Week 8

1-1 last week, 32-30 total

Just needed a week off...played a couple games...and still juiced out. Kind of disgusted with my bets and that there's some things I just never learn. Might be time to close up shop if this week sucks but I won't bother bitchin' about it...

Nebraska -6
@ Northwestern

Revenge, bounceback, bye week...an entire page of vocabulary in Nebraska's favor. Lately, this defense needs to have a shitty game, get yelled at for a week or two from Pelini, and then they step it up. NW won last year...that always helps. 2 weeks to prepare always helps. The OL could use a bounce back game as well. They had a few penalties @ Ohio St after playing pretty well in the prior games. So...both sides of the ball got their asses kicked by Pelini.
Pelini has already said Burkhead will play. (Per Omaha.com) He's clearly not 100% but Ameer Abdullah is a fine backup.


Georgia -28
@ Kentucky

One of the worst pass defenses vs a big play offense quarterbacked by an NFL talent. Maybe UK's entire safety corp will be injured this week, too.
Yeah...a 4 TD road fave. This pick has to be the capping equivalent of "suicide by cop." 


Michigan State +11
@ Michigan

UM is on a roll and looks awesome but Purdue and Illinois will do that to your team. MST has the talent to contain Robinson. They keep it within a score.


Penn State +3 -115
@ Iowa

Penn st never gives up...that's all I'm looking for right now. Iowa is well coached but still might feel good about beating MST last week. Teams that are satisfied are usually flat. 


Wyoming
@ Fresno State -15'

Fresno St hasn't been able to INT the ball...ever. This year, they already have 13. Huge improvement in pass def. Brett Smith is a gunslinger and will sling one or two to The Bulldogs.

South Carolina +3 -105
@ Florida

Cuse

Im looking hard at things this week GL to you bud

Michigan State +11
@ Michigan

UM is on a roll and looks awesome but Purdue and Illinois will do that to your team. MST has the talent to contain Robinson. They keep it within a score.



I don't understand why/how this line is +11. Tons of value on the spartans. This is a day game right?

Penn State line is definitely off.  With you on Fres and S Caro as well.

Boom_Boom; no doubt you'll get rolling.  Good luck

Laroja - Just looked it up to be sure...still scheduled for 3:30 EST. Agree the line looks too large. I'm guessing it's because Michigan has been rolling over teams with no defenses. Guess that's expected to continue vs a team with a D? Good thing we know better than that...
On another note...your new avatar breaks my heart. I miss the lesbos! (Hell...I can't be an adult ALL the time.) Anyway, we get to see the NFL shield in more spots.  Good luck this week.

mws - Cool, glad to be on 3 of the same plays. The Fresno St line looked a little weird. I don't pay attention to every line but I don't remember too many -15'.

nice card LJ as if that ever makes a difference this season, on Neb and looking at UGA and Fresno, BOL this week bud

Nostra; Yeah, what ever happened to the good ole days...when everyone thought only the NFL was shady?

4 totals I like...if you like 'em just wait...they'll obviously all move in the direction that gets you a better number.

Minnesota @ Wisconsin UNDER 45

Wake Forest @ Virginia UNDER 53
WF will just hang around and play conservative until VA makes a mistake. The mistake will eventually come. A good reason to consider WF +3'.

BYU @ Notre Dame UNDER 41'
First one to 6 wins.

Kansas State @ West Virginia OVER 72'
I really hate totals this high but I will just fire all the guns this week.

______________________________________________________

That might be it for games this week. If I add anything, it'll be from this list of leans:

Ball St -3

WF +3'

Cincy -7, situation favors Toledo but I like Cincinnati. I like the CIN DL to be disruptive as hell. I think that style will prevent the players from coming out flat on defense. Now what about offense? Might be worth a look at the under. I can see Toledo's defense fired up and the Cinci offense flat.

Indy +3 was going to play it..then saw their rush defense stats. Umm...maybe not.

LVille -7 Bridgewater could go crazy in this game. USF DB's don't secure INT's very well. He could toss the pass right at their chests and the ball would harmlessly bounce off.

Best of Luck Brother 

The line on MSU/Mich is so high b/c MSU can't score.  I agree 100% that MSU is A TON better defensively than Purdue & ILL, but Michigan will get into the endzone a time or two, and maybe a FG or two. I'm not sure if MSU will find the endzone more than once?  Their offense is really bad.  This score could easily be 20-6.  24-10.  

Nasty lookahead for UGA. But Kentucky might just be that bad. 

gl this week my friend

Hey doubleup; thanks. (Answered the Syr question in doubleup's thread...) I might play Ball St because of your thread...

rLp - I do expect UM to win and break the streak. I'm thinking Hoke wants a conservative game plan & he just wants Robinson to protect the ball. So I think it'll be more of a struggle. Like a 17-9 type score; a field goal battle...

I'm not on the under because there's still a chance Denard gives the game away by chucking and ducking like the ND game. I can see a scenario where the Mich St defense could outscore their own offense. (But not counting on that, of course.)

Arid_Torpor - Ahh, the cocktail party. Actually, I'm not thrilled about them playing FLA next week. But  I just decided to say to hell with it...GA is coming off a bye week and wants to hit someone. Maybe UK doesn't hit back. UK had a couple WR's give up on plays in the 2nd half of the FLA game.

shakey12381 - best of luck to you too.

Cuse.

BOL

Take a look at Georgia tech bc over 61.5 before it goes over 63 

rLp - True. QB's are better at home and the ND game I referenced was on the road. OK, the disagreement is how efficient Denard will be this week. 

I still wonder if Hoke trusts Robinson but it sounds like you have a better read on that situation than I do...

It's so much easier to disagree with an adult. At least neither of us will be posting burning bags of money in the others' thread on Sunday morning. GL this week. 

Examiner 2009

shakey12381 - I didn't give that total a thought when I looked at that game. Nothing really stood out but I'll give it another look. Thanks.