Week 11 NCAAF w/write-ups

Navy -2 @ Troy 60

Troy’s last 4 games have gone flying Over the total, and I see no reason to go against that here.  Troy has given up 31 or more points in their last 4 games and Navy has scored at least 24 in their last 5 (all W’s).  Troy gave up 390 yds rushing and 42 points to Navy last season.  Both teams are avg’g around 5 yds/carry and allowing roughly the same.  As long as these offenses don’t settle for FGs in the red zone, 60 is definitely within reach.

O60 play

Minn -3 @ Illinois 45.5

The Illini are a dead nuts “go against” team right now:  they’ve lost 6 straight, allowing 41 ppg, 5 of their 7 losses this season are by >= 28 points (!), and they’ve lost 11 straight B10 games.  Meanwhile, even when Illinois has been decent and Minny has been down, the Gophers have had success in this series—4-1 ATS at Illinois, 6-2 H2H.  Illinois has protection issues, allowing 32 sacks on the season, and will be facing 2 of the conference’s best pass rushers in Wilhite (#2 in B10 with 6.5 sacks) and Hageman (5 sacks).  Minny is coming off of a disappointing loss last week and needs a win to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2009, so motivation should not be an issue for them.

Minn -3 play

Kent -6.5 @ Miami-Oh 56

This looks like a reasonable price to back a Kent squad that boasts the #21 rushing offense in the nation, going against the 115^th ranked rush defense.  Kent is also #1 in the country in TO ratio (Miami is 79^th).  Expect the Miami-Oh rush defense to be even worse without DT Johns, the “QB” of the DL.  The DL has definitely missed their other starting DT Austin Brown this season, a pre-season all-conference pick.  Meanwhile Kent looks pretty healthy, especially for this late in the season.  I look for Kent to control the game with their rushing attack, which will help them build and maintain a lead vs a decent Miami passing offense. 

Kent is 6-1 ATS in their L7G, 8-2 in their L10 MAC games.  Miam-Oh is 2-6-1 ATS in their L9G. 

Kent -6.5 play

GL everyone!!