks this year. It will be low scoring but, I think Rutgers should grind this out.
I will probably stay away from the game tonight. I have it as Tex Tech -12.5, which is pretty close to the posted line at Bet365. Not a lot of value and I see no motivation either way, I see no statistical edges either way. I stated earlier in this thread, this would be one of my least favorite games to watch and thankfully I will not be around to be tempted to watch it or bet on it. Even if I lose both Rutgers bets, it will be a positive day, so I'll settle for that.
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#19
Posted: 12/29/2012 2:32:49 PM
Bet #22
Syr +4, 3.3 to win 3

Bet #23
Navy +14, 2.6 to win 2
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#20
Posted: 12/29/2012 2:32:56 PM
Bet #22
Syr +4, 3.3 to win 3

Bet #23
Navy +14, 2.6 to win 2
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